J Kinkaid
Last edited by a moderator:
J Kinkaid
Code orange baby !!! I really don't like what the HWRF and GFDL are showing .
cdcollura
EF5
Jason Foster
But apparently the dolphins love it. I hear a few people talking (especially from NJ) that the dolphins were swimming in the high surf. I tried to see if I could see any while in the Hurricane Hunter plane, but we were too high (and may have been too far north).
J Kinkaid
This isn't a fish storm
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Yeah ... I see that.
I guess we'll have to watch it and see what happens.
The pattern this year is 3 things (negative) for tropical development so far: The SAL (dry Saharan Air Layer), troughs (recurving storms only over open ocean), and shear (yeah - when and where you DONT want it).
During any El Nino year (this year thewre IS a weak El Nino), we get these "tough" times for tropical systems. 2006 and 2007 was the SAME scenario.
If this one does go through the Caribbean, we have to be careful of any places we chase (avoid another Jamiaca Mugging).
Yeah ... I see that.
I guess we'll have to watch it and see what happens.
The pattern this year is 3 things (negative) for tropical development so far: The SAL (dry Saharan Air Layer), troughs (recurving storms only over open ocean), and shear (yeah - when and where you DONT want it).
During any El Nino year (this year thewre IS a weak El Nino), we get these "tough" times for tropical systems. 2006 and 2007 was the SAME scenario.
If this one does go through the Caribbean, we have to be careful of any places we chase (avoid another Jamiaca Mugging).
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
System currently looks much more interesting/organized, with sustained deep convection and hints of a stronger circulation developing per this mornings IR images. I'd guess we're not far from TD and probably even a rapid jump to TS status....
Greg Blumberg
EF4
I'm pretty impressed with this system so far, that is comparing to both Bill and Danny. The ocean to me just seems like it's stirring up storm system after storm system to try and hit the US. Each time it looks like it gets closer and closer.
Per satellite, I'm seeing some very, very nice convection and some definite spin to the system. There's a good cirrus shield over the storm, CIMSS is identifying a positive shear tendency on the northwest side of the storm, which has me wondering how that will affect 94L's development. This is my first season seriously watching tropical weather and their development, so my knowledge is limited.
Attached below is the link to the closest buoy I can find near the center of the circulation. The most recent report is 2 hours old.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0
Per satellite, I'm seeing some very, very nice convection and some definite spin to the system. There's a good cirrus shield over the storm, CIMSS is identifying a positive shear tendency on the northwest side of the storm, which has me wondering how that will affect 94L's development. This is my first season seriously watching tropical weather and their development, so my knowledge is limited.
Attached below is the link to the closest buoy I can find near the center of the circulation. The most recent report is 2 hours old.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0
J Kinkaid
31/2345 UTC 16.7N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic
All it needs is an LLC and it will be upgraded to a TS. Strange that Danny had a nice LLC but no convection and this storm is the opposite. It's center is now relocating further away from the 40K shear so I expect an upgrade to a TS by 5am.
All it needs is an LLC and it will be upgraded to a TS. Strange that Danny had a nice LLC but no convection and this storm is the opposite. It's center is now relocating further away from the 40K shear so I expect an upgrade to a TS by 5am.
Tim Lumb
This looks like it will be it.
NHC has it has 50%+ of it becoming a tropical storm, and the paths it could take show it will at least hit Carribean.
To me, with the satellite that wunderground has gotten, it already looks like a tropical storm without an eye.
NHC has it has 50%+ of it becoming a tropical storm, and the paths it could take show it will at least hit Carribean.
To me, with the satellite that wunderground has gotten, it already looks like a tropical storm without an eye.
Brian Emfinger
EF4
Looks really good right now (a annular tropical low!). I imagine this will go nearly straight to TS soon. Could be a hurricane by the end of the day (if not sooner).
J Kinkaid
Don't let the convection fool you . This storm has along way to go before it's upgraded. Would be a waste of gas to send recon into it today as it's just an open wave
Brian Emfinger
EF4
yep guess I'm fooled. Visible doesn't look nearly as good as what IR hinted at earlier.
Last edited by a moderator:
Jim Bishop
EF4
I strongly disagree. The only reason NHC has not declared Invest 94 a depression or tropical storm is their uncertainty on it having a low level center beneath the deep convection. But it has great upper level outflow and intense, persistent convection with an associated surface low. Should the plane this afternoon find a close surface circulation near the deep convection I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them go staight to naming this a tropical storm.
What's amazing is how there is such as small space between the deep convection and the wall of strong southwesterly shear just to the west. As long as this system can maintain this space between it and the shear, it should either hold its own or slowly strengthen. But I think it's getting a lot of help from the right entrace region of a jet streak to its north. The GFS has this jet streak weakening and moving further east by midday tomorrow. By then we'll probably see what Invest 94 is made of as it will likely be battling the shear at that point without the extra lift from the jet streak.
Dan Robinson
Looks like a carbon copy of Danny, with an evident exposed low-level circulation just west of the deep convection.
