01/12/05: NOW: Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois

[Robert Dewey]

Storms starting to roll across from Lake Michigan into western MI, near the GRR area. VAD shows 50knts at 4K feet (below that is ND), echo tops are around 25-30K feet. A narrow sliver of higher temps exists of 55-60F in western lower MI, compared to the 45-50F a tad further east in central lower MI. I wouldn't doubt it if a SVR was issued soon for a couple of these cells...

EDIT: Wow, the cell just west of the shoreline is peaking near 65-70 DBz...

 

[Shyanna Busch]

There's a tornado warning near West Plains, MO right now. Dopplar is showing a beautiful eye. Almost a perfect circle.

 

[rdale]

I don't think mini-hail and potential for 40-50mph winds would make a chase target ;> I think that potent area won't remain so nasty for long as it continues moving NE (although NWS says it's moving due E, I don't see how.) Everything downstream (and headed towards us) nowhere near as impressive.

 

[rdale]

According to NWS the Newaygo storm is going to stop for the next 20 minutes ;> That one appears to be weakening on schedule, I still don't see the southern stuff doing much.

 

[Skip Talbot]

KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 738 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH..

I went out to spot for this warning. Drove into the center of the polygon as indicated by Gibson Ridge... not so much a hint of a FFD, let alone 60-70 mph. Gotta love public reported warnings, but you never know... perhaps those cells were gusting out strong just before they died.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Skip Talbot

KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 738 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH..

I went out to spot for this warning. Drove into the center of the polygon as indicated by Gibson Ridge... not so much a hint of a FFD, let alone 60-70 mph. Gotta love public reported warnings, but you never know... perhaps those cells were gusting out strong just before they died.

You probably hit the nail on the head... I bet winds gusted out to 55-60MPH as the storms collapsed, but the public tends to beef up wind/hail reports (like reporting pea sized hail as golfballs, etc.).

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by rdewey
You probably hit the nail on the head... I bet winds gusted out to 55-60MPH as the storms collapsed, but the public tends to beef up wind/hail reports (like reporting pea sized hail as golfballs, etc.).

Not to continue on a off-topic discussion on a TA thread, but it's spotters who I find the worst sometimes. They report scud as tornadoes, dime-sized hail as softballs (Jackson Co, MI Fire Department) and 40 mph winds and 60 mph winds...

Going back to the current situation in Michigan... Another potent thunderstorm probably producing 0.5" inch hail is near Holland and moving east-northeastward. A line that extends from GRR to Benton Harbor is probably producing small hail and 40 mph winds... and looking at lightning activity, it's producing some pretty good lightning also. I would still go after these storms if anybody lives in that area...

I would guess Mike Geukes and Kurt Hulst should be out on some of these cells tonight, at least I hope so...

It is currently 57 degrees in my location, with a dew point of around 52 degrees.

..Nick..

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Looks as if the severe threat has more or less diminished, and has become more of a flooding issue across central Illinois...where areas recieved 2-3 inches last nite...and are recieving several more inches tonite, as storms drop rainfall amounts of 1-2" per hour.

I personally wasnt about to waste my gas money on these cells. Being January, there would have been absolutely nothing to see visually, and, while there were a few warnings, not many severe reports ever came out of them. It was an exciting day by january standards, but not worth going out for.