I'm a little surprised at how far north the MDT risk is on the 6z. Given the latest model solutions, I'd think that the SPC will drag the MDT risk down to the south-southwest about 150 miles. With nicely backed flow east of the sfc low, good moisture pooling (advection being aided by 50-60kts LLJ noted on area VWPs and profilers across TX and OK), and sufficient flow aloft will yield a tornadic supercell risk by afternoon.
I'm a little mystified by the 0z NAM solution at 250mb this afternoon. AS others have noted, the 250mb flow is progged to be quite weak over central OK. However, this is right where the NAM blows up QPF (Jim LaDue noted a possible convective parameterization side-effect). This is also right where we see an enhanced 500mb and 700mb jet streak / shortwave. I'm a little suspicious of this... If we toss out the 250mb forecast as being too affected by a convective parameterization effect, then we should also toss out the 500mb and 700mb forecast as well, since those show suspicious-looking small-scale jet streak in the same area. Regardless, new 0z NCEP WRF indicates ~50kts at 500mb, though it too shows a weakness at 250mb.
Tds >65F not having much luck making it too far past Austin, for what reason I do not know. Regardless, we may see elevated moisture (with higher mixing ratio than at the sfc) that may actually mix down higher dewpoints this morning. Add in evapotranspiration (which has seemed to add 2-3F to the dewpoint the past few days) and moisture pooling along the front / OFB, and things could get interesting. I'm not as inclined to head into KS, but that all depends upon what the surface map looks like by noon-time (non of the models had widespread cold pool / very low Tds in KS associated with the pair of MCSs that have rolled through there in the past 8 hours).
The Norman NWSFO is starting to bang the drum for today:
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE("Norman AFD")</div>
WE THINK THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND PROGGED INSTABILITY COULD EASILY SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS - AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES -
ACROSS N HALF OF OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE AND STORM-SCALE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO THAT.
STORM-SCALE FACTORS MAY BE MINIMAL AS THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS
NOW ARE EXITING THE NE CORNER OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED
CORES ACROSS N OK. THIS ALL MAY MEAN AN ACTIVE DAY AHEAD. [/b]
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http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOUN/0604240906.fxus64.html
I haven't heard the "v" word (violent) mentioned in regards to tornadoes by the Norman NWSFO in quite some time (May 29 2004 was the last time IIRC -- if not it was back on May 8 2003)...