05/06/05 FCST: KS/NE/CO

[Mike Peregrine]

Mike - haven't been following overly closely since I can't make it out west today ... but just to touch on your possible target area revision in NE Kansas ... RUC model skew-t indicates marginal shear profiles near progged WF position ... doubt if there will be adequate forcing to overcome the cap in NE Kansas today during daylight hours. Just a hunch - but we will likely see a nocturnal MCS type system over NE Kansas later tonight. In my mind the best target position remains over extreme NE Colorado ... would really like to be in Limon or Burlington to see what happens today ... nice work thinking outside the box, btw.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Made a title change to incoporate the threat in Colorado today...

I was quite content with ignorning the weekend forecasts since I have no chance to chase them. But, I guess I can't do it now!

This setup has a few reminders of what happened last May 10th when conditions looked great up north and a mother-load of chasers pitched camp in Wyoming only to miss out on 7 great tornadoes near I-70 in Colorado.

Storms today will likely form in the mountains and slide over the I-25 coridor this afternoon before moving into higher CAPE east of I-25. Storms will probably intensify rapidly as they move east.

The RUC indicates a narrow band of 500+ J/kg along the front range at 0z; most of the higher values in the far Northeastern part of the state. At that same time, a long E/W bubble of 150+ SRH centered roughly around Ft. Morgan is progged; storms moving into this enviornment may have a good chance in this area where CAPE and SRH are at a max for this part of the state. At 0z, the RUC has precip breaking out over the Eastern portions of Denver and moving along I-76 into that area of CAPE and SRH. Theta-E isn't too bad, again, increasing further east and north.

Also worth noting the SE corner of Colorado... as I mentioned in a previous post in the TALK thread, Amos is playing down south and it doesn't look too shabby down there, either; so I think he has just as much if not a better chance to score as those up north do. CAPE values at 0z range between 1000 and 2000J/kg over the SE corner with a CAPE max near 3000J/kg centered over the 3 corners of the TX/OK Panhandles and NM. Right around that same area, the RUC nailed a small bulls-eye of over 400 SRH, so with that, I'd probably be sitting in Clayton, NM and follow the storms right along US Hwy 56 into the OK Panhandle. LIs and moisture are much better down there as well.

I guess it depends on your preference as to which corner you want to play. I think better looking storms down south, better chance of storms up north (better forcing).