TS 06L ( Tropical Storm Fay)

So much for a Tampa intercept... WTF is up with the 2AM NHC update. Are we missing something because the radar out of Cuba on two different radar sites shows the center is over land and heading north. It's even showing up on the Keywest long range. Not wanting to bash anyones forecast at NHC but it the eye tilted that much where the long range picks it up over the center of Cuba and the surface center is not even on land?
 
TS Fay does not look that inpressive on radar to me. I am thinking mostly a rain producer but I am no expert so what do you guys think? Does Fay have a chance of becoming a Hurricane or not?
 
Yes, the storm has definitely accelerated. Last night the NHC forecast had the storm making landfall on the southern Cuba coast at 8 am, presumably somewhere inland in Cuba at 11 am. However it's clearly a lot further north, somewhere southeast of Key West. The track also appears to be significantly east of yesterday's forecast. It would be interesting to know how/why there's been such a change.

Tim
 
A few of the models, including the NAM and GFS forecast Fay to cross the FL peninsula into the western Atlantic for a couple days, then loop back across FL. She's keeping us guessing. It's certainly not unprecedented.
 
Since this is somewhat of a significant event I figure I would post the METAR collective from Key West before it perishes. It's interesting that the winds never got particularly strong, and slacks off for about an hour as the eye approaches (note pressures still falling).

METAR KEYW 181553Z AUTO 06018KT 3SM -RA BR FEW010 SCT016 OVC023 25/24 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 05029/1516 SLP086 P0023 T02500239 TSNO
SPECI KEYW 181557Z AUTO 06025G34KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT013 BKN018 OVC023 25/24 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 06034/1557 P0002 TSNO
SPECI KEYW 181603Z AUTO 05023G34KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN011 BKN016 OVC023 24/23 A2978 RMK AO2 PK WND 06034/1557 P0008
SPECI KEYW 181614Z AUTO 04018G29KT 3SM RA BR BKN016 BKN024 OVC047 24/23 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 06034/1557 P0015 TSNO
SPECI KEYW 181625Z AUTO 04022G30KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN017 OVC047 24/23 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 06034/1557 P0018 TSNO
SPECI KEYW 181637Z AUTO 03025G30KT 2SM +RA BR FEW008 BKN019 OVC030 25/24 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 06034/1557 PRESFR P0023 TSNO
SPECI KEYW 181645Z AUTO 03030G38KT 3SM -RA BR FEW008 BKN012 OVC017 24/23 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 03038/1644 PRESFR P0025 TSNO
METAR KEYW 181653Z AUTO 04030G41KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC012 25/24 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 04041/1652 PRESFR SLP062 P0025 T02500239
SPECI KEYW 181701Z AUTO 03027G41KT 1SM +RA BR FEW006 OVC010 24/24 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 03038/1657 P0005
SPECI KEYW 181705Z AUTO 03030G38KT 1/2SM +RA FG BKN007 OVC012 24/24 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 03038/1657 PRESFR P0010
SPECI KEYW 181726Z AUTO 05025G39KT 1 1/2SM RA BR SCT006 OVC010 25/24 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 04039/1723 P0048
SPECI KEYW 181734Z AUTO 03031G36KT 2SM RA BR FEW004 OVC010 25/24 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 04039/1723 LTG DSNT E P0049
SPECI KEYW 181741Z AUTO 02027G38KT 1SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN012 OVC019 24/24 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 04039/1723 LTG DSNT E P0055
SPECI KEYW 181747Z AUTO 03029G35KT 3/4SM +RA BR FEW006 BKN009 OVC013 25/24 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 04039/1723 LTG DSNT E CIG 008V011 PRESFR P0060
METAR KEYW 181753Z AUTO 02029G44KT 1/2SM +RA FG BKN008 OVC013 25/24 A2964 RMK AO2 PK WND 01044/1753 LTG DSNT NE AND E PRESFR SLP038 P0074 60124 T02500244 10267 20239 58061
SPECI KEYW 181823Z AUTO 03023G31KT 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR BKN006 BKN013 OVC019 25/24 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1809 LTG DSNT N-E TSB17 PRESFR P0081
SPECI KEYW 181829Z AUTO 04018G31KT 1 3/4SM VCTS RA BR SCT006 BKN013 OVC022 25/24 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1809 LTG DSNT N AND NE TSB17 P0084
SPECI KEYW 181832Z AUTO 03016KT 2SM +RA BR SCT006 BKN014 OVC022 25/24 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1809 LTG DSNT N AND NE TSB17E32 P0085
SPECI KEYW 181834Z AUTO 03015KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT006 SCT011 OVC022 25/24 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1809 LTG DSNT N-E TSB17E32 P0086
METAR KEYW 181853Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR BKN011 BKN018 OVC025 25/24 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1809 LTG DSNT NW-NE TSB17E32 PRESFR SLP013 P0110 T02500244
SPECI KEYW 181859Z AUTO 04005KT 3SM RA BR BKN011 BKN017 OVC024 26/24 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND NW P0001
SPECI KEYW 181911Z AUTO 11012G18KT 10SM -RA FEW008 SCT013 BKN018 26/24 A2955 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND NW P0002
SPECI KEYW 181918Z AUTO 12017G21KT 10SM -RA FEW011 BKN034 OVC042 26/23 A2955 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1904 LTG DSNT W-N PRESFR P0002[SIZE=-1]
METAR KEYW 181953Z AUTO 10006KT 10SM FEW016 SCT024 BKN033 27/25 A2951 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1904 LTG DSNT E AND NW RAE49 SLP993 P0003 T02670250
Click to expand...
[/SIZE]
 
