02/24/07 NOW: KS

[Fabian Guerra]

Skip Talbot and I made the long drive from Chicago and are now sitting in a Super 8 parking lot in Abilene, KS (between Salina and Junction City) using their wi-fi. The setup today looks to be pretty good for a cold core event and I think we are in a pretty decent position now.

 

[Scott Roberts]

Headed out of ICT in the next hour or so. Initial target Marion, KS, moving N to NE. Really like the clearing developed behind the clouds right over my head now, and how it's positioned related to the low.

Be safe out there!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

In Hutchinson now, just crossed the front. The cu field is rapidly thickening up. There was nothing but clear skies as I got near it, but it's rapidly filled in.

 

[Dick McGowan]

A few miles east of Marion was where we saw the first tornado of the day on 11/27/05 ! I have other obligations until noon, then i'll probably head out towards emporia, maybe a county north. Good luck to everyone today.

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

We'll have our whole crew in Abilene around 1pm.

We only have to drive thirty minutes today. A lot less than the 639 miles we drove yesterday. Crap.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

Central Kasas "Cold-Core" Tornado Potential

The "cold-core" tornado potential looks ripe over central Kansas between 18-22z. Boundaries, moisture, dry slot, etc all appear to be focusing in an area bounded by Ellsworth-Junction City-Cottonwood Falls-McPherson-Ellsworth.

If I were chasing, I'd begin by positioning along the warm front just east of the surface low at 18z. This should be somewhere within the Ellsworth-Salina -McPherson triangle.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Hey hey we could actually see something. A mesoscale discussion has come out for areas around ICT.

SPC says

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK IN AREA OF CONCERN... AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY IS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO SUPPORT RISK OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

Im a couple of miles E of Ict and have noticed that a cell is trying to fire just north of town. It looked like a nice tower from where im sitting. This is going to be a fun day.

Edit: several good looking towers are starting to fire in and around ict at this moment. Updrafts look healthy and are about to pass through my location. Cells will track NE. Scott I think your in a prime postion sitting in Marion right now. These towers should track in your general location.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Hey hey we could actually see something. A mesoscale discussion has come out for areas around ICT.

SPC says

Im a couple of miles E of Ict and have noticed that a cell is trying to fire just north of town. It looked like a nice tower from where im sitting. This is going to be a fun day.

Can anyone loop current satellite anywhere? Rap is giving some error and nasa is old, as was spc mesopage last I got it to boot up. Sucks nasa will load but is old. CIRA has been updating so I know the info is there. In McPherson now and can see the weak towers to the south.

 

[John MacKay]

Here is a couple of radars from one of the news stations in Wichita to use while ICT NWS is fixing their radar. Click on the Start button to activate the loop.

Wichita area radar
http://www.ksn.com/weather/weathergallery/repository/3778857.html

Broader area (includes all of E. KS)
http://www.ksn.com/weather/weathergallery/repository/3779437.html

It's better than nothing.

 

[afischer]

Well after my less-than-outstanding forecast for 2/23, today I'm simply basing my target on the coolest town name I can find. Clearly, this is Assaria, KS.

Having spent the night in Blackwell, am currently in Newton grabbin some data. Agitated high-based cu right on top of me which show up nice on latest vis image. Unless initiation occurs soon, I need to drift toward Salina... then more than likely eastward into the icky flint hills.

 

[Russel Parsons]

Satellite Information

Hey Mike, try using this website for current visible satellite data. The page will automatically update when new data comes in. I hope this helps you out a little.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

The front is passing through right now. The air doesnt have the moisture it had 15 mins ago. I'd give it another hour or so before we start seeing things get really started but the Cu's are pretty cool to look at even for this time of year. Also I can see that tower that mike is talking about even though its about 50 miles to the north of me and yes it looks really healthy right now. lol this is so much fun!!! I would also like to point out that on the visible sat loop the line of CU's that has formed in E sedgewick CO. and W Butler Co is very active but any tower that pops up is having a hard time sustaining an updraft for any length of time. This is the line of storms SPC said would form.

A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A NW-SE ORIENTEDBAND ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SERN KS AND LIFT NE. LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATTHROUGH EARLY EVENING.

If you pull a up a sat loop over KS you will see this line forming.

Edit: Precip has started to fall from the cell to my north. Its about 9 miles north of where I work in N Butler Co. Has a good precip core and rain free base. Should pass right by Marion. The updraft of the storm looks pretty good it is still growing and looks like it is pushing through the top.

 

[David Wolfson]

To my eye, the cold core triple point is in extreme southern Greenwood Co. (KS). I would be riding US 400 east from Beaumont following and watching the SSE-NNW oriented convergence for development either north or south, and expecting to trend ENEward toward Chanute. FWIW.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

There are 3 towers now to the N and NE of where im. The southern tower is exploding. It looks like it has pushed through the cape. Just took another look and by far that tower is really exploding. Looks to be N maybe Nw of Eldorado pushing into Marion Co. Precip should start to fall very soon from tower. Updraft looks like its holding together. The Nrn cell is falling apart.

 

[Bobby Prentice]

17z data suggests best "cold-core" tornado threat between 18-20z exists from the surface low (vorticity center) near Russell, KS east-southeastward along the warm front into the Salina-Lindsborg area. Mid-level dry slot (best seen in water vapor imagery) overlays this region and steep lapse rates exist for vertical stretching.

ADDS WV imagery loop

SPC Surface Dew Point and 700-500mb Lapse Rates

If I were chasing, I'd go sit on I-70 about 10-20 miles east of the surface low/vorticity center (still within viewing distance of the low) currently near Russell (KRSL).

SPC 0-3km CAPE and Surface Vorticity

It's possible the surface low could occlude between 19-21z and the primary tornado threat region could realign to areas a bit east of I-135. However, I'd play the I-70 (Russell and points east) corridor until that threat has clearly ended.