Tri-State Tornado- What did it require to happen?

Rob Wadsworth

Rob Wadsworth

EF5
Joined
Aug 17, 2008
Messages
848
Location
Cupertino CA & Storm Lake IA
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Tri-State_Tornado_cyclone_track_map_key.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-State_Tornado

I was reading this on the Wiki link. What struck me is that it hasn't happened since. That is - a ~240 mile long tornado track. Since time has moved on and the population in this area has increased - the death and destruction it caused would be amplifed if such an occurence were to happen again.

Here is my real question: What conditions would be necessary for this to take place? Since the weather data wasn't as accurate and verifiable by today's standards - we can only guess some of the parameter values. Say what you think.

Speculation and weather skills to formulate the possible occurence from happening again is open to all for synthesizing a possible forcast here also - so please speculate and give details. I'm sure that its track isn't as critical as the forces that brought it into being. But it is fair to use topography to formulate a similar occurence.

I want to learn some more about forecasting, so this thread is for speculation as well as writing a possible scanario(s)...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I am no expert but after this spring on may 8th I think it may have been an MCV.Maybe same type of set up little different outcome more intense low pressure and jetstream maybe.The tristate tornado is just weird most of the damage was in the middle of the day and the storm was moving average of 65 mph.I think it would be impossible to forcast something like this, that only happens once in 100 or so years.If it happen to day I am sure we would get a better handle on it,but who's to say it will.
 
Well first things are...there would have been a screaming criss-cross of the low/mid level jets. Given the location of the violent tornado track, I would speculate that a strong surface low tracked from SE Kansas or NE Oklahoma immediately along or south of the I-44/I-64 corridors. This incredible tornadic supercell occurred on the northeast nose of where the howling LLJ intersected the warm front. The powerful mid-level jet trajectories tracked the intense tornadic supercell perfectly along the WF boundary from the SE Missouri Ozarks into SW Indiana. The balance of strong shear and steady influx of good unstable air sustained this nasty tornadic supercell . Additional strong/violent tornadoes occurred in the evening along the DL or Pacific front and WF across KY/TN/AL/IN. This is how I kind of envisioned this event going down....March 18, 1925 was quite a day. Now to chase something like that fast through that rough
territory ...yikes.
 
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/1925/wi_body.php

That's a very nice write up about what the setup probably involved. There is not much I would add other than that it reminds me of many of the early (or late) season high risk setups: extreme shear, very deep surface low, low cape, warm front setup. The kinds of days where you are watching the visibile satellite closely, hoping those breaks in the low levels clouds open up a bit more so you're working with 1500 J/Kg instead of 500 J/Kg. Given the extreme nature of the tornado, there probably was quite a bit of cape present though.

Assuming this event occured today, it probably would have sucked from a chaser's point of view. These early season, low cape, high shear setups feature poor visibility, and ridiculous storms speeds. A tornado moving 65 mph takes the cake though. You'll get one chance to see that storm, and then wave goodbye to it. You're only hope is that it parallels an open interstate like I-70, but even then with the low LCL's, scud, and haze its going to be a frustrating pursuit. Frankly, I hate these setups. They are not fun chases, and they are extremely dangerous and destructive. I'd much rather be sitting out in a beanfield watching a picturesque rope where nobody else even knows there was a tornado.

Also, if it occured today, surely the damage would be greater due to increased development, but I think the death toll would be a lot lower. A ridiculous surface low and 100 knot mid level jet is not going to get past SPC. We'll have 30-60 hatched tor probs on the day 1, a PDS watch by the time storms start to pop, and every media station within 200 miles will be showing live coverage. People will be well warned.
 
I am not sure of what may have been the cause but I can say I have never seen an MCV that early in the season before. MCV's tend to be a warm season phenomena. I suspect the storm was moving at a very quick pace since it was such a long track and due to the fact it was so early in the season. Probably unseasonably high instability, and little in the way of competing convection.
 
According to the surface analysis of the weather on the day of the Tri-States Tornado on the wikipedia webpage, a 965mb low was located in southern IL. This image was published in the 1925 April "Monthly Weather Review". Not entirely sure how accurate that is, but assuming that the map is accurate:

The first idea which pops into my head for a long-lived violent tornado is what was the helicity like? With a 965mb low, I can only imagine it was insane (maybe someone else can throw out some estimates).

Secondly, the track of the storm was roughly SW to NE. If the storm became surface based and was able to ride along the warm front as the front continued to lift northward during the day then the storm would be able to take all advantages of directional shear.

As Skip mentioned, any CAPE aoa 1000 would be way more than sufficient during such an early set up. Just struggling to find a way that the clouds would have been able to skedaddle for much sun to shine to the surface.

Too many unknowns to really keep mentioning....if someone can find a non-existent sounding from IL on that day, it would be beneficial.
 
Reading that NWS/link that Skip posted here, is kinda freaky. Decent write-up - BTW. The NWS has nothing to compare the '25 event to - so they speculate. Which is fine - that is the original question - after all.

It is curious to note that they may not be prepared to recognize such a pattern if it did occur - as there has been nothing recent to compare it to. If such an event was a cyclical supercell, or a family of tornados -travelling at 65mph- one would still wonder what kept it together. I think that is a fair question still.

In Quinter KS last year, the EF4 tracked for several miles and died. EF4-5 generally are supposed to have the character of longevity. The day before in Hoxie KS, I tried to keep up with a tornado that was travelling N at 60-65mph. But the reported ground speed of the '25 event is also questionable. Was it going 65mph - or faster? One hasn't seen a EF5 travel that fast - that doesn't mean that it couldn't. Covering that distance and staying together ~218 miles would mean that the best dynamics would have to remain consistant longer - and/or move faster as well.

It is hard to imagine a tornado with the strength of the May 3, 1999/Moore OK tavelling at 100mph ground speed. Sure, the NWS would know and disseminate the info the situation as a PDS; but if EM and SKYWRN guys couldn't keep an eye peeled the whole time - it would surely be destructive. Would there really be enough warning? I wonder...

Just two cents...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

adlyons
State of the Chase Season 2024
13 14 15 16 17
Replies
247
Views
27K
Jamie H
Jamie H
Tony Laubach
'Not Feeling It' Chase Burnout?
2
Replies
23
Views
2K
Jamie H
Jamie H
Kaivaira H
If two tornadoes collide, would they produce a stronger tornado?
Replies
3
Views
2K
Jeff Duda
Jeff Duda
Greg McLaughlin
May 31, 2013 El Reno Tornado
Replies
14
Views
6K
Greg McLaughlin
Greg McLaughlin
As a monster tornado bore down, many in the Mississippi Delta had no chance of finding a shelter
Replies
2
Views
1K
Sam Soman
Back
Top