04/04/05 – FCST: Northern Plains

[Kurt Silvey]

Perhaps spring has arrived for the northern plains. Looking out to Monday 4/4 the HPC 5 day forecast shows a1000mb low located in the Dakotas, with a warm front aligned NW to SE through NE Neb. and cold front extending N to S, moving in from the west. The GFS has the low a little more to the south along the NE / SD boarder. Surface winds are shown from the South at 20kts and 500mb backing to the WSW at 30kts. The southerly winds will bring surface temps up into the mid 70’s and Td’s could push 50 – 55. Theta-E is Prog at 330k and LI -2.0 for central NE.

A preliminary target is Grand Island, NE.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Kurt Silvey

A preliminary target is Grand Island, NE.

LOL Kurt, it's quite ambitious to make a target for a forecast that's 4 days out based upon model forecasts from models that have been quite poor beyond 72 hours lately! I think we are going to be hard-pressed (read: extreme skepticism) to get any sort of real moisture into the northern plains. Heck, with widespread 30-40kt northerly flow through the Gulf in the next couple of days, I think we're going to have a tough time seeing good moisture return to the southern plains, much less the northern plains. The low that'll track along the Gulf coast and into the norteastern U.S. though Satuday will bring a cold front through the entire Gulf of Mexico, essentially flushing any moisture well into the Carribbean and Central America. I'd give it atleast 5 days to get full recovery, especially given the fact that the models park a nice High right over the Gulf...

FWIW, the 12z NAM is barely showing 50 Tds along the south Texas coast by Sunday morning, with the >60 Tds in the far south Gulf, though the true "Gulf" air doesn't appear to even be in the Gulf after having been pushed into the Carrib.

EDIT: I'm thinking in terms of low-level moisture for tornadic supercells. There may be some mid-level moisture for precipitation and elevated convection, however...

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder

it's quite ambitious to make a target for a forecast that's 4 days out

Sorry, I didn’t intend to pinpoint a spot for a target. I should have just indicated central NE, was attempting to put a smile on Mike D’s face. As for the low level moisture, I would agree that it has differently been in short supply lately, especially up here , but the models are showing Td’s into the 50’s as far north as southern MN.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_dewp.gif

I don’t know if this will pan out, but I’ll be watching it over the weekend.

 

[JHadorn]

GFS now plots the low to be in southern Kansas / northern Oklahoma. I am encouraged by the fact that nothing appears to be obstructing good flow from the Gulf of Mexico

500 mb winds still look good, though.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Looking at the GFS 850mb Td loop,
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avn850td.html

it shows the prog moisture being carried into the northern plains from the Pacific. Although it is not our beloved Gulf moisture, perhaps it will be enough to provide a show.

 

[Karen Politte]

Weeelllll........it's lookin' pretty grim out there, isn't it?

By out there, I mean down in the Gulf. Has anybody cared to take a look at the forecast impact of this recent cold front on the gulf? I couldn't care less about forecasting for severe storms right now - because I'm in cold/dry-"damage-control" mode (so is the Gulf!).

The ETA forecasts what is currently represented by surfaces obs - NW winds out to sea and 30-something-degree dewpoints working their way down towards the Texas coast. I have't looked at buoy data......but I don't have my habitual early-spring vomit bag close to hand, so that's probably a good thing......

Anyway - like I was saying - I think it's pretty much futile to be forecasting severe weather for next week at this point in time. And - like I said in an even earlier post - I would be setting my sights on the 2nd or 3rd week in April right now (which I am).......in the Texas Panhandle (mark my words!)

The GFS paints possibly an even more bleak picture, with the northern Gulf hanging on to 30-degree dewpoints up until at least 0Z Sunday April 3rd.

You have to take both the ETA and GFS out to around 96-hr to find any suggestions of trends of moisture-return. Therefore - I would guess that *any* hopes of severe weather next week for places any further north than central Texas are dashed. I just-don't-see-it!!

I'd love the atmosphere to prove me wrong.

KR

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Anyway - like I was saying - I think it's pretty much futile to be forecasting severe weather for next week at this point in time.

Did you look at last night's gfs? Both the last two runs of it placed the system over c OK and points south so any talk of moisture returning to the central/northern plains is pointless now anyway. I don't see it as completely futile for the southern plains at all(for the 5th now). By the looks of this damn pattern places in the plains other than se OK, e TX look to be hosed for some time.

 

[Karen Politte]

Did you look at last night's gfs? Both the last two runs of it placed the system over c OK and points south so any talk of moisture returning to the central/northern plains is pointless now anyway. I don't see it as completely futile for the southern plains at all(for the 5th now). By the looks of this damn pattern places in the plains other than se OK, e TX look to be hosed for some time.

I agree, this year could see a LOT of systems stay down where this particular system is now forecast to be - central OK and southwards.

But hey......what's so bad about severe weather occurring where it's supposed to?? :wink:
You Nebraskans have had it all your own way for faaaaar too long. I feel that 2005 will quite rightly see a return to chasing in Oklahoma and Texas.....ahhhhhh!

KR

 

[JHadorn]

Christ in a handbag. Those dewpoints took a straight dive for the tank, didn't they?

I see that the latest GFS run completely removes the low until 0z April 5. Also a brief return of 50+ dews for a short while.

At this point I'm willing to throw my hands up in the air and contently wait for May/June.