TS 06L ( Tropical Storm Fay)

She is definitely wobbly, but there's a northerly component in that movement. It looks like Fay is gonna pop out somewhere around Sebastian. It would certainly be weird to be there and get hit by a tropical system like this from behind; with the winds all backwards compared to a traditional hit from a storm off the Atlantic.
 
richhorodner said:
Midnight here in Vero Beach. Center of Fay is 7 miles wnw of my house. I guess I am now in the DRYWALL.

Just to say I intercepted, I got into my chase vehicle (old pair of Converse high-tops) and ran up to the corner. Pressure here was 1000 mb, exactly for 6 hrs; then dropped to a whopping 998 mb, right now. Winds are a punishing 27, with gusts once in a while every hour since noon in the 45-50 mph range in rain zones. Fourteen palm fronds are reported down in the county.

I thought about driving the 11 miles north to Sebastian to get the exact center; but decided against it: it is dark outside and it is raining a little.
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Rich,
This is another big time storm to add to the resume. This is better than the backyard chase. This one was on the front corner of the yard. Whoo Hoo.
 
Fascinating! There's a tight remnant circulation representing the center within the south wall of the broader "eye". It appears to have just crossed I-95 and should cross the coast near Grant within a half hour.
 
Eye definitely moved right over the Melbourne International Airport per NWS obs:

2002:53SW 92.50 Rain Fog/MistBKN006 OVC0107774

29.34993.60.04

2001:53E 21 G 327.00Overcast and BreezyOVC0087774 797629.36994.3

0.81

EDIT: Formatted kind of weird.. at 1:53am EDT the winds were E @ 21 gusting to 32. At 2:53am EDT: SW 9, 993.6mb.
 
Good morning!!
Wanted to hear thoughts regarding the 4 km SPC WRF/NMM model. Both the 11Z and 12Z forecast position looks dead on and it should be noted that this model forecasts Fay to intensify by late today and especially tonight and remain stalled just offshore due east of Melbourne/Cape Canaveral. Thoughts on this model would be welcome. During Dolly...this particular model did very well forecasting the ramp up before landfall.
 
Given model history on this storm - it's apparent that no single model has any idea of the path / intensity / etc.
 
Basically the only thing that is for sure, is that the area around Melbourne, Florida, will be and have been getting record rainfall. I went to bed at 330 AM and from that time to now it seems the center of circulation has moved 25 miles. The center for the most part is over the Atlantic so it is possible we may see a bit of strengthening.
 
re:
--
Basically the only thing that is for sure, is that the area around Melbourne, Florida, will be and have been getting record rainfall.
---
Yes, just today a rain gauge not far (2 miles at most) S. from my location in Melbourne registered over 14.72 inches with a bit over 7 yesterday.
There are estimates that there will be 30+ inches for storm totals from this one.
Here's the weather station link:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLMELBO13
 
Good evening,

Storm just NE of cape canaveral is completely stationary. No motion whatsoever.

I am not making any more predictions. If the storm remains stalled, the storm will continue strengthening, maybe possibly becoming a hurricane (less likely). If it begins to move to the west (more likely), the storm will re-landfall near St Augustine as a tropical storm.
 
I'm no tropical expert by any means - what's the history of a stalled TS turning into a hurricane? Wouldn't the churned water remove that possibility?
 
The more powerful the storm the larger the waves and the larger the magnitude of the cold water upwelling. Generally TSs dont upwell that much. Not enough to prevent a TS from becoming a low end cane. Way worse for Fay now is being partly on land.
 
rdale said:
I'm no tropical expert by any means - what's the history of a stalled TS turning into a hurricane? Wouldn't the churned water remove that possibility?
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I would never say it would "remove that possibility" because it can and has happened. It's really a relative issue depending on what the water temperatures are. The problem is upwelling. Obviously, the longer the water is churned/upwelled, the "cooler" the surface water temperatures will become. A T.S. that comes across 85 degree water and stalls can still strengthen into a hurricane if the upwelled water drops the SST to 80, for instance.

In fact, I am not so sure it isn't happening now. Doppler radar low level scans are showing BV1 winds of over 71 knots. IMO, it is either a CAT 1 now or VERY close to being one. I would have to believe it is CAT 1 and would not be surprised to see an upgrade at 11pm.

EDIT: 11pm advisory is still at 60mph...which is too low IMO.
 
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Chasers in the field.

Mark Suddith is with a couple of guys from Internet Partnership Radio (www.ipr365.com for live coverage). The highest wind measured so far was 56 mph about 23:15 near Ormond By the Sea (Daytona Beach area).
 
I think everyone has been too mesmerized by Fay's antics to post. Anyway in the last few hours it looks to have picked up speed toward about 265 and a semblance of an eye again. It's just southeast of Gainsville and on its present course and speed should reach the coast somewhere south of Cross City in four hours or so. The upper venting of the storm continues to be excellent. If it manages to get over enough open water it's hard to see how it won't be in line for significant intensification.
 
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