Upcoming pattern looks very quiet

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Aug 19, 2005
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The long-range pattern is looking very bad for any sort of severe convection over the central U.S. after today's system and another event Tuesday in the eastern chase area of the OH/TN valleys. The PNA and NAO indices will conspire to produce a long-lived strong eastern NOAM trough with frequent cold incursions. Looks like the period until at least mid April will be sans chasing. Also, here in the SE I am worried about a late-season freeze, which would be bad since we already have a lot of Spring vegetables coming up :mad:
 
Keep an eye toward mid-month and after though. A lot of big outbreaks in this nation's history come after such a pattern, as the storm track "reloads". In fact, several model runs have had the overall idea of a screaming Pacific jet, with a straight west-to-east shot across the Pacific Ocean starting around or just after April 15th.
 
Better now than later! GFS shows at least a couple of hard freezes here with snow possible later next week.
 
Yeah, things tend to cycle. We'll have an active period and then mother nature "resets" and we have a down period, followed by more. It can't be outbreak after outbreak the entire spring... we need time to work up some money and repair all the things that didn't work during 2007's first go around.
 
After a quick appointment with the tarrot card reader and a glance into the crystal ball, it looks as though we will transition back to an active pattern around the 14th 15th or 16th of April.. Its now time to study for finals so i can chase with a clean conscience the last half of April... All in all i think that the first part of the season has gone very well, but im ready for some slow moving, DL, high instability, with a sufficently capped ernviroment, type of systems... Time to hibernate...
Later
 
Better now than later into April and May. Looks like there is some strong suggestion of something major in the April 13-15th timeframe...and then another deep trough towards the April 21st-23rd timeframe. Hopefully the Gulf will be loaded and ready ahead of this system. 'Tis the season for Arkansas to get real busy if climatology holds true.
 
Should give me some time to send one of my lenses and perhaps the camera itself to the cleaners - got a lot of Texas Panhandle red dirt in it back on Feb. 24 and I still haven't taken care of it.
 
There is what looks to be hope around Day 10 on the GFS, as a big trough appears to develop out west and looks to begin advancing into the Rockies. Of course it's the last frame of the 10-day loop,so much will probably change.

Seems we always get a 10-14 day ridge out in almost every season, and after last year, I'd just as soon get it out of the way in early April. Speaking of quiet early Aprils, that reminds me of 2004.
 
It looks like on the GFS a more active pattern will resume starting April 13. A strong 997MB low ejects into the S Plains. Decent 500mb winds and moisture will be in place across S Ok and most of Texas. I'm concerned about the amount of CAPE though. But who am I kidding it's ten days out. I might as well not look again till the morning of the event. :D Anyway I also have a hunch something bad may happen since it will by Friday the 13th.
 
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Friday the 13th lol, sounds like a cap bust date to me. These "transition" type shortwaves always seem to be a toss up after a longwave trough in the east. 850 winds are gonna be northerly for a long period of time with cold air in place across the eastern 1/2 of the US, which means moisture will be shunted well into the gulf. How far south fronts push into the gulf, and the trajectory upcoming winds, should they take more of a western route up the mexican plateau, will really shed light on how deep the low level moisture will be.

Basically, my thoughts are it might take several southerly flow days, and possibly a couple of progressive shortwaves to move through before the good moisture can return north to the southern plains. I am just trying to accept the fact some of the models have winter precip progged for 4/7-4/9 across OK and KS!
 
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