04/10/05 TALK: Central Plains

With the amount of Colorado chasers talking and planning for Sunday, I thought I'd open up the TALK thread for this pending event. Many chasers from Colorado are in exchange over plans to meet up and head out Saturday night and base camp someplace in Central Kansas. I being the only knucklehead stuck working, will be leaving Denver Sunday at the butt-crack of dawn and hauling out I-70 to meet with the group at the adjusted forecast area. More later, I'm sure!
Tom Dulong and I will be driving out Sat night hopefully linking up with Chris Rozoff and chasers from CSU for a caravan to KS. Meeting up with Tony as he jets out Sunday morning for some cold-core action!
The pending snowstorm in Colorado has now come into the picture in regards to me chasing the Sunday system. Waiting to see what the rest in our large group are thinking before making any final decisions.
Tony, I hope the snow doesn't hamper you efforts to chase tomorrow.

With this storm coming through on the weekend it is going to be a madhouse on Sunday with hundreds of chasers out like on May 29th of last year here in Okla.
Hopefully there will be a few different cells of great interest so everyone isn't converged on one lone cell. Either way it plays out I hope everyone gets out and enjoys the storms.
I'm still planning on heading to central KS today. I have the snowplow here at my house all gassed up and hopefully my wife will be able to dig out from the snowstorm. I won't be here so she'll have to do it. We live west of Denver at 9080 feet and got 7 feet of snow from the blizzard of 2003 so I'm thinking we'll have atleast 2 feet of snow from this one! I may be working Monday at a hotel in Limon if they shut down I-70. :)

There's even a little action saturday for our drive out, from the Goodland HWO:
The SPC is throwing Nebraskans a bone today. My area is currently in the 5% tornado risk cat. Not much, but it's a start. Cold front will move through, dew points are forecast to be in the 50 - 60 range, latest RUC run shows no solid 700 mb inversion, and the SPC mentions a surface low forming in Nebraska. For the first time this year I can say that we've got some decent backing winds. 850 mb winds are looking to be in the 20-30 kt range, 500 mb winds are looking to be in the 30 - 40 kt range. Both out of the south.



I see potential in today.

Maybe it's just the n00b in me, but I'm actually excited about this system.
I really like the set up in South central KS today and have for some time now. I am heading out soon, planning to be in ICT by noon to plan my next move. Good luck to all who are out today.
Reports of a tornado touchdown were reported about a half hour ago in Scott County, KS. Public reported the touchdown for about two minuites.

Rapid development now ... the dryline is lighting up like a Christmas tree! Cell is intensifying SW of Pratt, KS. Give it til about 4 PM CDT and warnings will start flying...

Well looks like those who played east or ENE of the low should have had a pretty good day. 9 tornadoes confirmed so far, I've been watching from home and noticed some indication of some very large and strong rotation. around 5 p.m. Did anyone catch any of these cells?
Report from the field - KS tornadoes

Dean Cosgrove just called in to report catching 4-5 tornadoes - 2 of which were spectacular cones. First one briefly touched down on Cedar Bluff Reservoir SW of Hays, KS. Cones were in the Ogallala area. The last one was NE of Russell around 7 pm CT. He keeps saying "wow" and includes phrases like multiple vortices, incredible rotation, great video, and, once again, "wow." All I can say is I'll be out in a few weeks.
Isolated supercell continues to blast northeast and it's right over Norman, OK's head. It's SVR-warned ... and I've been seeing a appendage. Some weak rotation and golfball sized hail with this storm...

Wonder what Norman is reporting.

I just posted some awesome tornado video from Doug Kiesling that was shot about five miles south of Ogallah, Kansas this afternoon.


Update - Just talked with Amos Magliocco. They were heading for dinner after having a very busy day seeing 5 tornadoes.

Jeff Gammons
Supercell continues to move northeast and will effect portions of Oklahoma City for the next half hour. Showing absolutely no signs of weakening, and is moving at a very chaseable 20 MPH ... hope somebody is chasing this thing. Besides the golfball hail threat ... radar continues to indicate some weak rotation, so a tornado threat is possible...

A very chaseable 20 mph...but, its right over the metro. That's an awful place to be chasing a storm. But, it is a nice storm. Not sure how likely it is that it drops a tornado...but could be worth a shot to anyone who stayed back in Norman once it exits the city.
I've chased in Metro areas, many times. It's a absolute pain in the neck with traffic and red lights and I'm sure OKC is no exception. But it's a Sunday evening, and I'm sure the traffic is not that bad - and am sure you could find a nice spot to view the storm just outside the city. Let's hope it stays together as it exits...

Seems to be a general weakening trend to the discrete cells in central OK now. The two non-severe storms south of OUN have all but disappeared now, and the cell over OUN seems to be losing some strength at the moment as well.
TOR has just been issued for Oklahoma County ... strong rotation has developed on radar just southwest of Harrah. The hook was extremely well defined in the last scan, but it's a bit distorted in the most recent scan. A tornado can definitely drop out of this one...

Tony Laubach recently phoned to report witnessing five tornadoes in N. Central Kansas (assuming this was the Ogalla, KS storm along I-70; but don't quote me on that). Additional reports to follow.

Pardon my "--" deleted message in the REPORTS colum; it has been moved here.

Multiple spotter reports of power flashes in the Harrah vicinity. Doppler continues to indicate strong gate to gate shear with this tornadic supercell now located over Harrah. We should hear a TOR for Lincoln county within the next few minuites...

It's rapidly weakening and is now just about dead. Although the latest severe weather statement just came out about five minuites ago and it continued to indicate the possibility of "weak" tornadoes in the Warwick areas. But I pretty much find this to be impossible now...

It was a pretty long-lived storm.

I did a quick look at the chances of seeing a WATERSPOUT in Kansas as several chasers, including myself, saw in Trego County over Cedar Bluff Reservoir.

Some Kansas Geography Facts...
Data collected from Netstate (Kansas)

KS Total Area: 82,282 sq. miles
KS Total Land: 81,823 sq. miles
KS Total Water: 459 sq. miles

Using that information, assuming 1 tornado touching down anywhere in Kansas, the chance of seeing a WATERSPOUT in Kansas is...


Someone else can calculate the odds of seeing a tornado (in Kansas), let ALONE seeing one over water in Kansas... fun little stat I thought I'd add since several of us were driving over the dam road when the dam tornado touched down over the dam water. :lol: