You want to see blizzard? Check this out...

Check out the latest 18Z GFS --> http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_850_168m.gif

That would be one HELL of a storm... It's down to 989MB, in the deep south no less, at 138HRS. This thing then explodes to 970MB near CLE with very heavy snow over much of MI, spreading back towards Joel and Dan Cook. SFC winds are sustained at nearly 40KNTS with high snow ratios (-10C 850MB isotherm is even peaking in).

It's obviously way out, but this I just wanted to bring this up because this is definitely one of the strongest storms I have seen on the GFS... Regardless of if it verifies or not.

If you're a met fan, you'll definitely understand where I'm coming from -- especially in this boring pattern.
 
Originally posted by rdewey
Check out the latest 18Z GFS --> This thing then explodes to 970MB near CLE with very heavy snow over much of MI, spreading back towards Joel and Dan Cook. SFC winds are sustained at nearly 40KNTS with high snow ratios (-10C 850MB isotherm is even peaking in).

Instead of using states, towns, etc I think we should refer to all of our locations using known forum member's home location. Just kidding.

Anyway, this is sure in dreamland for me. 180 Hours is a long time. That storm track would indicate another very warm event for the east coast. Seems to me that big events like this always help induce a pattern change (no science behind that, just a hunch).
 
ECMWF has a storm, not NEARLY as deep... But it still hits 989MB-ish, which is pretty respectable.

Then again, by me starting this thread... And Nick Grillo's dancing RonMcDon, I think this storm is dead in the water. :lol:
 
The severe potential in the warm sector of such a system would be something to watch. A good dry slot wrapping in there would make things interesting.
 
This storm interests me both in the aspects of winter weather and severe weather and the fact that it will be Super Bowl Weekend...in Detroit...which is just a fat SCREAMING target.

Ensemble spreads from the 12Z NCEP run were still pretty substantial which basically means don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch yet.

However there are reasons to be encouraged. First of all, the GFS caught everyone's eye for sure...but other models are on board with the idea of a major low...the question is placement and exact timing. The weekend is pretty safe time estimate but location is still very vague. Here in the Milwaukee area I'm looking at anything from a blizzard to sunny skies.

Should this thing even deepen to the respectable 990mb-ish level of the ECMWF we should be looking at areas receiving substantial winter storm conditions and possibly an outbreak of severe storms and possibly tornadoes in the warm sector. The good news for chasers is that there shouldn't be a lot of lateral movement in the storms but they will be racin north...if in fact they do form.

It definately bears watching but I am still skeptical. Bold 18z runs usually wind up having their solutions moderated. We're lookin at about the Fri 00z or 12z runs for the energy to come on shore...so until then look for a lot of flip floppin.
 
Alex... Another thing to note is that the GFS has been nearly consistant over the past 4 days with this system. This storm was showing up in the lower resolution at +240HRS, and kept consistancy 'til about 180HRS... It backed off a bit, but the past 3 runs or so have show some great potential.

The GFS has been very consistant, and even the GGEM was showing a very intense system durint the past run (gone now on the 12Z)...

I'll be watching -- that would be pretty sweet to see a storm of the intensity the GFS is showing, on the Super Bowl weekend here in DTW.
 
Well this 18z run is not quite consistent. It is definately much farther west than previous runs. Most models are on a different track right now (the DGEX has the low off the coast :lol:). But yes, there is a general consistency of a strong low which is why im intrigued...but not expectant.
 
Shouldn't have volunteered to host a Super Bowl Party at my house! There will be a moderate/high risk over us on Sunday for sure.
 
Hey hey all, remember that Ronald McDonald has poured a ~150mb thick layer (from the sfc on up) of hot and juicy french fries onto MI and the surrounding vicinity... Preventing any chances for snow making it to the sfc!

<img src=http://www.lincolnlibrary.com/ron.jpg>

Ronald says no to snow...
 
The new 0Z GFS shows the storm much more progressive. Basically non-existant for all but the far east coast.

This is why I don't even bother looking at model forecasts beyond 72hrs. It's a waste of time.
 
Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....
 
I knew McDonny would return! :lol:

Joel - I agree, but that WAS a pretty picture the GFS had. I'm making it my background right now :D
 
Originally posted by Alex Lamers
We're lookin at about the Fri 00z or 12z runs for the energy to come on shore...so until then look for a lot of flip floppin.

Here's the first flip. When will the flop be? Any bets? :D
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....


LMAO!!!


On a semi related note. I hope it snows; my igloo is now just a puddle of mud again.
 
BTW... 00Z GGEM now has the storm, last run didn't. There will definitely be some flipping and flopping. But the storm is so far away, there is even a good chance that it may not pan out at all.
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Nick you should find a doctor and tell him about the abuse you suffered from Ronald as a child. Don't hold that stuff in man. We're here for you....well...somebody probably is.....

Mike, I and the state of MI has a fever, and the only prescription is... More french fries!

<img src=http://www.rageboy.com/images/french-fries.jpg>

Elvira, elvira... Giddy Up Oom Poppa Omm Poppa Mow Mow... Da, la la...

<img src=http://www.fortogden.com/animronaldmacdonald.gif>
 
Nick, Nick, Nick.......I'm so shocked you aren't a moderator ;)
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Nick, Nick, Nick.......I'm so shocked you aren't a moderator ;)

That's okay... I moderate the snowfall rates of MI... I have banned all winter storms until they issue an apology for being cold and yucky... :eek: :lol:
 
Nick... Along with the snow chances being removed, the severe weather chances are equally disipated. In winter, you usually don't have one without the other. The people on the south end get a nice outbreak, while people on the north end get a nice snowstorm/blizzard.

So... Not only are you angering the winter enthusiasts (or weather enthusiasts), but now the folks in the south who would have had one hell of an outbreak :wink:

BTW... That's why MI has 4 Great Lakes surrounding it -- they wanted to make sure you had plenty to pick from before you threw yourself in (or someone else does it for you) LOL :lol::D
 
Originally posted by rdewey
It's back on the 12Z run of the GFS...

Weather enthusiasts and storm chasers - rejoice!

Prediction: Gone by the 00Z, again.



I like what the 12z GFS shows, but can you back it a few hundred miles west please? :p
 
Well, what I DO like is the fact that development appears to take place sooner (at least in the mid levels) at 84-90HRs on the GFS.

The Canadian has backed off since the 00Z run. The 12Z UKMET has development at 72HR in the deep south (I don't get any data beyond that), and the 00Z ECMWF (12Z not in yet) shows EXPLOSIVE development, dipping a low just below 970MB over Ontario Canada (the strongest solution as of so far).
 
You know, if there is in fact a snowstorm in Detroit Saturday night into Sunday, it will be too bad Ford Field is covered. If it were to snow heavily during that time it could have been one of the most interesting superbowls ever.

Can you imagine how exciting that would be if the superbowl was being played in the midst of a raging blizzard? As long as the snow wasn't too intense I believe they would keep on playing.

Nevertheless, if this storm indeed does impact Detroit that day, tailgaters are going to be in for some fun! 8)
 
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