03/12/06 FCST: Southern Great Lakes to Western Gulf Coast

[Eric Whitehill]

My very quick thoughts.

SPC has issued their first high risk of the season.

My target after taking a really quick look...


Pulaski, IA to Greenlop, MO to Warsaw, MO

Just look at the soundings....WOW!

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Ill be playing the I-70 corridor east... whens the last high risk issued for march? i hope tommorow doesnt spell disaster for people but the way it looks now its going to be one.... i cant really pick a target out yet until the next model runs ... good luck to everyone tommorow... stay safe and i will do the same 8)

 

[Jason McIntosh]

Glad I chased and stayed in this area of IL overnight. Now that my prediction of the high risk has come true(ref forcast for IL thread); i hope that everybody involved in this tomorrow is safe. This will not be a bust. Snowstorm for upper midwest, 40 degree temp contrast from MN to IL, high shear levels, adequate dewpoints, powerful jetstream 100k +!

Everybody is coming this way right now aren't they.

Remember that with the beauty comes the beast.
We are here to save lives today.
Enjoy this one! Be Safe!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Jason McIntosh
This will not be a bust.

If there's one thing a chaser should never say about a day it's that... :lol: I've seen many HIGH risks bust either in regards to no convection (clear-sky bust) or to too much convection (squall line or mess bust). I don't think it'll be a clear-sky bust, but you never know if you'll have too much forcing or whatnot to end up with too many storms. I do think it could indeed by bad, it I certainly don't know for sure. The setups that accompany extreme severe events (those that are usually outlined by a HIGH risk) tend to be extremely volatile and very sensitive -- a little too much forcing or a little too weak (or strong) a cap may be all that's necessary to make or break a good chase day.

At any rate, I've opted not to bite on the HIGH risk target. Too far for too fast storm motion in too unfamiliar area and too early sunset has dissuaded me from heading into N MO. So, I'm preliminarily heading one of two places: ne OK / sw MO or northern TX. Shear is progged to be stronger the further one goes towards northern MO and western IL. That said, storm motion is progged to be in the 50-60kt range in MO, which is a little concerning. Farther south, N TX should have nice Tds with potentially higher CAPE. Unfortunately, 850mb wind minima noses into northern TX by 0z, resulting in rather weak shear. On the plus side, the area of N TX between I35 and Paris isn't bad chase country... I guess I'll nkow more tomorrow when I look at some RAOBS, satellite, and latest nwp guidance.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

My targets are St Jo from 12-3pm.... Bethany area around 3pm.... Unionville and Centerville aroudn 6pm....
Lots of places in central Missouri may not see much til late.... maybe after dark. Looks like a warm front game tomorrow.

 

[Shane Adams]

Looks like the 13Z outlook could shift things further west. The RUC is holding the moisture much further west than the NAM (Not Accurate Mostly) by 21Z, and moisture return across much of Oklahoma has been very impressive overnight, with the main body of the state socked in with low-mid 60s dewpoints. RUC has all of OK basically capped like yesterday, but I'll be watching the new runs this morning to see if that solution is modified a bit. With everyone's focus on the high risk area, S KS/OK could be a sleeper today.

For those of you chasing the bullet storms in MO/ILL...pick a target, and drive away from it about 30-50 miles. You need to find a good spot for viewing well ahead of the action and hope it puts on a show as it whizzes by. You get one shot with systems like these, then you're behind it the rest of the day. Stay safe, good luck, and please try to call in anything you see. Days like today (if things pan out as advertised) are when people need all the warning they can get.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I agree Shane. The RUC has the dryline in c OK/c KS at 21z. It has the low down to 993 by that same time and has the warm front hauling north(between 18-21z). Check out the winds behind the dryline too. Yikes. I wonder what, if any, affects this early morning convection in KS will have on the day. Probably none I guess as it races off to the nne north of the wf. I just hate seeing too much of that going on. I guess maybe I'm paranoid about anything screwing up the...day after having seen many high risk busts.

As for only getting one shot up to the north I think you can get more than that. If the drlyine is producing supercells and not this crazy line one can just drive due east and catch them as they come up from the sw. That looks like a hell of a dryline punch on the RUC though so who knows what will be the mode on that.

Part of me wants to move my target sw of St. Joe now, but I do not want to be too far west today. I also don't want to mess with picking options to cross the river. By the way, crossing ne into St. Joe is not the quickest option in the world. If you do so watch very closely for that exit to take the one segment east. I was watching closely and had the gps zoomed way in and I missed it the other day. One other thing, don't expect curve signs on all MO smaller paved roads. Some of those sharp peaks will have curves as you go down the other side. Don't need anyone at the bottom of Bob's hill.

Target just north of KC I guess. That will probably change in a few hours. Man is that dryline still way west on the RUC at 21z.

 

[Shane Adams]

Seems local media here is split, as one station is saying the dryline will blast east and another is saying OKC might be added to the slight risk area later today. I guess it depends on which model you believe, and for my money the RUC has been the choice in this very young chase season. This is a repeat of yesterday for me, as I'll be watching the OK mesonet religiously throughout the morning to see what that dryline is gonna do. If it hangs around by 21Z as advertised, there might be hope down here yet.

As for the high risk target, H is right. You can keep up with storms if you can get a good road, but the window is still relatively narrow. Storms that root and deviate should slow some, but that's still probably 40-45mph. It's very difficult, but it can be done. Good luck!!!

