Western Pacific: Typhoon Megi

[Zack Hargrove]

*** New World Record **

At 885Mb (To be confirmed) Megi is now the strongest landfalling Tropical Cyclone in history, anywhere in the world.

Stuart,

Where did you get this information? The lowest recorded pressure I can find at landfall was at 914 mb. When Megi was at its strongest it didn't even get down to 885 mb. I can only find that it bottomed out at 890 mb max. Could you please share your data source?

Thanks,
Zack H

 

[Marko Korosec]

Looks like Megi is getting more and more organized in the latest scans. but can someone tell how cold are the cloud tops there to the south? Hard to judge from those colors, but could be close or even below -90°C?! Looks incredibly impressive!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This system has been disrupted by the high terrain / land interaction during passage over Luzon. Unlike what happens with most hurricanes in the Atlantic, this storm should RAPIDLY re-intensify because of the high heat content of the south China sea.

There is a high probability that this storm will strike China south of Hong Kong as a category 4 storm (at least).

Lets see if anyone who went to Aparri can "hop" to China for a second, and more direct intercept ;-)

The Western Pacific never disappoints!

 

[Boris Konon]

Stuart,

Where did you get this information? The lowest recorded pressure I can find at landfall was at 914 mb. When Megi was at its strongest it didn't even get down to 885 mb. I can only find that it bottomed out at 890 mb max. Could you please share your data source?

Thanks,
Zack H

The 885 mb came from a JMA bulletin, but I believe it was an estimate.

WTJP31 RJTD 180300
WARNING 180300.
WARNING VALID 190300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1013 MEGI (1013) 885 HPA
AT 17.4N 122.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 125 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 16.9N 120.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 16.5N 118.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Thing is JTWC indicated it had weakened to 145 kts by 18/03z. It had
peaked between 17/12-18z when it was 890 mb and was 160-165 kt. So
I don't think it is a record landfall.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Re: the landfall intensity... Dr. Jeff Masters says it was 914 mb/145 kt, as per the Navy Research Lab in Monterey:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1662

Given this, it would the strongest cyclone landfall anywhere in the world since Dean 2007 hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with an intensity of 905 mb/150 kt.

 

[James Reynolds]

I'm alive and well and in town of Tuguegarao. Rode out the storm in Aparri which was well north of the core. After my experience of chasing typhoon Parma last year (a cat 1 when it passed over me) where I was almost killed on a couple of occasions (electrocution / flash floods) I decided not to screw around and attempt to relocate into the core.

The infrastructure here is very fragile and prone to complete collapse even in tropical storm conditions.

I've been flat out covering this story for the media and I'm happy with the footage I've managed to shoot (despite not seeing typhoon force winds.) It's already been a historic storm and I'll never forget sitting in Aparri on Sunday night reading recon reports of sustained winds of 170kts - I actually felt dizzy.

Well chapter one is over. It now looks like S China coast is under serious threat, including my current hometown Hong Kong. I'm flying back there tomorrow and after a good night's sleep and a charge of the batteries will move off to cover the 2nd landfall of Megi.

More updates to come and video hopefully online this time tomorrow...

 

[Jim Edds]

I see the core of the cyclone passed well S of Aparri. I'd be curious to hear from James why they didn't go further S, into the core region. I see there's a small, single-lane highway going S from Aparri-- parallel to the coast, approx. 25-30 mi inland-- with a string of towns along it. Perhaps it was safety concerns? Or perhaps it's not a good highway? I've never been to the Philippines, so I'm curious what the challenges are when chasing in Luzon-- especially since I'm toying with the idea of chasing in the WPAC next year.

Either way, I know it's very easy for people sitting at home using Google maps to plan out what looks like a perfect chase itinerary, without any understanding of the hundred and one hurdles that only chasers on the ground can see. Cyclone chasing is so much more complicated than it looks-- especially in remote regions of a foreign country.

Hey Josh, I thought the same thing and what would I have done differently. Here are some thoughts I had about intercepting Megi.

I was in Aparri last year for typhoon Lupit. It's about 1.5 hr drive from the airport in Tuguegarao to Aparri on a good day. It's not an interstate road but rather - a country road along a river in a valley with mountains on your left and right. I hitched a ride to Aparri with some folks working for Phillip Morris as there are no car rentals available in Tuguegarao. The forecast track early on was just south of Aparri so you go there. It's a coast town and the wind would be coming off the water. The storm surge would be - well, very nasty there. People live in shacks, some without power and running water right smack on the shore.

During the night, the track changed but Megi was going more SW than WSW really. IF you could find someone to drive you to Tuguegarao in the middle of the night you still would have missed it because Tuguegarao was not south enough. On a rainy windy night that trip probably would have taken 3+ hrs. Then add on another 3 hours IF you knew where Megi was going to cross which was well south of Tuguegarao. South of Tuguegarao are small villages with little or no protection. So you ask yourself, do I want to be out in the open or in a Jeepney during a CAT 3 or worse?

Now you might think Divilacan on the east coast would be the place to be and it was if you wanted the eye but it's not accessible by land and even if it was you had to cross 30 miles of mountains. The best that my PAGASA (Weather Service in Philippines) contacts could do was Tuguegarao and they know the lay of the land and have their own vehicles. That's where they rode out the storm. I was armchair chasing this whole thing and the best I could do was get to Tuguegarao and I wouldn't feel too safe there. Most of the dwellings are shacks! Nothing worse than rolling into "town" with a monster storm bearing down on you and no safe place to be found. I've done that before and didn't like it one bit. As it was, Megi went well south of there.

Here is a link to some pics I took when I was in this area last year for typhoon Lupit: http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_lupit.htm

One thing nice about going to the Philippines is: you are on your own and can pretty much go anywhere you want. But some areas are very remote with little or no internet. Throw in a bust forecast track, night time, a monster storm and it's really really difficult to get to the sweet spot. Welcome to storm chasing in the Philippines!

 

[Jim Edds]

Good day all,



That is just INSANE ... You're talking about "violent EF-5 tornado conditions" over a 20-40 mile wide swath of the Philippian Sea.

It appears the storm will make landfall from near Divilican Bay and north of there. There is (fortunately) little populations in this area (the NE coast of Luzon, the largest northernmost portion of the Philippines). A mountain range follows this coast as well.

I can imagine this mountain range will have "no trees" in an area the storm makes landfall afterwards :-O

As for JR, I believe he is in Aparri, but this area might be north of the hurricane forced wind envelope, which extends 60 miles to the north of the system.

It stinks that there is no access to the east coast (or is there?) ... I think those areas are accessible only by air, boat, or canoe ;-)

Aparri is much further to the east than you have on your map Chris. Search "Philippines Map" on google and you can find it. The possible landfall you have turned out to be right on the money. Maybe you should work at JTWC !

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Aparri is much further to the east than you have on your map Chris. Search "Philippines Map" on google and you can find it. The possible landfall you have turned out to be right on the money. Maybe you should work at JTWC !

Thanks, Jim!

Yeah, it hit right on the money at Davilican Bay at near, or slightly past, peak intensity. Daytime landfall too.

I also adjusted the map as well.

Too bad it's so hard to chase there (where it came in).

I wonder if the entire mountainside there is missing trees ;-)

 

[James Reynolds]

Raw footage I shot of conditions in Aparri during landfall and of aftermath closer to where eyewall passed - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9tckfJrTnI