03/08/06 NOW: Central/Southern Plains

cell has formed in Throckmorton county along dryline but remains week so far. VIL was building but we shall see. It seems if there is ever a chance of severe storms in this area... Throckmorton usually gets it.

I may head South on 79 if this cell keeps buidling out of Wichita Falls. It will be moving into Young and Jack counties which are very hilly and lots of oaks ;-p
 
Been watching cell in Throckmorton county for past 30 minutes; looked possible for a while, but has weakened somewhat past few scans. Magic spot in Texas seems to be first or most likely to be active regardless if odds are long or short; just stick any boundary in the area and seems something usually fires there.
 
Initiation has just taken place as an apparent line of cu (hidden by the CI on satellite) just passed over the retreating dryline NW of OKC.

A cell now displays a 40dbz core already northeast of OKC. On radar, it is evident that the line of cu passing over the dryline NW and west of OKC will likely initiate shortly and unzip southwestwards down the dryline.

I am hoping that this isn't the beginning of our big linear sausage.

K.
 
Appears there may be a confluence boundary east of the dryline in TX near Stephen county, seen when DYX was in clear air mode 45 mins ago. Just sat through some rain here in Ardmore... Winds have backed nicely north of here in Paul's Valley and Ada (with SSE-SE winds and 10F dewpoint depression, meaning locally lowered LCLs), with real cells maturing in Lincoln county and northern Oklahoma City. I'm a little concerned with storm mode... Shear vectors are out of the SW right now, which is nearly parallel to the dryline, particularly in central OK.

Substantial pressure falls are occurring in western OK and TX as strong large-scale ascent commences ahead of the vort max in NM. With the max pressure flals to the west, isollabaric forcing would indicated that our winds will begin to back east of the dryline... KTLX shows the dryline nicely moving back to the NW through OKC, not that that concerns me too much since I'm in Ardmore. Some echoes continue near Throckmorton and into Palo Pinto co. TX, but I assume those are elevated in origin. 20z OUN sounding showed no cap, though 18z DFW/FWD sounding showed substantial capping remained. The current light precip is falling through the capping layer, which should be resulting in evaporative cooling, which may actually help us remove the cap. Of course, it'll cool the surface temps as well, but continued strong southerly flow should help bring back warmer surface air.
 
The cells ne of STJ seem to have crossed the boundary. The right cell briefely popped some 60dbz. I'd be looking at the cell developing ne of KC, which has awhile to run in the good air.
 
THe NWS has issued Tornado Watch #40 in effect until 11:00pm ct for NE Ok, and Central Ok.

"THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA
TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0)." -SPC text product.
 
That Oklahoma cell is nothing compared to the one in SC Iowa. Second day in a row where a severe storm has popped up in the state. 60dbz and a little bit of shear showing up on that one, though I don't expect much to come of.
 
As Jeff noted, appears a confluence zone NE of Abilene may be enhancing convergence in Throckmorton and Palo Pinto county area. Peculiar the way appears in composite reflectivity mode on DYX radar.
 
Sure looks to me like the cirrus shield/less than full insolation and Cap have prevented these cells from taking off. They have had every opportunity to do so but continue to fizzle both in OK and the Ft. Smith, AR area. Unless something goes very soon, this convection potential will be a bust.
 
watch that stuff just west of Ft. Worth, dBZ's have really jumped in the last 20 min or so. Yes its elongated but ive seen stuff become discreat after the fact.
 
Now getting possible intiation just east of Kansas City. Characterized by 1000 j/kg SBCAPE & 70kts Effetive Shear. Not a terribly bad position for this cell since it can move NE and ingest better helicity, with still enough instability to become severe. Should move into area where STP is 1 and SigSvr is 30 within 20 minutes.
 
There was a post concerning the drought and cirrus. It was on one of the threads earlier in the week - the comments were that one should keep an eye on that subject when it comes to this outbreak. I will have to search back to see if I can find it. Does anyone remember the comment?

Edit: Chris Whitehead made the comment on the ridge and Arizone

"Those of you that live in the Southern Plains may have noticed the amount of dense high level cirrus in the skies the last several warm and pleasant days. I think this may be a by product of the ridge, but if this trend continues, which could easily occur then everybodys hosed. Im not sure what causes cirrus to develop on warm and windy days but I do know they are quite commonly associated with hot, dry climates ala Arizona in summer."
 
Storm just to the East of KC continues to intensify with dbz values reaching up to around 55 right now... also evidence of initiation just west of Chanute, KS along the dryline farther to the SW... New md out discussion issuance of a watch for northern texas and south central OK as storms continue to increase in coverage and intensify, these should probably become more intense as more ascent overspreads the area within the next couple of hours.

That line of hailers in Iowa actually looked pretty impressive for quite awhile... :shock:
 
Looks like my initiation point is on target near the Gainesville area as mentioned per forecast as convection is now breaking out. :lol: And it did it in the daylight. Will be interesting to see if this amounts to anything worth chasing.
 
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