VORTEX2

[Ryan McGinnis]

Then at that point it's all subjective then, isn't it? So why does everyone flip out if someone has a different opinion on the matter, or doesn't support it at all?

This post is not directed at you personally, but the sentiments you express remind me of a book that is coming out soon:

http://www.amazon.com/Idiot-America-Stupidity-Became-Virtue/dp/0767926145

You see, the opinions aren't really that subjective. There is a long history of scientific research leading to advancements in knowledge. (See: Archimedes, Newton, Copernicus, Edison, Einstein, Pasteur, et. all, 400BCE to present). Vortex 2 is a scientific research mission with clear research goals and a proven track history for collecting data that leads to useful knowledge about storms. Clearly, it is useful. We'd still be riding around on horses and swapping smallpox if it weren't for research.

Is it twelve million dollars useful? I would argue yes, but I think a better argument would be: why do you care? It's not your twelve million dollars. Sure, some of it comes from the government, which comes from your taxes -- but it's a bit of a silly thing to get worked up about. Vortex 2 is taking up .000476 percent of the national budget. Or, to put it in perspective, if your name were Federal Government and you made 50,000 dollars a year, then proportionally Vortex 2 would be twenty four cents spread out over two years. We're talking about pocket change here. I think we can afford it. I would think chasers of all people would be excited by this. It's like the Pirate's Guild whining about how the Federal Government is dumping dumptrucks of cash into research on artificial limbs and parrot breeding. This is relevant to your interests.

Ultimately, though, no matter what your opinion is, I think what is frustrating some of the scientists who are reading this thread is the stubborn unwillingness to actually research anything about anything before hopping up on a soapbox and pretending they have something useful to contribute. If you've read Vortex 2's plan of operation or have interviewed V2 scientists and you feel that they're going about it wrong, then you may have something useful to contribute, especially if you have enough schooling or self education in atmospheric sciences to know what the hell you're talking about. Explain why and how they're going about it wrong. Explain what you think needs to be focused on, if anything. However, if you saw a clip about it on the Today Show and have perused a few Stormtrack threads, and are from that deciding that it's a waste of time, you don't have anything useful to contribute. It's not that your opinion is subjective, it's that it's uninformed. And you will probably be called out for it.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

You've got a strange definition of "flipping out" and I've got no bad blood here. If one is going to post to a discussion board, one should not be surprised (or threatened) by an ensuing discussion of the points presented.

The problem is that (as I like to say) "words mean things". Brandon's argument is that everything is "subjective". While this may be true in a lot of things, (let's say the beauty of a painting) I don't think it really applies here. I think it would be more accurate to say that the return on investment is not immediately quantifiable.

This is not the kind of science where you can have a control group to see what would have happened if we hadn't known this or that. I can't tell you, for example, how many people would have died in Greensburg, KS if we had saved all of the research money that went into the development of Doppler radar (or a National Weather Service, for that matter.) I can't tell you that a single additional life would have been lost, because we can't go back and run that scenario in the absence of the NWS or Doppler Radar or all the knowledge we now have about tornadogenesis and behavior.

Ignoring the cost of human life for a moment, what kind of price tag do you put on the advancement of knowledge? Experience of all kind tells us that there are practical benefits that come (down the road) from the advancement of knowledge - even knowledge that has no "practical" application on the immediate other side. It is not subjective... it is unquantifiable. Just don't confuse unquantifiable (at this moment) with worthless (or worth less).

Saying everything is "subjective" is like saying everything is "relative". It may be true, but it ultimately says nothing. Sort of like "end of discussion" only more so.

I know I quoted you on that reply, but I wasn't really referring to you as being one that has "flipped out" over someone not supporting or moving out of the way of Vortex 2, so I didn't mean to seem like I was calling you out specifically or anything. But, I would argue that past research and improvements made in the past are mutually exclusive from the current project at hand. For all we know, this thing could be a complete flop. What then would it take for someone to admit that perhaps it wasn't as good of an idea as originally thought? Yes, it is subjective. In addition, I don't know how many lives this project is going to help save in the future...the reason I say this is because, today, for as many severe weather events that we have through populated areas every year, the number of deaths are actually quite low, and many of those are most likely from people not taking the warnings seriously (or not getting them at all), which will continue regardless of how much we learn about severe weather. Then you have people who are killed by destructive tornadoes even when they are taking shelter. Sure, we can improve construction...but then you have people that can't afford it, etc, etc, etc...so we're reaching the point where I would not expect to see very noticeable improvements over time, and I actually think the job being done right now is fantastic considering that we are trying to do the impossible which is predict the future...but then again, that's just my opinion.

 

[Darren Addy]

I would think chasers of all people would be excited by this. It's like the Pirate's Guild whining about how the Federal Government is dumping dumptrucks of cash into research on artificial limbs and parrot breeding. This is relevant to your interests.

Sadly, piratesguild.com is already taken.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

In the scope of things, twelve million dollars is peanuts - not personally to you and I (it IS a lot of money)

How much does that mile of interstate road cost??

x scanner machines for the hospital.

