Western Pacific: Typhoon Megi

[Zack Hargrove]

I know that this has no direct impact on most of us here, but Typhoon Megi is shaping up to be a very strong storm that may wreak some major havoc in the Philippines around Sunday evening to Monday morning. Right now it is only at the status of what would be a Cat 2 over here, but it is forecast to become cat 4 strength with a direct hit at its MPI. After it crosses the island, the storm will be back out in favorable and open water and could possibly target the main Asian continent.

Its far across the globe, but it is shaping up to be one of the bigger tropical stories of the year if it does trend towards guidance. It will be interesting to see the news stories coming out of the Philippines on Monday and it should be interesting to see just how powerful Megi will get.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Megi is currently a super typhoon with 160 MPH winds.

It will slam into N Luzon (Philippines) without much weakening (unless internal dynamics / eyewall replacement causes fluctuations).

James Reynolds is heading there, wish him good luck.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Looks like a Grade-A cyclone. What a treat to chase such a fine specimen. The WPAC isn't my turf, so I'll enjoy this one from the sidelines. Good luck to anyone who goes after this one.

 

[James Reynolds]

I'm in the path of this and feeling quite queezy. Recon just found:

192kt FL, equates to 150kt ten min ave at the surface!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

192kt FL, equates to 150kt ten min ave at the surface!

That is just INSANE ... You're talking about "violent EF-5 tornado conditions" over a 20-40 mile wide swath of the Philippian Sea.

It appears the storm will make landfall from near Divilican Bay and north of there. There is (fortunately) little populations in this area (the NE coast of Luzon, the largest northernmost portion of the Philippines). A mountain range follows this coast as well.

I can imagine this mountain range will have "no trees" in an area the storm makes landfall afterwards :-O

As for JR, I believe he is in Aparri, but this area might be north of the hurricane forced wind envelope, which extends 60 miles to the north of the system.

It stinks that there is no access to the east coast (or is there?) ... I think those areas are accessible only by air, boat, or canoe ;-)

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I'm in the path of this and feeling quite queezy. Recon just found:

192kt FL, equates to 150kt ten min ave at the surface!

This is definitely one to handle with care.

Good luck with it!

 

[Nathan Edwards]

As much as I'd love to intercept a hurricane or typhoon one day, this is one storm I'd feel more than a little apprehensive about! Best of luck with the intercept, James.

 

[Marko Korosec]

No further comment needed. This is too impressive to imagine!

 

[Marcus Opitz]

No further comment needed. This is too impressive to imagine!

Indeed. I feel bad for those that remain in its path. I am sure there would be very rare and interesting data to be obtained in the eye at ground level if one could do it safely.

Interesting how the dry air that looked to be making a dent earlier today is nowhere to be seen.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Where is James Reynolds, exactly? Will he be in the core, I wonder?

I tried with Dean on the Yucatan-- a similarly intense 'cane (905 mb/150 kt)-- and I missed by a hair. I was in Chetumal, and the S eyewall passed just a few miles N of the city center. (It wasn't the kind of cyclone where I could be driving around to refine my position as it came ashore. ) The city got hammered by winds well over hurricane force despite missing the core.

Back on topic, I'd love to know where James is. I see Megi is coming ashore now. Good luck to him-- and a big congrats-- if he does get in the core. It just ain't easy with a really intense cyclone hitting a remote region.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

James last report from a few hours ago...

Jame is in Aparri which in near the North East Tip - there is a road that runs south but no options that will allow James to get near to the coast at the point of landfall.

"Landfall expected within next 2 hours. Strong winds and torrential rain hammering Aparri. Expecting total devastation in landfall zone about 50km south of here"

 

[Josh Morgerman]

James last report from a few hours ago...

Jame is in Aparri which in near the North East Tip - there is a road that runs south but no options that will allow James to get near to the coast at the point of landfall.

"Landfall expected within next 2 hours. Strong winds and torrential rain hammering Aparri. Expecting total devastation in landfall zone about 50km south of here"

OK, thanks. I knew he was in Aparri but didn't know he'd planned to ride out the cyclone there.

By the way, satellite images indicate landfall has occurred near Divilacan Bay.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

*** New World Record **

At 885Mb (To be confirmed) Megi is now the strongest landfalling Tropical Cyclone in history, anywhere in the world.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I see the core of the cyclone passed well S of Aparri. I'd be curious to hear from James why they didn't go further S, into the core region. I see there's a small, single-lane highway going S from Aparri-- parallel to the coast, approx. 25-30 mi inland-- with a string of towns along it. Perhaps it was safety concerns? Or perhaps it's not a good highway? I've never been to the Philippines, so I'm curious what the challenges are when chasing in Luzon-- especially since I'm toying with the idea of chasing in the WPAC next year.

Either way, I know it's very easy for people sitting at home using Google maps to plan out what looks like a perfect chase itinerary, without any understanding of the hundred and one hurdles that only chasers on the ground can see. Cyclone chasing is so much more complicated than it looks-- especially in remote regions of a foreign country.

 

[Marko Korosec]

I see the core of the cyclone passed well S of Aparri. I'd be curious to hear from James why they didn't go further S, into the core region. I see there's a small, single-lane highway going S from Aparri-- parallel to the coast, approx. 25-30 mi inland-- with a string of towns along it. Perhaps it was safety concerns? Or perhaps it's not a good highway? I've never been to the Philippines, so I'm curious what the challenges are when chasing in Luzon-- especially since I'm toying with the idea of chasing in the WPAC next year.

Either way, I know it's very easy for people sitting at home using Google maps to plan out what looks like a perfect chase itinerary, without any understanding of the hundred and one hurdles that only chasers on the ground can see. Cyclone chasing is so much more complicated than it looks-- especially in remote regions of a foreign country.

As far as I've read from his twitter posting, not going south of Aparri was because of safety reasons. Indeed there is a highway going straigth south, but I believe they got enough informations to decide not going closer to the core.

Apart from this, east of that N-S highway in a mountain chain and numerous landslides were likely to occur, maybe this was also the reason for not going.

I am looking forward to their news and reports. Here are a couple of image from Bradley Ambrose who was also there with James and 2 others:

http://www.facebook.com/#!/album.php?aid=297732&id=775432052

Judging only from the images, its obvious those areas would be hard to handle. This is not US or Canada, not Europe.