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01/12/05: NOW: Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois

SVR for Muskogee & McIntosh

This is fresh out -

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 356 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARNER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WARNER...
KEEFETON...WEBBERS FALLS...BRAGGS...PUMPKIN CENTER AND FORT GIBSON.

LAT...LON 3536 9555 3532 9537 3542 9510 3582 9514
3581 9533

WX5TUL at NWS is on the air, just announced TOR for Muskogee!
 
TORNADO WARNING
FOR BARRY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY MO UNTIL 5:15 PM CST. DOPPLER INDICATED
 
Issued at 4:35 -


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 421 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF GORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAHLEQUAH
...SHORT...COOKSON AND TENKILLER DAM.

LAT...LON 3535 9451 3531 9450 3534 9459 3528 9467
3531 9466 3535 9471 3535 9481 3538 9486
3537 9489 3544 9497 3547 9506 3554 9513
3582 9513 3607 9496 3568 9481 3565 9486
3565 9447 3540 9444

Radar indicated, Tahlequah EOC activated.
 
Sequoyah Co. dropped from TOR at 4:45, Muskogee TOR allowed to expire.
 
This came out just before 5 PM.

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 456 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PROCTOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PROCTOR...
CHRISTIE...BARON...WESTVILLE AND WATTS.

LAT...LON 3603 9480 3578 9481 3596 9453 3617 9457
3612 9471

Still radar indicated. Westville EOC has been activated for some time. Cherokee TOR has been dropped.

This system is moving fast. Good warmup for later, I guess.
 
TOR WARNING CANCELLED
FOR BARRY AND LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SW MO AT 451 PM CST
 
The storms are racing past us here in Madison,WI at 70 to 80 MPH! Just a lot of rain, and a little thunder. It's rare to see such activity this time of year. Thankfully it's raining, not snowing.
 
Tornado warnings on the Illinois/Missouri border currently...with new storms firing ahead of the squall line in central illinois.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 733 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION OVER CLARKSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
 
A new warning in the Chicago Metro Area for areas SW and W of the city.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

Interesting little pocket of -1 to -3 C LI values there. Expect mainly isolated damaging wind reports.

...Alex Lamers...
 
Originally posted by Alex Lamers
A new warning in the Chicago Metro Area for areas SW and W of the city.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

Interesting little pocket of -1 to -3 C LI values there. Expect mainly isolated damaging wind reports.

...Alex Lamers...

Temps in the area have creeped up into the low to mid 60's with Td's around 55-57F. This is combining with CAA setting in at 700mb and a pocket of 500mb temps near -18C which has dipped south ahead of the squall line. Strong winds aloft could easily be mixed down, as winds are near SVR criteria within the first 3K feet...

Here is the image of the 500mb temps, current as of 0200Z -- Notice the dip near LOT:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc0...0hr_500_tmp.gif
 
Storms starting to roll across from Lake Michigan into western MI, near the GRR area. VAD shows 50knts at 4K feet (below that is ND), echo tops are around 25-30K feet. A narrow sliver of higher temps exists of 55-60F in western lower MI, compared to the 45-50F a tad further east in central lower MI. I wouldn't doubt it if a SVR was issued soon for a couple of these cells...

EDIT: Wow, the cell just west of the shoreline is peaking near 65-70 DBz...
 
There's a tornado warning near West Plains, MO right now. Dopplar is showing a beautiful eye. Almost a perfect circle.
 
I don't think mini-hail and potential for 40-50mph winds would make a chase target ;> I think that potent area won't remain so nasty for long as it continues moving NE (although NWS says it's moving due E, I don't see how.) Everything downstream (and headed towards us) nowhere near as impressive.
 
According to NWS the Newaygo storm is going to stop for the next 20 minutes ;> That one appears to be weakening on schedule, I still don't see the southern stuff doing much.
 
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 738 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH..

I went out to spot for this warning. Drove into the center of the polygon as indicated by Gibson Ridge... not so much a hint of a FFD, let alone 60-70 mph. Gotta love public reported warnings, but you never know... perhaps those cells were gusting out strong just before they died.
 
Originally posted by Skip Talbot
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 738 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH..

I went out to spot for this warning. Drove into the center of the polygon as indicated by Gibson Ridge... not so much a hint of a FFD, let alone 60-70 mph. Gotta love public reported warnings, but you never know... perhaps those cells were gusting out strong just before they died.

You probably hit the nail on the head... I bet winds gusted out to 55-60MPH as the storms collapsed, but the public tends to beef up wind/hail reports (like reporting pea sized hail as golfballs, etc.).
 
Originally posted by rdewey
You probably hit the nail on the head... I bet winds gusted out to 55-60MPH as the storms collapsed, but the public tends to beef up wind/hail reports (like reporting pea sized hail as golfballs, etc.).

Not to continue on a off-topic discussion on a TA thread, but it's spotters who I find the worst sometimes. They report scud as tornadoes, dime-sized hail as softballs (Jackson Co, MI Fire Department) and 40 mph winds and 60 mph winds...

Going back to the current situation in Michigan... Another potent thunderstorm probably producing 0.5" inch hail is near Holland and moving east-northeastward. A line that extends from GRR to Benton Harbor is probably producing small hail and 40 mph winds... and looking at lightning activity, it's producing some pretty good lightning also. I would still go after these storms if anybody lives in that area...

I would guess Mike Geukes and Kurt Hulst should be out on some of these cells tonight, at least I hope so...

It is currently 57 degrees in my location, with a dew point of around 52 degrees.

..Nick..
 
Looks as if the severe threat has more or less diminished, and has become more of a flooding issue across central Illinois...where areas recieved 2-3 inches last nite...and are recieving several more inches tonite, as storms drop rainfall amounts of 1-2" per hour.

I personally wasnt about to waste my gas money on these cells. Being January, there would have been absolutely nothing to see visually, and, while there were a few warnings, not many severe reports ever came out of them. It was an exciting day by january standards, but not worth going out for.
 
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