03/12/06 FCST: Southern Great Lakes to Western Gulf Coast

[Mike Johnston]

After looking over the 12z NAM, although there are many possibilities today, I think the best combo of good probabilities and chasing terrain will be across W Central MO later this afternoon and early evening:

* Reasonable t/td spread of 10 or less should allow for LCL's of well under 1000 m

* Just ahead of dry line bulge

* Close to ideal wind crossover w/ height: SW 85 kt @ 500mb, SSW 50 kt @ 850mb, and SSE 15 kt at the surface

* Ample 0-1km SR helicity of 300 m2s2

* Although composite parameters look more tempting further north (near Liberty, MO), this position should allow one to easily negotiate around the E side of KC metro area via I-470 (rather than approaching from the KS side and then having to cross MO river in the hilly terrain north of KC.)

Specifically, I would initially position on U.S. 71 between Nevada and Harrisonville and monitor from there. This is good chaseable terrain! And, if initiation is further W in E KS, you can always crossover on U.S. 54.

Good luck to all those going out today - wish I were out there! If anyone finds themself without a nowcaster, I'm available all day, so PM me.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for March 12

Chase Target:
Lathrop, MO (20 mi NNE of Kansas City).

Comments:
Renewed convection will fire along warm front/outflow boundary in the wake of ongoing morning convection by 3 PM CST. One is advised to be positioned on I-35 just north of the KC metro for best mobility, as storms will be racing to the northeast at 50mph. A full spectrum of severe weather, including tornadoes, will occur.

Discussion:
UA pattern characterized by high-amplitude trough in the WRN CONUS, placing upper-Midwest in SWRLY flow. Lead impulse lifting from OK into KS has already initiated convection in ERN KS, including an impressive elevated supercell that is lifting through the KC metro ATTM despite SFC temperatures in the mid-40s. OFB from this convection is analyzed along a Harrisonville, MO to Ottawa, KS line at 15Z. Over the next several hours, the surface airmass will recover along and S of I-70. As is often the case early in the season, strong shear will be juxtaposed with marginal instability; and very dry air at and above the 850mb level will punch into the area shortly after storm initiation. In any case, SBCAPEs and MLCAPEs should exceed 2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Of particular note will be very impressive, large and curving hodographs; with (SFC-3km) SRHs well in excess of 500m^2/s^2.

- bill

 

[William Combes]

Anyone at KU in Lawrence?

* AT 815 AM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED IN LAWRENCE. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE CITY OF LAWRENCE.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

New OUNHWO moves slight risk significantly west, I would imagine SPC will be following this trend. Slight Risk now runs from Stillwater/Purcell/Waurika line per OUN. Good luck to you guys up in MO, etc. today!

EDIT: New RUC breaks out convective precip over SC/NC Texas at 0z.

 

[Joel Wright]

Taking a last look at things before we head. I'm VERY concerned with the extreme speed these storms seem to be moving at. I really don't want to get run over with a core again like yesterday. However with such potential for extreme weather today I can't just sit here and watch it pass by.

Looks like we're going to head on down towards Kirksville MO and see what's going on by then.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Just about to out for the se KS / ne OK border area. OUN AFD doesn't sound particulalry nice, but the new ICT HWO is nice. I'd rather get east than north right now, since I don't want to get behind these things when they're moving 50-55mph. New RUC puts CAPE bullseye just ne of OKC, at >3000. Not sure hwy the DL looks more diffuse in KS than OK, but we'll see. Good luck to all heading out. Agitated Cu on DL from Clinton to ICT.

1630 Day 1 outlook: T minus -30 minutes... LOL Make me think they're goingg to change something big, since I don't think they'd be 25+ minutes late on a big day if they weren't changing anything.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Just about to out for the se KS / ne OK border area. OUN AFD doesn't sound particulalry nice, but the new ICT HWO is nice. I'd rather get east than north right now, since I don't want to get behind these things when they're moving 50-55mph. New RUC puts CAPE bullseye just ne of OKC, at >3000. Not sure hwy the DL looks more diffuse in KS than OK, but we'll see. Good luck to all heading out. Agitated Cu on DL from Clinton to ICT.

1630 Day 1 outlook: T minus -25 minutes... LOL Make me think they're goingg to change something big, since I don't think they'd be 25+ minutes late on a big day if they weren't changing anything.

They might be rewriting the PWO... I've been hitting refresh on COD for the past 30 minutes waiting for the new outlook (COD usually distributes it faster than SPC's homepage).

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I am going to be looking to my west and north west along Cherokee County, Kansas, to Deleware and Adair County Oklahoma as a good place to see any potetial developement later in the day. Also NW Osage County (Oklahoma) is looking realy realy nice right now.

If anyone is in the Bentonville area, and needs a chase partner, I can volunteer. My ride today was unable to head out so I am stuck here in Bentonville (located in NW Ark).

 

[Mike Johnston]

Goodness gracious! Something could break soon now over N Central OK, or S Central / SE KS! SB CAPE pushing to 3000 j/kg, CIN eroding and indications of surface convergence. If near the area, I would definitely keep an eye out around Kay Co, OK / Cowley Co, KS and surrounding areas. If storms initiate in this area, could quickly go tornadic in such environment.

EDIT: New MD out for this area and eastward, w/ about as strong a wording as possible, WW pending, high risk expanded westward.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Leaving Omaha now. Aiming toward I-35 betw. Bethany and Cameron. Green Focus, Neb plates. Good luck, happy hunting, stay safe!

 

[Kevin Bowman]

im very concerned about NE illinois including Chicago metro, temperatures are only in the upper 40's but because of the potency of this system, tornadic supercells have been occuring a long distance north of the warm front. I know for a fact people here are going to think its to cold for tornadoes.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Originally posted by Kevin Bowman
im very concerned about NE illinois including Chicago metro, temperatures are only in the upper 40's but because of the potency of this system, tornadic supercells have been occuring a long distance north of the warm front. I know for a fact people here are going to think its to cold for tornadoes.

I agree, for example it was just about 48 when that supercell moved through Lawrence, Ks, earlier.

 

[Kevin Statler2]

Kevin Statler

Already a tornado warning in eastern KS. Does this mean there wont be any significant potential later in Eastern KS? It could also mean that once the energy hits later in the afternoon that the storms will strengthen..

 

[David Wolfson]

The vis sat is as much of a roadmap as I've ever seen it. You can see the dry axis screaming up from the Texas panhandle highlighted by dust and some fire smoke to somewhere west of Emporia and St. Joe. It's making some slow progress eastward, but stay one county east near the boundary and it looks like you'll have all the storms you can handle. KC definitely seems under the gun in a few hours. Based on what's happened earlier this morning the cluster coming up I-35 is going to go nuts when it hits the boundary IMHO.

 

[Bill Tabor]

I'm noticing high upper clouds streaming in across OK / TX even though SPC recently 11/2 hour ago issued an MSD for convective breakout possible. I'm wondering if this will be enough to shut down convection in those areas. Any opinions? Small cu was growing in north Tx before the big wave of grunge overspread. RUC was forecasting high clouds and developing today particularly over Tx. Looks like this is verifying.