 

[Dan Dawson]

0900 UTC RUC is very interesting, and gives me some more hope that the action may be a bit further west. On the other hand, the rapid approach of the 500 mb vortmax may justify a quick push of the dryline east between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC across all of KS and OK, per the Eta. The RUC is a little bit SW of the Eta's position with the main energy in the 500 mb trough, so this is probably why it's holding things back a bit.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

LOL I love it. First, I'll say that I'm very pleased that it looks like the dryline will be farther west this afternoon -- the 9z RUC run has the dryline along I35 in OK/KS/TX at 21z. I just awoke to a wondrous feelig (I sleep next to a window) -- humidity! Tds across OK are currently in the 60-65F region in the warm sector, and surface maps indicate Tds in the 67-68F range sitting in westecentral and southwestern LA, poisted to move northward/northwestward. If the 9z RUC run is to be believed, I think I'm more favored to nc OK and sc KS than N TX, as it shows relatively low CINH at the former, and substantial CINH remaining at the latter. In addition, most previous runs had winds veering a bit even ahead of the dryline north of the Red River area, which the 9z ruc no longer shows. I'm not sure exactly wher ethe dryline will be by 21z, since winds in sw/wc OK are veered a bit, telling me that any moisture out there will quickly mix out this morning as the dryline takes shape. Ah yes, the 21z RUC forecast initiates precip just east of i35 in southern ks as well.

EDIT: New 12z RUC out, and it looks like it shows a dryline bulge near Salina-Emporia area at 0z, with some other dryline disparity near the Red river as well. In fact, convectiion does develop just north of that Red-River / N TX dryline bulge that the RUC shows ( see http://68.226.77.253/models/RUC/CENTRAL_RU...S_CAPE_12HR.gif ). The 12z also continues to indicate convective initiation just east of I35 in sc KS, as well as initiation in sc and se OK by 0z. This trough looks like it may come out a bit deeper or less positively-tilted than I remember previous runs showing it to be. 12z RUC Shows the 993mb sfc low to be located between Salina and Hays KS at 0z. BTW, I realize I'm model-listing here, but I haven't had much time yet to get the interpretation machine working (it's 740am afterall). LOL.

EDIT 2: Geez, Check out St. Louis's AFD --> http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLSX/0603121246.fxus63.html ... Geez, it's like that discussion is to St. Louis as the Katrina doomsday statement was to the Slidell office.

 

[Justin Walker]

After looking at the 12z Ruc, I believe everything will have to be shifted to the west and even south. Dryline still around I35 corridor with maybe a bulge in central KS. Cape values 2500 J/kg in sc KS looks very appealing. Also 12z has the sfc low near hays KS at 0z, very interesting! My target is now shifting sw towards central to sc KS.

 

[matt patterson]

I think that all of you who are targeting NC MO-NW ILL need to take a closer look at the 12z NAM and 12z RUC. The RUC has been very consitant with the positioning of this system. Im afraid that the show may be well after dark. Well good luck and be safe.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

The positioning of the Ruc and the Eta aren't too far off, at least with the initial low center. I agree everything is going to be firing up farther west than I thought when I went to bed... well... this morning.

Td 60 advecting nicely already this morning, and the atmosphere all the way to the northward moving warm front will be primed and ready. I don't think this elevated junk in KS and NE will impact the situation all that much. Vis imagery shows some clearing, at least scattered clouds, to the south and southeast, and I think as we get some further mixing, we'll see some more insolation. I certainly like chasing the warm nose instead of the dryline and the RUC EHI forecast leads me to think there will be plenty of tornado reports throughout MO, IL, and to a somewhat lesser extent northern AR. Since the low center and dryline shifted to the west, I'd say I'd want to be in Joplin by noon with the option to go northeast or southeast... or just stay put and mozy northward as the afternoon progresses. I am not familiar at all with MO topography, so that has not been taken into consideration. I do like the thought of the RUC that storms will stay more discrete until around sunset. The NGM wants to bring a line of severe convection into northern IL and Iowa after dark, and that's an idea I support as well.

However, this will not be a chase day for me from TX.

I am not that optimistic about our chances down here in Texas. The 12Z FWD Raob is a goal post, but CIN is at 300 and it looks like it'll take much of the day's heating and later forcing to get the cap to break. Cap is at a bit more than 5.7 C, which is less than the 7.4C yesterday morning but still a tough nut to crack. Farther east toward SHV, the cap is at about 3D. It'll just take time. RUC also shows CIN decreasing rather markedly at around the 22Z time frame, so I think we may get a few fast moving supercells down into SE OK and NE TX by late this afternoon. However, while the CIN gets eroded late today, our best shear and helicities simultaneously move northeast ward into AR and MO.

Good luck to everyone.
MP

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Per the 12z the NAM, I'll still be targeting the Chillicothe, MO area. I typically put zero faith in the RUC until the 15z run. I'm actually enjoying watching the cirrus shield from this convection stream over one area to the NE. Hopefully this will create at least a weak thermal boundary to help enhance convergence in the area. Essentially, I'm not playing the dryline today - it'll be fun enough racing tornadic supercells on my way back home to WI tonight. Here's hoping that the WF/thermal boundary combo and perhaps a boundary or two from this early morning stuff will help enhance convergence somewhere in N/NW MO. It's as far as I can logically go and still make it home at a decent time for work.

 

[J West]

edited for content-jw

Target:

Somewhere between Quad Cities and Springfield, Ill.

Thoughts:

I would tend to agree with statements that WC Illinois is a early evening target. My initial plan was to leave MKE about now and head for the Quad Cities, and chase what I could back NW so I could be home at a reasonable hour. However, after a look at the models, it's looking like initial build-up will be further SW well into Missouri/Kansas. I really didn't want to cross the Miss. river and get stuck on Bob's road in rural Missouri, so I opted to sit this one out.

If something changes and starts showing potential for the afternoon tornado threat to move into my target area, I'll fly down there.