Total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017 - predictions

[JamesCaruso]

Thoughts on clouds in eastern WY / NEB panhandle?


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[Dan Robinson]

I would think the only threat for clouds in WY/NE would be from either VERY early upslope convection or an ill-timed jet max spinning up a lee surface low overnight. Even then, I think totality is early enough to avoid both of those in 99% of scenarios.

I made this poll for #wxtwitter to see who was planning to travel to totality. Not scientific by any means, but interesting that it's split nearly 50/50:

https://twitter.com/stormhighway/status/891864131065741314

 

[Mark Egan]

My main concern is clouds. While models are adept at forecasting large areas of clouds associated with weather systems, they are less adept at forecasting fair weather cumulus which could be equally fatal to the 2 minutes of totality. I have some tricks which are helpful: 850mb mixing ratios and mesoscale areas of lift and subsidence, none are foolproof. What is everyone doing for cloud forecasting?

The eclipse chasers discussion group that I mentioned earlier is at https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/SEML/info - all of you are welcome and encouraged to join.

Jay Anderson, a meteorologist from Canada, is very experienced in eclipse climatology and weather. His site http://eclipsophile.com/ is very valuable. You can see the climate data for various locations along the track of totality at http://eclipsophile.com/overview/ (go to the bottom and click on each state)

As one person said once and many have repeated: "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get."

So, Jay has also created a page showing some good forecast sites: http://eclipsophile.com/eclipsewx/

Actually, fair weather cumulus has a decent chance of dissipating partially or completely as the temperature drops. And if you're near a large lake, it can create a clear patch in the direction of the sun (see the South Carolina page for good examples of that) But other clouds may form as the temperature drops. Of course, if there's a large scale weather system, then the best bet is to try to escape from it- but then there may be traffic issues.

I posted this to the group the other day:

"Sites like http://www.skippysky.com.au/NorthAmerica/ and http://clearoutside.com/ give forecasts for high, middle, and low level clouds (anyone know of any others?) Are clouds at a certain altitude more likely to dissipate as totality approaches? If clouds are present at a certain level of the atmosphere a few hours before the eclipse, are they likely to return as the temperature drops? I know, for example, that "popcorn cumulus" have the best chance of dissipating- which level of the atmosphere are they in? I know that fog (esp Oregon coast) has a chance of re-forming- I guess this would be "low clouds"?"

and got this response from Jay:

"Typically, small convective clouds with their “roots” on the ground will dissipate as the shadow approaches as the ground cools far more than the atmosphere and their forcing is cut off. Having said that, convective clouds of sufficient depth or amount (broken cloudiness) may also spread out into a layer of stratus, though I think that is more likely in mountain environments (i.e. 1988 in the Philippines, 1991 in Baja). Surface-based convective clouds may have bases that reach the mid-levels, but those clouds will most often be towering cumulus (TCU) or thunderstorms (CB) since it takes a lot of heating to force a parcel of dry air to saturation at mid-cloud levels (but it makes for great storm chasing). They may weaken but likely won’t dissipate during the eclipse. Also, TCUs and CBs both produce mid-level cloud during their lifecycle. Fog may reform if it only a short time elapsed since it first dissipated (Baja 1991 but not Egypt 2006). If an hour or two has passed, the moisture is likely distributed through a greater depth of the atmosphere and will not reform in the duration of an eclipse. Of course, if a persistent fog bank lies nearby (offshore?), all bets are off. To completely answer your questions, you will have to know how the numerical model calculates and defines the various cloud levels. Mid and upper clouds are usually associated with upper-level disturbances and will not respond to the eclipse. Some notes about models: The GFS model is geared toward the forecast of system cloud. The NAM model focusses on convective clouds. Typically they will have (sometimes significant) differences. The HRRR and the RAP focus on convection as well, but they are very short range models. These models have specific uses – the GFS goes out 16 days, the NAM, 84 hours, the HRRR 18 hours, and the RAP 21 hours. The Canadian GDPS goes out 10 days (15 on the right web site) and the RDPS goes out 48 hours. All of these forecast cloud and some forecast layer cloud (actually, they all do, but certain fields are hard to find online). Skippy-Sky uses the GFS model; I don’t know what clearoutside does, but I seem to recall that it used a mixture of models from different countries though certainly the GFS is in there.
The question you will have to answer is “which model is right?” One source that I know of will let you compare these at a single location: spotwx.com, a fairly sophisticated Canadian site. Just click on their map, or insert a city name and the available model forecasts can be examined. The College of DuPage site at weather.cod.edu will give you regional or continental maps of the cloud forecasts of the various models if you want a landscape view (weather analysis tools >numerical models>(select model)). When different models begin to agree, you can be more confident of your local forecast. For other eclipses, only two models are freely available worldwide: the Canadian GDPS and the American GFS. Spotwx.com works globally and will show both models and some others (try it on Paris), but the comparison may or may not leave you any wiser until the eclipse is fairly close (~3 days). And finally, as a fairly experienced storm chaser, I’d like to point out that the actual (convective) weather often bears only an approximate relationship to the model prediction."

