TS 06L ( Tropical Storm Fay)

It looks quite a bit like Tropical Storm Erin did over OK last year. But I thought the NHC doesn't believe storms can strengthen over land? </sarcasm> Still a little frustrated that the NHC didn't upgrade Erin to TS strength when it rapidly re-organized and re-intensified over OK last year. But, I digress... Sure enough, Fay looks better than it ever has, despite having been over land for more than several hours. Only a handful of times have I ever seen an eye DEVELOP after the storm has made landfall. Pretty intriguing!

I don't know where to put this, so I'll put it here --> http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=11768&from=hp_video_2 ... It's a video of a kite-surfer being taken to task by Fay. My question: why didn't he let go of the kite? I'm not in a location where I can listen to the audio, so maybe they explain it.
 
I was chatting with R. Horodner, and--not to speak for him--but he indicated the strengthening was due to the upper-level winds that were so favorable for the development

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Snyder View Post
But I thought the NHC doesn't believe storms can strengthen over land?
The strengthening must be a result of its location over the warm waters of Lake Okeechobee.
 
South florida has the Everglades and lake Okechobee, in addition to being surrounded on three sides. So its not that surprising when storms dont weaken much there. It is a bit surprising that this one not only isnt weakening at all but improved its structure a little even.

Jeff, windsurfers and kitesurfers are physically attached to their sail or kite by means of a harness.. Its impossible to hold on with your arms in any kind of fun winds for more than a few minutes. This is especially dangerous for kitesurfers, fatalities are unfortunatly somewhat common when a gust throws guys onshore like this. Kitesurfing rigs generally have a quick release to let the kite go in an emergency. Sometimes it jams, so prudent sailors carry a knife to cut the lines like a divers knife. Sometimes it just doesnt work. They dont have much time and their first reaction is often to try and save the expensive kite.
 
Good day all,

I wrapped up chasing this "Fay" thing early this morning and noticed the center passing over. First it was rain filled (drizzle with LV winds), then as it moved north, moonlight began peeking through it along with twilight of the pre-sunrise.

I was rather impressed the eye forming over me while OVER land. I also measured the pressure befor and after and a 2 MB drop was noted (989 to 987 MB).

I finished the chase (pictures will be posted later), took a nap, then had to go into work at my office (late). I am wondering if anyone (who is chasing Fay) is looking at blue sky through that eye? Or it it just rain-free and not actually cloud-free?

I found the eye formation of Fay very non-intuituve (Like Erin, over LAND?).
 
Radar continues to indicate a northest or NNE motion of the well defined eye. Im still surprised to see the eye not only form over land but persist.
 
How unprecedented is this exactly, to have a truelly tropical system intensify while entirely over land? I dont remember any. I know Erin intensified but from what I remember that was a hybrid storm and had plenty of mid-latitude characteristics.

Fay has formed an eye, increased its outflow and its symmetry. It has maintained these now for about 12 hours, all over land. Plenty of storms have intensified right up to the point of landfall, and some storms have maintained their strength pretty well while quickly crossing south florida. But this?

To offset its loss of fuel, I think that only a massive increase in upper level divergence could compensate. Mr. Beven, if you are around and read this I would love to hear your opinion on this.
 
This isn't as unusual as people think. In the last 10-15 years, I can think of a few storms that have gained strength or redeveloped while over land. Erin not included in that since it had other factors that drove the quick reintensification. I remember a storm that did this over the Carolinas back in the 90s, can't remember the name. Explanation then was the amount of rain that had fallen made the surface environment tropical enough that it helped to fuel the storm. Probably nothing all that different here.

Take a flat piece of land, dump some water on it, get a nice warm and humid air mass going...it's almost like being over water.
 
Good day all,

Here are some pictures out of the landfall area in SW Florida during the pre-dawn hours...

fayrain.jpg


Above: Blinding rains in the convective bands around Fay's core with 60-MPH+ winds.

faysurg1.jpg


Above: Torrent of rising waters in Everglades City, FL right after landfall with 60-MPH on-shore winds. The Gulf of Mexico is a mile or so away.

fayscar.jpg


Above: Usually there are no hotels during tropical storm / hurricane chasing. Sleeping in the car to catch up on sleep helps.

fayeye2.jpg


Above: This is a time-esposure of the pre-dawn view inside the storm's eye, which actually got BETTER organized over land, illiminated by twilight / moonlight. Calm winds here (northeast of Naples, FL).

faybp.jpg


Above: 987 MB measured inside storm center.

faytcms.jpg


One of several TCMS's (Tropical Cyclone Mini-Supercells) encountered, some tornado-warned. Note the RFD clear-slot!
 
Nice. And now there may be another opportunity to chase, up by JAX.

That depends on how erratic Fay wants to be. Center seems nearly stationary on radar lately. Computer models often do not handle these weak steering current events well.
 
Weather channel reported from Dr. Steve Lyons that the tightening of the Fay system was a result of upper level ventilation--effective outflow. I didn't quite get the relationship between the outflow and the trough he explained. I'm sure someone else can clarify that here.
 
Good evening,

Just ran a radar loop from MLB and the center took a jog DUE EAST for the past few scans!

Fay is one forecasting challenge to say the least ... I will call her the "counter-intuitive" storm!
 
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