A School that needs a building extension.

GFS super computer needs more RAM

Overall I am with V2 in principle - I actually hope that they do find some piece of minicule data that will lead to longer lead times.

For sure I may be held up around a storm - I will move if need be - my hotel my be booked out.

BUT - If my experances of the Discovery Channel & DOW/TIV are anything to go by - I will NOT move if I am in "your shot" ~ so TWC / media take note!

 

[Brandon Goforth]

This post is not directed at you personally, but the sentiments you express remind me of a book that is coming out soon:

http://www.amazon.com/Idiot-America-Stupidity-Became-Virtue/dp/0767926145

You see, the opinions aren't really that subjective. There is a long history of scientific research leading to advancements in knowledge. (See: Archimedes, Newton, Copernicus, Edison, Einstein, Pasteur, et. all, 400BCE to present). Vortex 2 is a scientific research mission with clear research goals and a proven track history for collecting data that leads to useful knowledge about storms. Clearly, it is useful. We'd still be riding around on horses and swapping smallpox if it weren't for research.

Is it twelve million dollars useful? I would argue yes, but I think a better argument would be: why do you care? It's not your twelve million dollars. Sure, some of it comes from the government, which comes from your taxes -- but it's a bit of a silly thing to get worked up about. Vortex 2 is taking up .000476 percent of the national budget. Or, to put it in perspective, if your name were Federal Government and you made 50,000 dollars a year, then proportionally Vortex 2 would be twenty four cents spread out over two years. We're talking about pocket change here. I think we can afford it. I would think chasers of all people would be excited by this. It's like the Pirate's Guild whining about how the Federal Government is dumping dumptrucks of cash into research on artificial limbs and parrot breeding. This is relevant to your interests.

Ultimately, though, no matter what your opinion is, I think what is frustrating some of the scientists who are reading this thread is the stubborn unwillingness to actually research anything about anything before hopping up on a soapbox and pretending they have something useful to contribute. If you've read Vortex 2's plan of operation or have interviewed V2 scientists and you feel that they're going about it wrong, then you may have something useful to contribute, especially if you have enough schooling or self education in atmospheric sciences to know what the hell you're talking about. Explain why and how they're going about it wrong. Explain what you think needs to be focused on, if anything. However, if you saw a clip about it on the Today Show and have perused a few Stormtrack threads, and are from that deciding that it's a waste of time, you don't have anything useful to contribute. It's not that your opinion is subjective, it's that it's uninformed. And you will probably be called out for it.

I'm not arguing whether or not the project is being conducted right or wrong by the researchers (as I'm sure they're doing a fantastic job), I'm arguing as to whether or not it should be taking place right now and $12 million being thrown at it with the state of the economy and the fact that we're getting extremely deep into debt, which very much affects my life and those around me. And heck yes I would hope that "we the people" care about where all of our tax money is going, no matter if it's $100 billion or $1 million, maybe one of our biggest problems today is that people don't care and that's why wasteful spending is out of control (but that's a whole other topic we won't get into). At some point, there is only so much that we are going to learn, and we aren't going to see these vast improvements every time we send a research team into the field (It reminds me of a certain song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejBpeci0o9c). The "researchers" have no reason to be frustrated at my remarks because it's not aimed at them or the job they're doing, it's aimed at the people who approved the project and dished the money out. But, even then, I'm not necessarily even saying that they are wrong, I'm simply questioning whether or not the benefits will outweigh the costs, and no one can prove it right or wrong because you can't base the success from the current project on the success of past projects. It doesn't work that way.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I'm not arguing whether or not the project is being conducted right or wrong by the researchers (as I'm sure they're doing a fantastic job), I'm arguing as to whether or not it should be taking place right now and $12 million being thrown at it with the state of the economy and the fact that we're getting extremely deep into debt, which very much affects my life and those around me.

Well, then okay -- your dig is against research in general. I think that's a bit shortsighted, given the long track history of research being an investment that pays off in spades. You definately wouldn't be chasing (or likely living) right now were it not for people who valued research more than you do. I mean bloodletting worked perfectly well at controlling consumption, so what the hell are people spending time and money looking into "germs" for, right? There's nothing else to learn. But then this kind of devolves into a more philisophical discussion that doesn't have much to do with V2.

I will say, though, that Americans spend enough on coffee-shop lattes each day to pay for 6 years of Vortex research. We spend enough on healthcare per hour to pay for 42 years of Vortex research. Some rich Brit blew an entire 3-years-worth of Vortex 2 budget to purchase a pickled cow. Somehow I doubt atmospheric research is the big metal ball that's dragging us into the deep.

 

[Darren Addy]

Excellent! Pickledcow.com is still available.

