Which 2 weeks to chase?

[Chris Hayes]

I have 2 weeks available to go chasing this year. I'm currently signed up for vacation the first 2 full weeks of June. If I choose to, however, I can change it to the weeks of May 15, and 22nd. I need some advice on which of those 2 weeks go go chasing, mid may or early and mid June. If I had go in May I'm probably going to base myself in ICT. If we head out in June we'll probably head for Lincoln, Nebraska. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Chris, this is only an opinion by myself, but I think late May and early June will be the way to go this year.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'd do everything you can to avoid having to choose a date this early. Planning for May and June now is 100% guesswork. If you could, I wouldn't even start thinking about it until the first week of May. That's a stretch to expect employers to accomodate that, but it's the only way to protect your trip funds from going to the death ridge.

 

[brody_clifton]

Monday to Monday, if I had to bet I'd pick May 22 - June 5 for KS/OK/TX, and a week later for KS/NEB/SD/IA. Impossible to know though, just a gamble based on historical trends only.
I've been wondering the same thing recently, just in case I have to plan it father ahead than I am hoping to.
With the way things have been going in March and April, I wonder about a May 2-9 big event somewhere over the plains, just prior an unseasonably strong cold frontal passage? But who knows, hehe.

 

[bill mudd]

Chris

May 27,28,29,30 is busy holiday weekend, which means that getting a decent room can be a problem....

........so if you go then try to keep an eye out for where you might be lodging that night....as rooms book up earlier in the day - its happened to me many times and you will get stuck in a $150 room if you arent careful

.......unfortunately this is also a great storm potential weekend, usually

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I would go with May15 and 22 if you have to make a choice right now. I think statistically the last two weeks of May and the first week of June are the most active for tornadoes. The only reason I don't like June quite as much is because IMO the chase terrain gets worse the farther North you go. Chasing South Dakota is no picnic. If you run into an Indian reservation, it can ruin a chase. It can also be beautiful country and fairly good chase terrain, depending upon where you are. It's really just a crap shoot up there. Get out here early is my advice.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

In case you haven't seen it, here are some statistics done up on when to chase:
http://www.stormtrack.org/library/forecast/besttime.htm

I also agree that chase dates for 2+ weeks out cannot be planned with any certainty.

Tim

 

[Scott Olson]

How far in advance do you have to tell them? If two weeks notice is acceptable you could the GFS ensemble as a first guess as to whether it is going to be a productive time-period. If it's farther than that then use the link Tim posted and possibly look at some of the products CPC puts out. If you can stall your decision to the first week of May you could at least get some information on the general uncertainity of the pattern.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I can't imagine there will be a better two weeks this year than the last two weeks. I would be a little concerned about a death ridge developing during late May and early June this years. It is a little hard to believe that the plethora of severe weather we have experienced this spring will continue clear into June. Sorry to be such a pessimist. :mellow: