01/02/05: NOW: Midwest into the Gulf

[nickgrillo]

Widespread thunderstorms are now initiating near the warm front as large-scale ascent associated with amplifying mid-level shortwave begins to move into moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Currently elevated thunderstorms should become rooted in the boundary layer as effective inflow parcels begin to become surface-based or at least NEAR surface-based as forcing for ascent continues to remove large amounts of CINH. Increasing low-level WAA and moisture advection northwasrd (associated with 50-60kt SW LLJ) and steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with the intense mid-level trough is contributing to increasing MLCAPES of 250-500j/kg across the area... BL-6km shear supports supercells (with at least 40-50kt deep shear) while extreme low-level shear supports potential for tornadoes (including a strong tornado or two across western KY/southern IN by the mid-morning) with any sustained storms (0-1km SRH at least 450m2/s2).

A start of a great day...

 

[Scott Olson]

Could be an interesting night for the SE. CAPE holds pretty tight throughout the south as moisture streams northward. Some AFD's mention possibility of overnight tornadoes. I'd think for the most part storms should be at least slightly elevated until some heating can occur in the morning. Best chance IMO will be in Alabama in the early morning hours and perhaps a second round as the DL approaches. Nick, I thought you'd be chasing this one..

-Scott.

 

[Andrew Khan]

GA is going to get some bad crap tonight....there already looks to be what looks like some sort of apendage moving into Grady county, GA that has very broad low level rotation and pretty tight mid-level and high-level rotation in the storm. It looks like it could produce a tornado in a given amount of time. Rotation still needs to build downward more. A broad radius of rotation at 10.7 NM, which is quite large...as well as a pretty well-defined v-notch. Near Houston County, AL they have already recieved 6.00+ inches of rain from this storm. Tops may be about 40,000 ft. VIL is pretty high values at 42.5 kg/m2...which will lead to large hail.

 

[nickgrillo]

Storms have been firing just east of the surface low / along the warm front... TOR-warned storm showing a sweet low-level couplet near Saint James, MO. It's good to see storms finally rooting.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Storms have been firing just east of the surface low / along the warm front... TOR-warned storm showing a sweet low-level couplet near Saint James, MO. It's good to see storms finally rooting.

Wow, I hadn't even been paying attention. The low-level shear couplet with that storm is impressive. Fortunately, it appears that it'll miss St. Louis to the west. That said, in the past few frames, it does look like it's tried to make a turn to the right a bit (not suprising given the development of a strong low-level mesocyclone). Nice elevated reflectivity max as well.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Currently at home here in CRW watching and taping TSRA with CG and anvil crawler show with temps at 38F. RLX just south of town (5 miles) is reporting 49F.

EDIT: Nice sharp WF just passed. Might even be able to drive north a few miles and feel the temperature change again. Shot up to 50F here at the house with waves of thunderstorms continuing.

 

[tom hanlon]

4:00 AM here in SE ohio. Nice thunderstorms for January moving through. Lightning and what sounded like a little hail in the beginning but I was unable to confirm.

Would be nice to stay up and get some photos of the next strom that comes through but tomorrow looks like I maight have to drive around and around in case the severe potential moves Northward, as I expect it will as the day goes on.

What a beginning.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[nickgrillo]

Strong persistant supercell continues to exhibit a low-level mesocyclone near St. Paul. Current mesoanalysis shows widespread 500 j/kg of MLCAPE (supported by strong low-level WAA and moist boundary layer) across the region... With backed surface flow (with about 250m2/s2 0-1km SRH invof potentially-tornadic supercell) east of the surface low. Supercell potential should be the highest in central/eastern MO (and into IL) as the surface cyclone moves through and the strongest deep-layer forcing continues to dig through the region (allowing for pervasive development).

 

[George Tincher]

That storm sitting over Franklin County, MO is ABSOLUTELY beautiful in it's organization. I have been watching it for awhile and it seems the base keeps gradually lowering more and more. The town of Union is going to be in or very near the path of any potential tornado this storm may be producing.

BTW, I have encountered several rounds of thunderstorms here in Kentucky so far tonight, some producing fairly heavy rain and lots of lightning.

 

[Joel Wright]

WOW!!

Just had a hailstorm here at the house, on January 2nd!? Albeit was pea sized hail mixed with heavy rain, but man did it come down hard for a few minutes. All the while with numerous CG's. The thunder is still crashing as I type this making me wonder about losing power.

Absolutely amazing for early January for NW IL. I did not expect anything like this tonight!

 

[David Draun]

WOW!!

Just had a hailstorm here at the house, on January 2nd!? Albeit was pea sized hail mixed with heavy rain, but man did it come down hard for a few minutes. All the while with numerous CG's. The thunder is still crashing as I type this making me wonder about losing power.

Absolutely amazing for early January for NW IL. I did not expect anything like this tonight!

The Chicago radar looks like spring. I wish I was there! :shock: Lots of isolated stuff ahead of the cluster in Western IL. My home should get some waves of pretty decent storms all on January 2nd. Some impressive precip cores are there, although it's nothing severe. I'm seeing 50 and 60 dbz

 

[George Tincher]

Interesting to note that the SPC really cut down on the NRWD extent of the moderate risk. They have completely taken KY and TN out of it, leaving those areas in a slight risk while keeping the moderate in place much farther S in AL, GA, SC and the FL Panhandle.

Taking a quick look at the more SRN part of the threat area, the SPC has just issued a PDS tornado watch that runs until 4 PM. Within that area are indeed some favorable conditions for supercells and tornadic activity. Winds are backed over most of that region, SB CAPE is as high as 2500 j/kg, lifted indices from -5 to -8 are common and 0-1 KM SRH is in the 400-450 range, with locally higher amounts present. The supercell composite parameter varies from about 12 up to 18 over much of this area.

There's lots of activity ongoing at the moment and it appears much of that area may be under the gun for a good portion of the day.

 

[mrobinett]

Sitting here in Albany, GA waiting, the place is really socked in, lightning is abundent however. I see via BK internet that most is to the west of me now.

Mike R.

 

[PaulChambers]

The storms were quite impressive here in Franklin County, Missouri!!! Watching the stars AND storms at the same time was exciting! Here are a couple of pics...

(Well, I tried to post a couple of pics, but I can't seem to get them to work!!)

 

[Andrew Khan]

A very nice line is setting up near Noble, IL. With very high DBZ values, in the 62.5 range, and very high VIL of 45 kg/m2. It looks like also, that 1.25 in hail is falling near Sailor Springs, IL.