You want to see blizzard? Check this out...

Originally posted by rdale
48hr RUC though keeps all good snows out of MI... If I could get at least the NAM or RUC onboard I'd be much more confident, but that's not happening. Yet.
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Don't look now, but the 00Z NAM is even stronger and further west than the 12Z/18Z GFS. Looks like a line east of Port Huron to Ann Arbor is going to get wasted with high winds (NAM progs 30KNT sustained) and very heavy snow. This thing will be moving S-L-O-W once it deepens to about 980MB or so.
 
This is just amazing. The 00Z GEM on board with a 977MB low, identical to the NAM. If this happens, I would expect quite the blizzard for areas just west of the 850MB low track. In fact, this may be one of the worst blizzards to affect this area in that past 30 years.

Detroit's 24 hour record snowfall comes in at exactly two feet... Don't know if that's in jeopardy or not, but the Blizzard of 1999 did lay down 12-18 inches towards that area and wasn't nearly as deep or slow moving.

Maybe I am just over hyping, but I've never been on the northwest side of a 975-980MB bomb in February, with snow the main precipitation type.
 
This strikes me as one of those developing weather situations that end up being worse than forecasted. I expect the low to track even further west than 00z NAM shows...Indiana and the Lower Great Lakes will get blasted, IMHO. Of course, I expect mainly rain at my location...just maybe some back-lash snows.
 
Originally posted by Michael Auker
This strikes me as one of those developing weather situations that end up being worse than forecasted.
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That might be the case. This thing already looks good on the WV and NOWRAD loop... GFS has just beefed up QPF towards 1.35 inches for my area, and 1.50 around Port Huron. Snow to liquid ratios always give me a hard time, but the profile looks like it's pretty cold, so I'm going to say 15 to 1 (powder).

Either way, a 15 to 1 with the GFS puts my location up near 20 inches, with Port Huron seeing around 22-24 inches. This would be true if we took the QPF grid values and assumed they were 100% true, which they probably aren't. Though, I would imagine if the storm is as deep as progged, and trends continue... Someone might be looking at +24 inch snowstorm. That's a far cry from what actual forecasts have out, but it's also not the most climatological forecast (our typical "big" snowstorm is 8-10 inches, 12 inches tops). So I can definitely see the hesitation. They usually wait for the event to actually start unfolding before beefing up snow totals, to kind of narrow it down better.

Haven't looked at cross sections or static stability, so I'm not sure about thundersnow chances or perhaps banding to further enhance snowfall totals slightly.

As for the wind aspect, things should easily meet blizzard criteria of 35MPH, with gusts more likely to hit or exceed 45MPH. The duration of the event is roughly 18 hours of rather intense snowfall, then forcing and mid level moisture begin to strip away around noon on Sunday.

Anyway, they have 300 people with shovels on standby for the Super Bowl... Hope they have fun :lol:
 
Well, a nice shield of precip is rappidly expanding towards MI. Looks like Detroit is really going to get it, especially early tonight. I think the big winner will be a hundred miles or more north of DTX. Detroit should still end up with a solid 7-9" though. Normally with the surface low passing so close I'd be concerned about rain trying to mix back in later on as the warm bubble near the low passes, but that doesn't look to be an issue with this storm. If this storm slows down at all, and decides to stick around a bit longer; that bullseye could very well be closer to Detroit. I wouldn't put it in a forecast, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 12-14" reports near Detroit for any areas that get stuck under some "bonus bands."


Damn you Dewey, I told you to back this storm up a few hundred miles west! :cry: :P
 
Damn you Dewey, I told you to back this storm up a few hundred miles west! :cry: :P
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Heh, oops... With the way this winter is, I take what I can get :lol:

Anyway, 06Z models were a touch further west and a bit stronger (about 4MB on the NAM). QPF still up around 1.35 inches, or slightly higher for my area. I'm roughly 40 miles straight north of Detroit. It wouldn't surprise me if most of the warning area north of Detroit is switched to a blizzard warning. Each model run shows this thing being slightly more intense... Wind is definitely going to be a problem.

I expect this storm to slow slightly more than what is currently forecast, but this thing will already be moving slow. The AFD for TAFS mentions 14-18 hours of HVY snow, I could see this being closer to the 18 hours. Even if we managed one inch per hour for 8-12 hours, and then half inch per hour for the rest of the period, you're talking 11-15 inches. But, I expect at least a couple hours of +2 inch rates with this much forcing, the bombogenesis, and low static stability. This storm is more along the lines of a nor'easter over land... It's kind of rare to see low pressure getting down to sub 980MB this far south and over land (i.e. it's not a monthly event, or even bi-monthly event).

One thing I did notice is that on the NAM, the dry slot comes very close...
 
I'm sitting here watching the east side of the center of the low graze me. Boring steady rain outside now. I was hoping with such a bombing low that being near the center would have at least brought some lightning. Still very much on the warm side of things in the mid 50s. We just aren't going to see anything with this until late tonight after it's been below freezing for a while. And even then it will not be much. Mountains are even further on the warm side, so they aren't going to see anything notable. The exception is of course up north. Par for the course this year!
 
A "bright band" is moving overhead right now, getting a rain snow mix. That band appears to be almost stationary.

The RUC has the best initialization, and I am going to rely on that model from this point forward. As DTX noted, the NAM/GFS initialized things a bit too far west... But the RUC does end up with a further west SFC low and 850MB low track. If the RUC were to be correct, my area would see roughly 2-3 inches per hour for 6 hours, with ~1 inch per hour accums. enveloping. That's in addition to sustained 25-30KNT winds (blizzard criteria). Winds already picking up a bit... But, that's not until a bit later.

I just hope this rain changes over real quick and doesn't drag on... And I also hope the RUC is dead on, and the low doesn't track any further west. It's slated to pass very near Lake St. Claire, and being at the center of the low would bring in some warmer air AND cut down on wind potential...
 
All snow for the past 30 minutes, now coming down moderately with visibility around 1/2 mile. Starting to accumulate on the ground, with a very slushy accumulation (about 1/10th of an inch) on a few elevated surfaces.

EDIT: It's coming down hard. Ground is now white, flakes are HUGE. Visibility is definitely less than 1/2 mile. I'm surprised, quite a few stations around me still reporting rain.
 
I dunno - still a Winter Storm Warning for 6+ inches in Detroit, just updated, but I can't see how in the world that's going to happen (especially with 0" being reported so far.)
 
I dunno - still a Winter Storm Warning for 6+ inches in Detroit, just updated, but I can't see how in the world that's going to happen (especially with 0" being reported so far.)
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Detroit is pretty farth south of that main band. It's snowing at about 2 inches per hour here now... Visibility is down to about 1/4 mile. It's getting pretty bad. If this band were to stall out, I could easily see warning criteria NORTH of Detroit.
 
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