You want to see blizzard? Check this out...

Robert Dewey

Robert Dewey

EF5
Joined
Feb 29, 2004
Messages
4,133
Location
Rochester Hills, Michigan, United States of Americ
Check out the latest 18Z GFS --> http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_850_168m.gif

That would be one HELL of a storm... It's down to 989MB, in the deep south no less, at 138HRS. This thing then explodes to 970MB near CLE with very heavy snow over much of MI, spreading back towards Joel and Dan Cook. SFC winds are sustained at nearly 40KNTS with high snow ratios (-10C 850MB isotherm is even peaking in).

It's obviously way out, but this I just wanted to bring this up because this is definitely one of the strongest storms I have seen on the GFS... Regardless of if it verifies or not.

If you're a met fan, you'll definitely understand where I'm coming from -- especially in this boring pattern.
 
Originally posted by rdewey
Check out the latest 18Z GFS --> This thing then explodes to 970MB near CLE with very heavy snow over much of MI, spreading back towards Joel and Dan Cook. SFC winds are sustained at nearly 40KNTS with high snow ratios (-10C 850MB isotherm is even peaking in).
Click to expand...

Instead of using states, towns, etc I think we should refer to all of our locations using known forum member's home location. Just kidding.

Anyway, this is sure in dreamland for me. 180 Hours is a long time. That storm track would indicate another very warm event for the east coast. Seems to me that big events like this always help induce a pattern change (no science behind that, just a hunch).
 
The severe potential in the warm sector of such a system would be something to watch. A good dry slot wrapping in there would make things interesting.
 
This storm interests me both in the aspects of winter weather and severe weather and the fact that it will be Super Bowl Weekend...in Detroit...which is just a fat SCREAMING target.

Ensemble spreads from the 12Z NCEP run were still pretty substantial which basically means don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch yet.

However there are reasons to be encouraged. First of all, the GFS caught everyone's eye for sure...but other models are on board with the idea of a major low...the question is placement and exact timing. The weekend is pretty safe time estimate but location is still very vague. Here in the Milwaukee area I'm looking at anything from a blizzard to sunny skies.

Should this thing even deepen to the respectable 990mb-ish level of the ECMWF we should be looking at areas receiving substantial winter storm conditions and possibly an outbreak of severe storms and possibly tornadoes in the warm sector. The good news for chasers is that there shouldn't be a lot of lateral movement in the storms but they will be racin north...if in fact they do form.

It definately bears watching but I am still skeptical. Bold 18z runs usually wind up having their solutions moderated. We're lookin at about the Fri 00z or 12z runs for the energy to come on shore...so until then look for a lot of flip floppin.
 
Alex... Another thing to note is that the GFS has been nearly consistant over the past 4 days with this system. This storm was showing up in the lower resolution at +240HRS, and kept consistancy 'til about 180HRS... It backed off a bit, but the past 3 runs or so have show some great potential.

The GFS has been very consistant, and even the GGEM was showing a very intense system durint the past run (gone now on the 12Z)...

I'll be watching -- that would be pretty sweet to see a storm of the intensity the GFS is showing, on the Super Bowl weekend here in DTW.
 
Well this 18z run is not quite consistent. It is definately much farther west than previous runs. Most models are on a different track right now (the DGEX has the low off the coast :lol:). But yes, there is a general consistency of a strong low which is why im intrigued...but not expectant.
 
Shouldn't have volunteered to host a Super Bowl Party at my house! There will be a moderate/high risk over us on Sunday for sure.
 
Hey hey all, remember that Ronald McDonald has poured a ~150mb thick layer (from the sfc on up) of hot and juicy french fries onto MI and the surrounding vicinity... Preventing any chances for snow making it to the sfc!

<img src=http://www.lincolnlibrary.com/ron.jpg>

Ronald says no to snow...
 
The new 0Z GFS shows the storm much more progressive. Basically non-existant for all but the far east coast.

This is why I don't even bother looking at model forecasts beyond 72hrs. It's a waste of time.
 
Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....
 
Originally posted by Alex Lamers
We're lookin at about the Fri 00z or 12z runs for the energy to come on shore...so until then look for a lot of flip floppin.
Click to expand...

Here's the first flip. When will the flop be? Any bets? :D
 
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