I have the experience in eclipses; all of you have the experience in weather. Let's help each other out.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Mike Hollingshead pointed out that there are some major wildfires in the Pacific northwest and southern British Columbia. These will be a very real threat to the otherwise prime viewing locations from Oregon to Wyoming.

Here is a smoke forecast site - looking pretty ominous at the moment:

http://firesmoke.ca/forecasts/BSC00WC04/current/

 

[MClarkson]

Ya its been pretty hazy here in Seattle for almost a week now... but the sun has still been pretty visible and has been creating these great red tints at lower solar angles. The smoke might leave some pretty cool tint effects, especially earlier for the onset of the partial? I am debating how hard I should try to avoid the smoke... if at all? I don't want to miss out on the corona...

 

[beaudodson]

My house is in the 100% zone in southern Illinois. It is exciting and I can't wait to experience the eclipse. Another will occur in 2024. We will also be at 100% during that event, as well.

On the topic of absurd predictions being made. Here is a short list of what local and state government officials, emergency management, and media have predicted for our region (these are main-stream sources)

It is ridiculous and quite frustrating. I don't know how many scared people have messaged me wondering if they need to leave the area.

US power grid collapses
Human trafficking
ATM's will run out of money or not work
Political protests
Children being traumatized
Emergency services not able to move from point A to B
Gas shortages
A crime wave
Food shortages
Cell phones won't work
Prepare to not travel or limit travel for days
Terrorist attacks
Toilets won't work because too many people flushing around that time (yes, I read that)

Sounds like we need to be in the bunker for this one.

 

[JeremyS]

I know this is way premature as we are still 2 full weeks away, but I am already at least somewhat worried about potential cloud cover over a large part of the area. Call it a feeling(more like just pessimism that I'm going to miss the coolest thing ever), but the weather pattern around here seems like it's been pretty crappy for this entire past week with clouds, cool weather, and off and on rain, which is pretty abnormal for this time of year. No signs of it breaking this week either.
Plenty of time for this to break, but the 360 hour GFS had rain/clouds over a large area of this part of the country on the 21st
I say this with plenty of sarcasm that is of course hiding my actual feelings of worry!

 

[JeremyS]

I've been trying to organize and get my equipment ready. I do want to document as much of this as I can, without of course missing everything because my head is looking down at my cameras. I've been trying to "practice" a few things in advance.
This afternoon I took out my video camera to see how things would look through it and the solar filter I attached over the lens. I have a Panasonic 4k camcorder, and when I went to look at the sun through the filter, I was not able to find it. I wasn't able to play around a long time as I was on my lunch break, but all I was seeing was black, which I know to expect except for the sun itself. I bought a solar filter sheet and have basically cut out a circle shaped piece and taped that over the lens opening.
So do you guys think I was just missing the sun in my viewfinder or do you think it was a camera issue? Sorry for the very vague question, but I guess I'm just looking for some suggestions or tips on settings, etc to use and then I can play around with the camcorder some more when I get a bit more time.
I was thinking it could be an autofocus issue where the camcorder was trying to focus on the filter in front of it, so I did set the focus to infinity and switched it over to manual and again wasn't able to find the sun. Again I was a little rushed and the sun would go in and out of the clouds here today, so I might have just been missing it somehow.....
Any help would be appreciated, and sorry again for the very general question.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Destin - the guy behind the SmarterEveryDay YouTube channel - has put up a few videos about watching it, including how to film it. Try this video and see if it helps:

