TS 06L ( Tropical Storm Fay)

It does appear to be wobbling more west....if that trend continues Alabama and Mississippi better watch out
 
Looking at the latest IR satellite loop, it appears that the center of circulation has redeveloped to the south and west over the last few hours - a significant flare up of convection is occurring around what appears to be an rough precursor to an eye wall structure centered approximately a hundred or so miles west/southwest of the 8 p.m. advisory position. It also appears that the storm overall has made a definite westward jog in its track. This may just be a temporary wobble, and the storm could easily resume it's W/NW track at any time, but if it continues for any extended period of time, Fay's core will spend a considerable amount greater time over open water with less interference from Cuba, and therefore have a much greater opportunity for significant intensification.

Is it just me, or is Fay giving off a very deja vu feeling of Charley back in '04?
 
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Tropical Storm Fay Update Sunday 08:00am BST
Summary
Chance of Intercept 1 out of 5 (Low)
Discussion
There are two questions that we need to answer before we attempt an intercept of Fay?
1) Where will Fay make landfall and can we get there in time?
2) What strength will Fay be at landfall?

Right now Fay is a low end Tropical Storm with wind speeds of just 45 mph. The center of Fay is located just south of Cuba over open water but the edges of Fay are over land. Fay has strengthened a little bit over the last 12 hours with central pressure dropping 5mb and some improvement being noted in convection on I.R. satellite. If the center of Fay can remain over water, south of Cuba for some time strengthening is predicted but no more than a low end CAT1. hurricane at the best.

The eventual forecast Track for Fay is critical too much time over land means a low end storm – over water then the potential for a strong hurricane exists. Right now current model guidance favors a more Easterly track over land – which Fay not reaching more than CAT1 strength.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Models again favor a central Florida landfall – again not good both for timing (too soon) as well as land interactions.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs1.png

We can be in position Tuesday – but by this time Fay will be coming inland over Florida.

** All the above can change rapidly IF Fay continues on a Easterly course which would mean landfall Thursday / Friday on the north gulf coast as a strong hurricane – right now the models don’t suggest this.
 
That radar sure shows something that looks like a circulation center. But, crikey, the IR loop last refreshed at 7:40Z looks like the center is significantly south of the coast and extrapolates well from the 3:00Z NHC position assuming a course just north of west. If the radar is right then Fay is starting its turn pretty aggressively; otherwise it looks to clear south of Punta del Ingles and have a pretty good look at high-heat open water for a day or so.
 
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Um, not a barn-wrecker but still very much there I think. Finally! IMO Fay has a visible low-level center, which you can also deduce from the Cuba radar. It's really clipping along at 285 or so some 80 miles south-southeast of Cienfuegos(?). Most all the deep convection has so far been to the north through east, but it seems to be getting its act together a little lately. Landfall around the Bay of Pigs and to sea again just east of Havana? The history shows that it did indeed clip Punta del Ingles or just south.
 
It should be noted that there has been a sudden Western pull to a lot of the models - prob due to Fay trending more West than North right now as forecast - also there are again signs that convection is starting to fire .... Fay is not done yet..
 
Wow! What an interesting system to track and a pain in the &^% for the TPC. One would think, by looking at the IR and visible loops, that Fey is moving or wobbling slightly north of the current track, so the fun and games continue.

The latest model consensus now shifts Fay to the west, with an average landfall location of around Pensacola/Destin, FL. The intensity models are still in the low grade intensity level.

Warren
 
... It looks to me like Fay has spun up and as it did, coupled more to the higher level winds as the old low level circulation departed west with the trades. So, lo and behold, it seems to have resolved on more moderate movement on a 320 or so heading. Back to Plan #1 and soon to make landfall around Cienfuegos.

Cuban radar site: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.as...ADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif
 
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Looking on GRlevel3 at the Key west Site, the center is visible and has turned more to the right. [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]At 12:39 eastern time. The center is located about 22.0M 80.2W Moving at 337 at 17kts. At that distance, the scan is over 29,000ft.[/FONT]
 
What the... Just watching the radar from Cuba and the storm has shot to the north now.
 
Yeah, this storm took a hard right... Looks like the folks in the keys could wake up with a surprise in the AM.

Based off of Pico San Juan, Cuba and Key West, FL Radars, the center is indeed tracking much more north now, infact it's outside the cone from the 11 pm edt advisory already.

GFS ensemble is all over the place on this one, indicating low predictability.

The center now appears to be way north (60-80miles?) of many of the 00z initialized positions from the guidance models.
 
Looks like the place to be will be the Keys, although who knows what Fay will be after crossing Cuba. Looks like a non-daylight falling cyclone regardless if the current track and speed are maintained or even shifts some. Would be even more interesting if it scoots over the southern tip of Florida and heads back into the Atlantic then up the east coast.

Warren
 
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