You want to see blizzard? Check this out...

This is a bit off target from the thread title, but if you haven't yet check out today's 12Z NAM 66hr 0-1km EHI over parts of the central and eastern FL panhandle. Upwards of 6, yikes! And valid for 2am, hope that scenario does not verify.
 
Interesting... 18Z NAM has trended about 100 miles further west than the 00Z NAM (and 06Z, 12Z NAM runs). 12Z GFS also made an abrupt change and is now the farthest west (versus the farthest east), with the RGEM also on board.

Looks like this storm may not be dead afterall... Glad I kept at least some hope alive.
 
EDIT: Wow, 18Z GFS has trended back towards a monster, easily reaching the requirements for a meteorological bomb.

I'm liking these trends alot. Almost 1.25 inches at my location with very cold temperatures... Looks like a ratio of 15 to 1 if the thermal profile verified. To top it off, the pressure gradient is very strong with +50KNTS in the low levels. The rate of deepening would also suggest pretty high pressure fall/rise couplet. We would definitely be talking about a blizzard (potentially a "severe" blizzard)...

But... I think we should at least wait until the models can agree on something :lol:
 
00Z's still trending westward... Looks like the 12Z and 18Z data underestimated the strength of that upper level jet quite a bit. The stronger the upper level jet is, the farther west that system will wrap up.

I'm going to bet on the SFC low ending up between CLE and the PA boarder. I really think this will be a monster.
 
Big Weekend Storm

Have my fingers crossed. I first noticed this storm on the GFS a few days ago, only to see this storm disapear all together. Here at the West end of Lake Ontario, looking for snow, even on North-facing wooded slopes, is just about as hard as prospecting for gold. I was thrilled to see this storm re-apear over the last 24 hours in some form or another on almost every model...GEM(GLOB),GEM(REG),UKMET,ECMRF,NAM(eta),GFS,MM5.

It was a bit of a drag that on tonight's runs the GEM models, even the REG were weaker and further east. One thing that I have noticed is that the last few RUC runs show a stronger 500mb jet plunging down behind the positively tilted short wave over TX. I am hoping this may mean more digging, negetive tilting, and a more wraped up and further W track of the surface low. the HPC people and the latest GFS output suggest about 2 inches of pricip for me. If even half of the precip falls as snow with a 10/1 snow/water ratio, this could be an impresive snow-storm were I am located.
 
Well, 12Z NAM is a bit further west but weaker. This doesn't make sense - they upper level jet and shortwave are stronger on this run.

The latest RGEM is on board with a significant westward trend compared to the 00Z models and now paints a healthy 974MB low over Ontario with nearly 2 inches of QPF into the cold air (where snow ratios are at least 12 to 1). This thing will not only be tapping Gulf moisture, but also a feed from the Atlantic... In addition, the very cold thermal profile easily suggests snowfall with a decent ratio, at least over here in Super Bowl Land.

I'm still thinking this is going to be a monster of a storm, possibly one of the strongest winter storms in quite some time over this area. The models are just now picking up on this, and continue to get stronger with each run (with the exception of the latest NAM).

Needless to say, I am pretty excited... Definitely need a quick cure for SDS.
 
After looking at the rest of the data and seeing the continuing trends, I'm thinking the 850MB low will track towards CLE, or possibly a bit further west. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this thing will end up at around 980MB over southern Ontario Canada, as I still think the models are underestimating the jet diving into the southwest just a hair...

This thing looks like it really slows down too, so any heavy snowfall will be prolonged.
 
Winter Storm Watches going up... Also, something potentially very interesting...

SFC data down south indicates SFC pressure already as low as 1002MB, or about 6MB's deeper than even the GFS. In addition, several METAR stations are reporting wind gusts as high as 35KNTS. Also, a baroclinic leaf signature is evident on the WV loop indicating that cyclogenesis has started.

The RUC seems to be handling things a bit better as far as the SFC pattern is concerned.

These are all signs that would seem to point towards a stronger and further west solution.

I'll update my personal little blog a bit later :lol:
 
48hr RUC though keeps all good snows out of MI... If I could get at least the NAM or RUC onboard I'd be much more confident, but that's not happening. Yet.
 
Here comes the blue starting to fill in across the NWS county map. Unfortunately I think the only real fun is going to be in the mountains and farther north. Likely just another borderline freezing event here in CRW, wet snow all day with no accumulation and maybe some slush on the grass. Thankfully all I have to do is drive 45 minutes east and I'm 2,500-3,000 feet up, and well below freezing for most of the event. I wish I could actually stay home for once to enjoy one of these things!
 
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