Winter Storm Dec 31st - Jan 2nd Plains and Great Lakes

[Chris Carter]

GFS has been very consistent bring out a storm into the middle of the nation for the New Year, timing and placement still up in the air, but its a potent system, a lot of moisture to work with. Someone in the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes is going to get a good 12 - 18" of snow once this is set and done if the GFS is correct in bringing out a closed low.

ECM is the outlier with this just bringing some energy in as a developing trough.

My gut tells me due to the lack of the snowpack over the central plains and the warm air surging north out of the gulf, my neck of the woods will see more rain or freezing rain out of this than snow and folks up north that got hit with up to 2 feet of snow in Nov will once again come out with a heavy dose of snow. Just my 2 cents though.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Just saw this today... With the jetstream still so far south I wonder if it will really drift northward like is expected. This has been an unusual La Nina thus far and it makes me wonder if the ridge will actually build in and maintain itself across the eastern US. The strength will also be a main factor on this possible system's movement south/east and its ability to tap into Gulf moisture.

When I see the ridge verify on Monday/Tuesday, then I will have growing confidence on forecasting a potential storm and it's track. Things have been to crazy this December...

Chip

 

[Lanny Dean]

Wondered when someone was going to jump on this(please see my FB post from yesterday)...as of last 12z runs it certainly looks like possible Bombogenesis! To me if this truly verifies, it's got major blizzard written all over.

 

[Michael Riedl]

Today's 12Z GFS definitely shows blizzard for parts of the Northern Plains, with a definite severe weather play as well.

 

[Chris Carter]

Figures, the Euro model hops on the idea of a closed off low taking the same track as the previous GFS runs, and the GFS now splits the energy into two pieces.

 

[Logan Karsten]

Looking at the 12Z suite of models seems to suggest a more split system instead of one big piece of energy. The GFS seems to give Iowa a whole host of forecasting issues with regards to precipitation type. However, I am still very skeptical of these solutions. With a fairly decent snow pack across the upper Midwest, I wonder if 546-552 thicknesses will really be able to make it all the way up to Wisconsin. Some of the GFS ensemble members want to keep colder air in place, which would lead to a more organized single piece of energy. Still to hard to pinpoint this one at this point.

 

[Chip Redmond]

GFS and ECMWF pretty much all agreeing of a strong low on New Years Day and with a very similar position/path. It appears that blizzard-like conditions will remain in the uppermost parts of MN and Canada. They are both progging around a 992-988mb low. The system will be able to tap into moisture from the Gulf and it could be a very wet day for much of the Miss Valley and Ohio Valley. The appears to be a slight chance of severe weather in the lower Miss Valley as front moves through but it should remain in the form of a squall line as there is strong forcing along the front (GFS is slightly hesitant however and hinting on the front lagging further south and stalling). However, timing isn't ideal for this development.

GEM takes the system slightly slower by about 12 hours. It places the ideal snowstorm conditions into all of MN and ND as well as eastern SD. It also has the cold front racing across the southern US and is timely more ideal for convective development.

All agree on warm air intusion as far north and west as Wisconsin. This looks to be a rain/snow event with not much risk of icing. GFS lays out a good pattern for ice storms in the wake of this system for the first week of Jan. Could be something to watch.

Chip

 

[Logan Karsten]

This is a very interesting situation. What's still up in the air is the exact evolution of this trough. The ECMWF still has one piece of energy going up the Missouri River valley, NW IA, and into MN. However, other models are starting to split this into two pieces of energy, with a secondary piece further east. For here in Central IA, I am waiting to see how the 00Z models role in. I am hoping for a shift of energy to the east even more.

 

[cstrunk]

Sounds like a strong winter storm moving into the plains and upper midwest.

NWS is forecasting a mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow in my current area (southwest Iowa). A quarter of an inch of ice may accumulate. As always, I'll just have to watch the radar to track the cold front to see how this threat progresses as a surface low is forecast to move from eastern Kansas through northern Missouri and into Iowa.

Anyone else have any comments? I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been any talk on this storm for a couple of days. Definitely has some New Year's Eve implications for many.

 

[Chris Carter]

Its actually going to be the first major snow for parts for West and Central Nebraska, a good size blizzard out that way, more of a sleet and ice mixture out here in Omaha but not much as it is looking that we will be dry slotted. 1 - 3" is our forecast, I am expecting less than an inch here, pretty much what we saw around Christmas.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Well in Arizona this was supposed to be a big snow event in the high country-and there was a lot of snow-but also a lot or rain and cold air--I am thinking ICE storms across Oklahoma ,etc, and snow only on north portion of storm or in wrap around after low passes. All it did out here was rain a lot despite cold temperatures.

 

[Justin McGinley]

Nws posted an forecast discussion update for the hastings nebraska warning area. Most are the models are showing the storm to be stronger and to go more south. Not going to upgrade now but later tonight there could be upgrades here is the link. http://forecast.weather.gov/product...ID&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

[Chris Carter]

i would actually like to know how the weather looked like up in Duluth today, they had a pretty great looking ice storm right over the area with some pretty consistent red signatures on the radar, I was wondering if anyone got some shots of the ice or the heavy snow on the western edge of the 32 degree line? Wouldn't be surprised if there was some thundersnow or sleet up there.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

How about 32 Degree Iced Lightning?



Luckily it didn't last a real long time but we have a light coating of ice. The 70 Degree day we had should help keep the roads good for the most part I think.