• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

WINTER STORM FCST 12/04/07:MN,WI,IA,IL,MI,IN,OH

Joined
Feb 19, 2004
Messages
1,375
Location
Erie IL
Well, normally I wouldn't post a thread about a clipper system here on ST, but since it's fairly early in the season, and the clipper seems to be fairly intense, I'll start one up.

Well, many of us are just catching our breath after this past weekend's onslaught of winter weather. Including ice and snow, and strong winds, power outages etc. The brief respite is over as a pretty strong little clipper will zip on southeast out of Canada tonight and tomorrow and lay down a stripe of accumulating snow from MN to KY by tomorrow night.

Although moisture starved, the strong dynamic lift and strength of the baroclinic boundary should provide a focal point for heavy snow along a line from Fargo ND, down to Minneapolis MN, to Platteville WI, towards the NIU campus in Dekalb IL, and into central IN by tomorrow night. The latest models seem to boost QPF outputs and indicate the potential for greater than 5" of snow in the main band. Some isolated amounts up to 7" would be possible, assuming snow ratios are above 13-15:1. These amounts may seem fairly unimpressive, but considering they're being delivered from an Alberta Clipper type system originating in the NW flow regime they're relatively impressive.

It will be sort of interesting to watch as the system emerges out of Canada over the next 12 hours...
 
Winter Storm FCST

In the Upper-Midwest on Tuesday, expect a 50 mile-wide swath of 3-4 inch snowfall totals from Grand Forks ND, though Rochester MN, to Chicago; with lesser amounts falling north and south of this line. Closer to home, here are some specific forecasts for eastern IA:

Cedar Rapids:
Light snow will start at 5:00 PM CST. Expect 0.5 inch of accumulation before the precipitation ends shortly after midnight on Wednesday. Within Linn Co., the heaviest snowfall totals will be found in the northeastern corner of the county where as much as 1 inch of snow will fall.

Iowa City:
Light snow and sleet will start at 5:30 PM CST. Expect less then 0.5 inch of accumulation before the precipitation ends during the early morning hours Wednesday.

Marengo:
Snow flurries, light snow, or sleet will start at 6:00 PM CST. Expect little more then a dusting of accumulation.

Synopsis:
WV imagery showed assent associated with ULVL system translating through SASK, while light RTRNS were noted over NCNTRL ND although most of this precipitation was not reaching the ground as of 3Z. Ahead of this system at the SFC, a WF was already taking shape from NWRN ND into CNTRL IA. BIS, ABR, and MPX soundings all show healthy WAA in the H9 to H75 layer while the H85 WF was analyzed 100mi NE of the SFC FNT. A mid-level S/WV SHRTWV was also moving through IA although little sensible WX was associated with this feature besides weak WAA and a WSHFT line.

Discussion:
Primary FCST concern in ERN IA is timing and track of the precipitation as well as the nature of any mixed precipitation on the SRN edge of this clipper system. ULVL system now in along the CAN/US border will turn SE in ACYC flow and dive towards MN and IA on Tuesday. The latest MDLS have trended both weaker and slower with the evolution of the low as evolves over the Dakotas and moves to the SE during the afternoon hours. Additionally, a slightly more NLY track has been noted from 18Z though 06Z. The GFS appears to have the best handle on the details of the H5-H3 features as well as the SFC temps however the NAM was right on track with H925-H85 temperatures.

Between 20Z-02Z, strongest UVVS will be concentrated near the left-exit region of a 130kt H3 speed max near the WI/IA/MN border. This will be collocated with the STGST H8-H7 frontogenesis and isentropic lift in the 290K – 298K layer. This region should see snowfall totals in the 3-4 inch range based on PROGD QPFs of 0.4 inches, a -16C H6 isotherm, and a 12:1 ratio. Further S, in ECNTRL IA, snowfall totals will be much lighter with less QPF and with temperatures of 0C to -2C in the H9-H8 layer where sleet may mix with the snow. As is often this case with clipper systems in fast ULVL flow, rapid storm motion will hold down snowfall durations and totals.

- bill
[FONT=&quot]9:47 PM CST, 12/03/07[/FONT]
 
Midnight models confirm the above thinking. The NAM/WRF is notably slower than the GFS. The GFS looks a bit too quick, especially in saturating the column on the leading edge of the clipper. I think a blend of the two would be the way to go.

This clipper may put down more than 6" of snow anywhere along it's heaviest axis, which is very impressive for a clipper. The combination of it's intensisty and the relatively slower than normal speed of it's movement will allow for these higher amounts...
 
Thread: WINTER STORM FCST 12/04/07:MN,WI,IA,IL,MI,IN,OH

There is a snow advisory bordering my county (Blackhawk County) in east central Iowa, "my area" is expecting snow fall totals of 1 to 2 inches while JUST to my east/northeast in the snow advisory area snow amounts could range from 2 to 6 inches! Will be interesting to see if that heavier snow will respect my countie's border and stay to the east :D
 
Well, the clipper's ongoing across much of the midwest/cornbelt. Previous forecasts seem to be lining up pretty good. The heaviest snows seem to be falling along the axis from extreme southwest WI down towards Dekalb/NIU, and into east-central IL. Amounts are approaching 3" already in far northern IL near the WI border.

Still looks like a narrow 4-6" band will line up along the above axis, and extend into central IN by tomorrow morning.

This is a very interesting setup for the Chicagoland area of NE IL. As the surface low goes by, it will drag the winds around to the NE off the warmer waters of Lake Michigan. This should make for some lake-effect snow bands later on tonight that may prolong the snow event for Chicago. This will be very weak by lake-effect snow standards, but may allow for some additional accumulations on top of the system snow.
 
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