You want to see blizzard? Check this out...

I'm done with this thread until the models can be consistent... It's pretty much gone on the 18Z GFS. IWX did note that the GFS seems to have a sort of "climatology" (or bias) of being real consistent with a system, only for it to disappear around day 4-5, and then reappear when the wave starts to come on shore.
 
Originally posted by Laura Duchesne
Hey neighbour! Okay, let it snow in Stratford... but keep it out of Waterloo! :) I prefer this green weather....
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lol. At least KW has competent plow drivers... Ahh well just drivers in general. lol
 
Well, right now the GFS is in it's FOW stage, fish out of water. It's flopping just like a fish.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict 45" of snow and 85mph winds for Detroit.

Time will tell if I'm right...

:p
 
Sooo early and pointless to say anything, but I love that moisture tongue right over WV - followed by the freezing line plowing past with several inches of snow behind it. Lightning (at the least) followed by heavy snow the next day. I can't believe I used to get SDS in winter. What was I thinking?

Hopefully this will set up close enough to make a chase out of it less than 2-3 hours away from home.
 
Two words:

En

Sembles

Note VERY little agreement with the Great Lakes blizzard from the GFS ensembles. And nothing on the EC. And nothing on the 06Z GFS either. I'm thinking this hype based on a few model runs out of dozens that say "no" may come to bite a few ;>
 
Originally posted by rdale
Two words:

En

Sembles

Note VERY little agreement with the Great Lakes blizzard from the GFS ensembles. And nothing on the EC. And nothing on the 06Z GFS either. I'm thinking this hype based on a few model runs out of dozens that say "no" may come to bite a few ;>
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Ah... But even when there IS agreement, things don't usually occur. How many times this winter has the ensembles (at day 4/5) been in excellent agreement, only for them to be completely wrong?

If I see a storm system appear on more than 3 or 4 model runs, and more than one model, I give it at least SOME chance regardless of ensembles.

As of right now though, the system is nearly non-existant on the models...
 
"How many times this winter has the ensembles (at day 4/5) been in excellent agreement"

You have to add the other models though... I've seen GFS ensembles match up, but if the EC/GEM/etc say "no" it's still something I'd be hesitant to blow a horn for. If GFS ENS matches up well, and the other globals are also in the 'hood, it's usually a good bet something will happen.
 
I'm gonna bump this thread back up, because I still think something is going to happen. The GEM and NAM (both 00Z and 12Z runs) are still showing things west of the Apps. The GFS was weak a few runs ago (in respect to ANY development - coastal or not), but has been getting progressively stronger, which would support a further west track.

I think the "day 4-5 disappearing act" might be over.

Then again, the NAM hasn't been known to be correct -- could this be a first?
 
Im really hoping this morning's 84 hr NAM output valid 12Z Saturday will verify, with a 994 surface low over northern Georgia and the 500mb trough deepening into a negative tilt over the southern Apps. That scenario would probably lead to severe northern FL through NC with frozen precip from the cental Apps and points northward. Also, given that surface lows normally deepen when they leave the Mid Atlantic region, a 994mb system Saturday morning could become a major storm by the time it reaches the northeast.

Local NWS has mentioned a pattern change on the way, lasting at least a couple weeks, with deep troughing, NW flow aloft, and below normal temps in the eastern US. I think a change in the pattern (no more zonal flow with embedded SW's for a period) sounds reasonable. It is February and we really have not had much of a winter so far (at least in eastern NC). The Feb. 3-4 system may be the last one to do much at all in terms of strong convection or significant snows. So I'm crossing my fingers that the NAM is on target with this one. Last night's GFS also indicated a strong 995 mb surface low in the SE US - but displaced about 500 miles east of and reaching that intensity about 24 hours later than the NAM's solution.
 
Yeah, the GFS has been slowly trending westward and deeper with the upper level trough, but is still pretty far east. To tell you the truth, if all the models were in agreement at 84 hours, I'd be kind of nervous because that's usually when things DON'T happen.

Anyway, the 12Z UKMET is more along the lines of the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF looks really odd -- it has a weak low (1000MB) tracking through western lower MI... On the other hand, the 00Z ECMWF was more along the lines of the 12Z NAM.

The GEM is kind of in between... Much weaker, but still west of the Apps.

But, the fact that the NAM looks exactly like the GFS did about 6 runs ago is interesting.
 
"the 12Z ECMWF looks really odd -- it has a weak low (1000MB) tracking through western lower MI"

Are you looking at the right data? Today's the first run of the "new and improved" EC, maybe your site got messed up ;>

12Z Fri it has a 998 low near Pittsburgh, which it takes off into Canada by 12Z Sat, then shows a 997mb low southeast of NYC at 12Z Sunday with nothing at all over MI.

edit - the 12Z UKMET looks whacked with the low over MI, maybe that's what you pulled up? I never give the UK much weight in the first place...
 
Originally posted by rdale
"the 12Z ECMWF looks really odd -- it has a weak low (1000MB) tracking through western lower MI"

Are you looking at the right data? Today's the first run of the "new and improved" EC, maybe your site got messed up ;>

12Z Fri it has a 998 low near Pittsburgh, which it takes off into Canada by 12Z Sat, then shows a 997mb low southeast of NYC at 12Z Sunday with nothing at all over MI.

edit - the 12Z UKMET looks whacked with the low over MI, maybe that's what you pulled up? I never give the UK much weight in the first place...
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Yeah, it was the UKMET that I was looking at. The 18Z NAM has trended towards the GFS, making more confident in a coastal low. But with the upper level jet and shortwave still off the coast, I'll keep a little bit of skepticism.
 
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