02/24/07 NOW: KS

Skip Talbot and I made the long drive from Chicago and are now sitting in a Super 8 parking lot in Abilene, KS (between Salina and Junction City) using their wi-fi. The setup today looks to be pretty good for a cold core event and I think we are in a pretty decent position now.
 
Headed out of ICT in the next hour or so. Initial target Marion, KS, moving N to NE. Really like the clearing developed behind the clouds right over my head now, and how it's positioned related to the low.

Be safe out there!:cool:
 
In Hutchinson now, just crossed the front. The cu field is rapidly thickening up. There was nothing but clear skies as I got near it, but it's rapidly filled in.
 
A few miles east of Marion was where we saw the first tornado of the day on 11/27/05 ! I have other obligations until noon, then i'll probably head out towards emporia, maybe a county north. Good luck to everyone today.
 
We'll have our whole crew in Abilene around 1pm.

We only have to drive thirty minutes today. A lot less than the 639 miles we drove yesterday. Crap.
 
Central Kasas "Cold-Core" Tornado Potential

The "cold-core" tornado potential looks ripe over central Kansas between 18-22z. Boundaries, moisture, dry slot, etc all appear to be focusing in an area bounded by Ellsworth-Junction City-Cottonwood Falls-McPherson-Ellsworth.

If I were chasing, I'd begin by positioning along the warm front just east of the surface low at 18z. This should be somewhere within the Ellsworth-Salina -McPherson triangle.
 
Hey hey we could actually see something. A mesoscale discussion has come out for areas around ICT.

SPC says
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK IN AREA OF CONCERN... AMBIENT
VERTICAL VORTICITY IS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO SUPPORT RISK OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

Im a couple of miles E of Ict and have noticed that a cell is trying to fire just north of town. It looked like a nice tower from where im sitting. This is going to be a fun day.

Edit: several good looking towers are starting to fire in and around ict at this moment. Updrafts look healthy and are about to pass through my location. Cells will track NE. Scott I think your in a prime postion sitting in Marion right now. These towers should track in your general location.
 
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Hey hey we could actually see something. A mesoscale discussion has come out for areas around ICT.

SPC says

Im a couple of miles E of Ict and have noticed that a cell is trying to fire just north of town. It looked like a nice tower from where im sitting. This is going to be a fun day.


Can anyone loop current satellite anywhere? Rap is giving some error and nasa is old, as was spc mesopage last I got it to boot up. Sucks nasa will load but is old. CIRA has been updating so I know the info is there. In McPherson now and can see the weak towers to the south.
 
Well after my less-than-outstanding forecast for 2/23, today I'm simply basing my target on the coolest town name I can find. Clearly, this is Assaria, KS.

Having spent the night in Blackwell, am currently in Newton grabbin some data. Agitated high-based cu right on top of me which show up nice on latest vis image. Unless initiation occurs soon, I need to drift toward Salina... then more than likely eastward into the icky flint hills.
 
Satellite Information

Hey Mike, try using this website for current visible satellite data. The page will automatically update when new data comes in. I hope this helps you out a little.
 
The front is passing through right now. The air doesnt have the moisture it had 15 mins ago. I'd give it another hour or so before we start seeing things get really started but the Cu's are pretty cool to look at even for this time of year. Also I can see that tower that mike is talking about even though its about 50 miles to the north of me and yes it looks really healthy right now. lol this is so much fun!!! I would also like to point out that on the visible sat loop the line of CU's that has formed in E sedgewick CO. and W Butler Co is very active but any tower that pops up is having a hard time sustaining an updraft for any length of time. This is the line of storms SPC said would form.
A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A NW-SE ORIENTEDBAND ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SERN KS AND LIFT NE. LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATTHROUGH EARLY EVENING.
If you pull a up a sat loop over KS you will see this line forming.

Edit: Precip has started to fall from the cell to my north. Its about 9 miles north of where I work in N Butler Co. Has a good precip core and rain free base. Should pass right by Marion. The updraft of the storm looks pretty good it is still growing and looks like it is pushing through the top.
 
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To my eye, the cold core triple point is in extreme southern Greenwood Co. (KS). I would be riding US 400 east from Beaumont following and watching the SSE-NNW oriented convergence for development either north or south, and expecting to trend ENEward toward Chanute. FWIW.
 