 

[Dan Dawson]

For one thing, I can think of a bunch of other financial pursuits our federal government embarks on that have a better claim to being wasteful than a basic scientific research project like Vortex 2 (no, I'm not going to give examples, depending on your politics you probably already are forming your own list in your mind). I agree that many people today simply don't care where our money is being spent, but seriously, I think that basic scientific research is probably the *worst* thing to target when considering whether some pursuit is wasteful or not. That is of course, my opinion, but one I feel is backed up by enormous evidence over our country's history: one of the main reasons we have managed to maintain our status as a "superpower" is because of our historic commitment to basic science, even if the immediate benefits are not obvious. I seriously pray we never lose that focus. Also Darren brings up an excellent point: what value do we place on simply advancing knowledge? I think we ignore "intangibles" like this at our peril.

I do know that the current V2 project is a much stripped down version of what it was originally envisioned to be. Many researchers have had to make many compromises along the way to be funded for this project, and some have been shut out altogether. Yes, it is always important to weigh the spending on Vortex 2 against other worthy scientific or social pursuits, but in the end, as has already been pointed out $12 million is a drop in the bucket compared to some of the funding for other science out there.

Oh, and you can indeed gauge the likelihood of success of a current project based on past similar projects, at least partially. V2 is not being conducted in a vacuum, after all: we have learned a lot about storm intercept strategies, etc. from the first VORTEX, and have homed in on certain outstanding issues that require more study. Not only that, but many of the same people who worked on the first project are back on the job for the second one, and these people have a proven research track record.

 

[Chris Nuttall]

I think everyone (on both sides of this argument) are getting worked up over nothing. As soon as the first post mentioned the number of V2 vehicles in the field, I should have known where this was going. This should have been as predictable as a lightbar thread.

People are naturally territorial. We're all here because we have an interest in weather. Some of us are hobbyists, but some of us do it for a living. With such a passion for something, it's easy to get defensive and feel threatened by something or someone new coming along. It seems like most people are heading into this with an already closed-mind and firm stance. That's all well and good, and I respect everyone's position. But what good does it do to get all worked up over a hypothetical event that hasn't and probably won't happen?

How many days of actual V2 operations have there been? How many of these "you're in my spot" encounters have actually occurred with non-V2 chasers? This is another example of why there is such a disconnect between the scientific/professional and general chase (for lack of a better term) communities. Everyone is too worried about what the other side "might do" in highly unlikely situations instead of just going about their business and exercising common sense.

Seriously, this thread is reminding me of all the stupid discussions that pop up from time-to-time about states "regulating" or "outlawing" storm chasing.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Now that the season is in flux, I think the actual mission of VORTEX2 can be revealed, and why they are so secretive. I thought I had seen those **radar** vehicles somewhere before, maybe Japan?

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Technology Advance in Tornado Forecasting

Perhaps we should step back and look at the technological advances in weather forecasting we have made in the last 10-20 years. Remember what it was like before we had Doppler radar?? Tornado forecasting was a hit-miss deal back then. And it still is today. But we have come a long way and our understanding of tornadic genesis is increasing.

One of the benefits of the Vortex2 project is a better understanding of the conditions that leads up to tornado development (wind shear, temp differences. dew point, RFD, etc).

Perhaps this will lead to the development of a new type of radar system that will take tornado forcasting a quantum leap ahead. This radar system will combine different radar readings, temperature and wind readings and project a storm having "tornado development" potential.

Someday, the NWS will be issuing "tornado development" warnings. They will detail the location of the storm, speed and direction, what moisture, hail and wind to expect and what areas will be affected. This could extend the lead warning time anywhere from one-half hour to one hour!

And I think it would be appropriate to name this new radar system "Vortex2" in honor of the brave men and women that risked their lives to help develop this new system.

Let's hope that Vortex2 catch a monster storm and gain a mountain of data for scientists to droll over for years to come!!

 

[Brandon Goforth]

Now that the season is in flux, I think the actual mission of VORTEX2 can be revealed, and why they are so secretive. I thought I had seen those **radar** vehicles somewhere before, maybe Japan?

You're right!! This operation is way more important than I ever thought!! LOL!!!!

 

[Verne Carlson]

Someday, the NWS will be issuing "tornado development" warnings. They will detail the location of the storm, speed and direction, what moisture, hail and wind to expect and what areas will be affected. This could extend the lead warning time anywhere from one-half hour to one hour!

A one hour lead time has been shown to actually be a bad thing. People would have time to start packing their cars with valuables, family photos, prized possessions, etc and actually put themselves in more danger than if they had just 20 minutes to get in the basement. I think the arguement that we need more research to increase warning times only works up to a point. After that you are giving people too much time and making things worse.

 

[Matt Hughes]

Now that the season is in flux, I think the actual mission of VORTEX2 can be revealed, and why they are so secretive. I thought I had seen those **radar** vehicles somewhere before, maybe Japan?

That is hilarious Warren!!! And the disclaimer is perfect! If anybody sees the Men In Black dropping a probe then let us all know.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I do know that the current V2 project is a much stripped down version of what it was originally envisioned to be. Many researchers have had to make many compromises along the way to be funded for this project, and some have been shut out altogether.

This sounds like every science project these days. Just imagine what could be discovered if science was actually funded. In astronomy this is called descoping.