Good day all,

Leaving office here in a few and gearing up for chase in SW florida into Tuesday morning. I am expecting a category 1 hurricane. Key west ATTM went to light winds and drizzle (circulation center).
 
Fay does not look very good on the latest radar image. It is hard to find the center and it appears to be ingesting a lot of dry air on the southern side. This dry air combined with some weak wind shear should keep Fay from strengthening much at all. I do not expect it to be much more than a very minimal hurricane if that at all.

The center of Fay appears to be about 55 miles almost due south of Naples. I don't think the center will move much more to the west, so the furthest north Fay should make landfall is Naples. Good luck to anyone chasing. :)
 
Good evening,

On location in Marco Island, FL with winds east around 50 MPH, heavy rains, and just measured 998 MB. Definitely tropical storm conditions.

Update: Pressure of 987 MB measured in center of Fay with calm (LV winds) between Everglades City and Marco Island at 5:30 AM EDT.

Storm surge came into Everglades City and flooded the town in about 10 minutes just before 6 AM. Most roads in there under several feet of water.
 
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Fay's radar presentation this morning looks better than it ever has, despite being over land. Pretty tight circulation with an eye.
 
cdcollura said:
Good evening,

On location in Marco Island, FL with winds east around 50 MPH, heavy rains, and just measured 998 MB. Definitely tropical storm conditions.

Update: Pressure of 987 MB measured in center of Fay with calm (LV winds) between Everglades City and Marco Island at 5:30 AM EDT.

Storm surge came into Everglades City and flooded the town in about 10 minutes just before 6 AM. Most roads in there under several feet of water.
Click to expand...

Any indication of tree damage to suggest winds might have been stronger than 60 mph? It looks like eyewall did not really come together until after landfall.
 
11:30am Eastern from Jax, FL

Looks like Fay is becoming the strangest storm I have ever seen. It certainly appears that it could exit into the western Atlantic Wed, strengthen, and come back at Jax, FL on Thursday.

And since last week, Jax has had major forecast changes. Standby, and in my case, tie down everything.
 
Add to the strangeness that this storm strengthened while over land to sustained 65 from 60. tornado warning for Brevard county--going to go take a look.

From 1 pm.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER
FLORIDA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR
WITH A GUST OF 78 MPH...125 KM/HR WAS MEASURED IN MOORE HAVEN.
 
Jason Harris said:
Add to the strangeness that this storm strengthened while over land to sustained 65 from 60.
Click to expand...

Beat me to the punch. It looks like the models are slowly beginning to agree to a second landfall. Of course the history of this storm suggests it has a mind of its own. As soon as the models converge, watch out for a surprise ;)
 
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