There are 3 towers now to the N and NE of where im. The southern tower is exploding. It looks like it has pushed through the cape. Just took another look and by far that tower is really exploding. Looks to be N maybe Nw of Eldorado pushing into Marion Co. Precip should start to fall very soon from tower. Updraft looks like its holding together. The Nrn cell is falling apart.
 
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17z data suggests best "cold-core" tornado threat between 18-20z exists from the surface low (vorticity center) near Russell, KS east-southeastward along the warm front into the Salina-Lindsborg area. Mid-level dry slot (best seen in water vapor imagery) overlays this region and steep lapse rates exist for vertical stretching.

ADDS WV imagery loop

SPC Surface Dew Point and 700-500mb Lapse Rates

If I were chasing, I'd go sit on I-70 about 10-20 miles east of the surface low/vorticity center (still within viewing distance of the low) currently near Russell (KRSL).

SPC 0-3km CAPE and Surface Vorticity

It's possible the surface low could occlude between 19-21z and the primary tornado threat region could realign to areas a bit east of I-135. However, I'd play the I-70 (Russell and points east) corridor until that threat has clearly ended.
 
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Good looking cell in Greenwood Co. right now actually has an anvil to it lol. Looks good on radar. Will have to watch and see what it does.

Edit: That tornado warning in Marion Co is the southern cell I was talking about earlier.
There are 3 towers now to the N and NE of where im. The southern tower is exploding. It looks like it has pushed through the cape. Just took another look and by far that tower is really exploding. Looks to be N maybe Nw of Eldorado pushing into Marion Co. Precip should start to fall very soon from tower. Updraft looks like its holding together. The Nrn cell is falling apart.
__________________

I just didnt think as soon as the precip would start to fall that we would see it go tor warned that fast. Its like as soon as it showed up on radar the thing was already rotating.


Edit: I think the switch has turned on cause my view to the north is filled with exploding towers to the north. Thing about this type of setup is when a cell like these goes up its already rotating when the precip starts to fall but the rotation doesnt last long. NWS is saying
WHILETHE STORM DOES NOT HAVE INTENSE RAINFALL OR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A
TORNADO COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH DOWN.
We can probaly expect this all day
 
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We're sitting here in Emporia waiting patiently for initiation. Hopefully this stubborn cloud cover will disappear, maybe then we can squeeze out some instability for the storms to feed off of. By the looks of things, I would expect explosive thunderstorm development by 2 or 3 PM.
 
The tornado warned cell in Marion county looks dead! while the one just to the West looks much better and has clear BV1 rotation.

Edit ~ the tornado warning has just been dropped for that cell. (the east one)
 
That updraft of the Marion Co cell that is tornado warned has the classic mushroom cloud look to it. I dont know if the storm has moved into more unstable air or what but something has happened and that thing it growing into a monster. Hell I can even see an overshooting top right now.
 
Here's a radar shot around 1:38PM EST of the Tornadic storm just north of Marion, KS.

If anyone can find streaming coverage of this tornado, please post a link to it.... Thanks ;)
 

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The warning states that it's Radar indicated... however there was a funnel cloud report from Marion when this cluster of cells moved through there.
 
The LSR of the funnel didn't specify where exactly the funnel was.

There happens to be two cells that look healthy on this one. The eastern one is where I'd guess the funnel report came from. These cells are riding along state highway 15 (K-15).

If you are in or near Salina, go to about exit 260 on I-70 or hang west of there.

If you are in or near Junction City, go to about exit 286 on I-70 (Chapman) and hang out there.
 
The tornado warned cell in Marion county looks dead! while the one just to the West looks much better and has clear BV1 rotation.

Edit ~ the tornado warning has just been dropped for that cell. (the east one)

Yes; seems like in this cold core setups, one's targeting/approach strategy is quite different from the classical situation. Storm motion and propogation are hard to distinguish from one another. In the instant case today, I would be out in the dry slot and clear skies, with good visibility, approaching from generally the southwest rather than waiting back to the northeast in the "moist sector" trying to guess at optimal parameters setting up later. (Easy for me to armchair at the moment, sitting back here in Virginia watching it all on the computer, but I'll be out on the plains by mid-April, so trying to get in the mode.)
 
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