04/18/06 NOW: IA/MO/IL/AR/TX

[Mike Peregrine]

Radar reflectivities and visual observation from Kansas City indicate initiation currently underway in a line running from just northeast of Kansas City to the north, through the STJ area to approximately the Iowa state line. My own obs from my office include towering cumulus to the north of KC that have begun to return radar reflectivites - one of which has now begun to produce a visible anvil. This appears to be a line that will soon move into the tornado watch area just to the east of the city. One cell near STJ is now approaching 40 dbz. Storm initiation can be visually confirmed at this point, so I'm starting a NOW thread.

EDIT - the storm near STJ (now entering Andrew County - is now at 50-60dbz, growing rapidly, as I expect this additional convection to do shortly from the looks of it. Some very healthy looking updrafts going up that are surrounded by clear air - wish I could chase tonight, but cannot.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

By the way - the Andrew County storm continues to move off to the northeast. I've decided that this is the cell that I can see anviling out from my office window. There is another one just to its southeast, however, that hasn't been showing up on radar yet, but is visibly exploding right now as well. Both of these are going to end up becoming interesting storms very soon from the looks of them.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Kind of a false alarm I sounded earlier... Towers are indeed prevalent, but they are elevated and we've had nothing but turkeys so far. I have relocated to Lexington. They've been exhibiting some pretty hard convection, though.

Oh, BTW, seems like pretty nice chase terrain around here so far. Reminds me a bit of SW OK.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Latest visible satellite as of 1730 and radar indicates rapid development of Cb with 3 well defined cells - two of which have immediately developed ahead and NE of the dryline. However, it appears they have not as yet rooted and are rapidly shooting off to the NNE. Expect activity to continue intensification and will likely break severe limits within 15 min to a half hour. Osceola/Lamoni, MO would be great places to wait at this point.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Wish you folks could see what these look like ...

Oh wait ... you can!

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mik.../0418060001.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mik.../0418060004.jpg

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v143/mik.../0418060003.jpg

Sorry for all the dust on the lens ... haven't had time to clean them since Saturday's chase yet. This is probably the only night I can upload these from my apartment so you can see the storms in progress. These are super contrasty just so you can see cloud detail ... no time for serious photography as I have to get out the door.

By the way, the last photo is of the middle storm of the three - and the other two are of the southern most cell. The northern storm is now out of my field of view from KC.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Middle storm of the trio has gone severe warned with the threat for quarter sized hail as the primary concern. Looks like the show is on for sure, and intensification is likely to continue.

 

[David Wagener]

Now your northern storm is severe warned, you were just predicting the future.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Once again the two 12z runs of the nam and gfs overforecasted the moisture, and the ruc was right on, showing substantial mixing shortly after noon. The insolation might have been too much today (high LCLs), but I can tell there is a copious amount of cape being realized from the looks of the 3rd picture Mike took. It appears the strongest helicity and lowest LCLs will be after dark which is never a good situation. I'll be watching from home.

 

[John Sickels]

The northernmost storm looks like it might be starting to show signs of rotation. The other two look weaker.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Yes, from morning fog to these high t/td spreads with the heat of the day...talked to Dick McGowan a few moments ago, who is moving N on U.S. 65 just out ahead of this line and he reports the storms look high based, but even now some decent rotation and form developing w/ the middle storm.

 

[John Sickels]

The southern storm continues to struggle, but the middle and northern storms are both showing rotational signs on radar. The middle storm also looks like it might be starting to shift more E than NE, which might put Chillicothe in the path.

Also note that the storms are approaching the "radar void" in NC Missouri. They really need a WSR in Kirksville for situations like this!

Northern storm producting walnut-sized hail near Bethany according to NWS report.

I know this area of Missouri very well....my wife is from Milan....anyone who is out chasing and is not familiar with the area, please be very careful. The roads in this part of MO are dismal....lots of county roads with no shoulders and tons of blind top hills. Even the state and US highways are generally poor in this area.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Both storms looking much healthier now and established (northern and middle) with high dBz reflectivities and supercell structure becoming dominant. Also, looking at SRRV, middle storm appears to be developing a nice mid level meso (+40/-22) but nothing outrageous yet.

 

[John Sickels]

Middle storm continues as severe warned, but NWS now referring to "baseball size" hail from this cell.

If this cell continues to intensify, could it rob the northern cell of juice and become the dominant player?

 

[Dennis Gulley]

It appears that the center cell has developed the classic hook echo and is bearing down on Chillicothe. Those folks better take cover now.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Tornado warning for the storm headed toward Chillicothe in Livingston County.