Where do you go to check the ensembles

[Cstok]

I check this site, but wasn't sure which one to look at for 500mb. There are a few to choose from, and I do not know the difference in each of the 500mb models.

For example there is a 510+522, 515+558, 522+564 etc... What do those represent?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/fcsts/ensframe.html

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The 510+552 chart shows the location of the 510dam and 522dam height lines on the 500mb surface. The others (515+558, etc) contour different heights of the 500mb surface.

You can also view ensembles at CDC's REFORECAST ENSEMBLE FORECAST PRODUCTS. It looks like a bad time for many plains chasers,with a deep east-coast trough persisting through mid-month. Thank goodness that's a long ways out -- plenty of time for the forecast to change.

 

[Cstok]

The 510+522 chart just shows the location of the 510dam and 522dam height line on the 500mb surface. The others (515+558, etc) just plot different heights of the 500mb surface.

You can also view ensembles at CDC's REFORECAST ENSEMBLE FORECAST PRODUCTS. It looks like a bad time for many plains chasers,with a deep east-coast trough persisting through mid-month. Thank goodness that's a long ways out -- plenty of time for the forecast to change.
[/b]

Thanks Jeff. I tried that link that you posted and it does not pull anything up. Also which would be the best to check on that link I provided? the 510+522 or other?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Hmm... The link works on my end. At any rate, the exact height to look at depends upon the situation and what you are looking for. On the average, 500mb heights increase to the south and decrease to the north... Depending upon the specific configuration, some features will show up better using some heights over other heights. For example, the on the 522+564 plot, the 564dam line shows a mean east-cost trough at f194 (6z 5-13-06). If you go to the 540+582 plot, this trough does not show up (the 582dam contour is too far south for the trough to show up, and hte 540dam line is too far north).

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Typically what I do when using the spaghetti plots is look at the operational GFS for the forecast hour in question and pick out the height contour which best represents the feature in question (e.g for the shortwave trof progged to overspread the Red River valley by 0Z Sunday, the 5700 meter/570 dekameter contour) and select the ensemble prog that shows either this contour or the one closest to it. The contour you choose will vary typically with different features due to different intensities of disturbances.

 

[Donald Van Dyke]

for 500 mb heights and MSLP maps of the GFS ensembles, you can also check out http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html