 

[Dan Robinson]

Less than 2 weeks out, still tons of hotel availability in the STL metro, mostly along I-70 to the north and west to Wentzville:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searchmap.html?resolved-location=CITY:1426966:UNKNOWN:UNKNOWN&destination-id=1426966&q-destination=St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America&q-check-in=2017-08-20&q-check-out=2017-08-22&q-rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=2&q-room-0-children=0

Looking at that, coupled with the widespread indifference about the event among friends and coworkers (very few are going or even seem to care much), makes the apocalyptic traffic scenario, at least in the Midwest, seem less and less likely.

The exception would be Missouri. I-70 gets gridlocked during post-Thanksgiving just with returning Mizzou students, the eclipse is going to shut everything down between KC and STL.

Kansas City is similar to STL, slightly higher percentage of booked hotels:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searchmap.html?resolved-location=CITY:1406838:UNKNOWN:UNKNOWN&destination-id=1406838&q-destination=Kansas City, Missouri, United States Of America&q-check-in=2017-08-20&q-check-out=2017-08-22&q-rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=2&q-room-0-children=0

Nashville, on the other hand, is nearly completely booked solid:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searchmap.html?resolved-location=CITY:1489624:UNKNOWN:UNKNOWN&destination-id=1489624&q-destination=Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America&q-check-in=2017-08-20&q-check-out=2017-08-22&q-rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=2&q-room-0-children=0

 

[JamesCaruso]

Less than 2 weeks out, still tons of hotel availability in the STL metro, mostly along I-70 to the north and west to Wentzville:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searchmap.html?resolved-location=CITY:1426966:UNKNOWN:UNKNOWN&destination-id=1426966&q-destination=St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America&q-check-in=2017-08-20&q-check-out=2017-08-22&q-rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=2&q-room-0-children=0

Looking at that, coupled with the widespread indifference about the event among friends and coworkers (very few are going or even seem to care much), makes the apocalyptic traffic scenario, at least in the Midwest, seem less and less likely.

The exception would be Missouri. I-70 gets gridlocked during post-Thanksgiving just with returning Mizzou students, the eclipse is going to shut everything down between KC and STL.

Kansas City is similar to STL, slightly higher percentage of booked hotels:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searchmap.html?resolved-location=CITY:1406838:UNKNOWN:UNKNOWN&destination-id=1406838&q-destination=Kansas City, Missouri, United States Of America&q-check-in=2017-08-20&q-check-out=2017-08-22&q-rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=2&q-room-0-children=0

Nashville, on the other hand, is nearly completely booked solid:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searchmap.html?resolved-location=CITY:1489624:UNKNOWN:UNKNOWN&destination-id=1489624&q-destination=Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America&q-check-in=2017-08-20&q-check-out=2017-08-22&q-rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=2&q-room-0-children=0

I'm hoping the crowds are all headed to places like Nashville, or where the time of totality is highest in Kentucky, and stay away from the rural areas, which seems likely based on Dan's info on St. Louis and Kansas City.

I'm still a little worried about traffic out of Denver heading up to WY/NE, but the path is further from that city than it is from STL or KC so hopefully won't be too bad. I mean it's not as if the whole city is getting evacuated, how bad could it be??



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[JamesCaruso]

<snip>

Looking at that, coupled with the widespread indifference about the event among friends and coworkers (very few are going or even seem to care much), makes the apocalyptic traffic scenario, at least in the Midwest, seem less and less likely.

<snip>

]

Hopefully just the typical media hysteria, yet another manufactured crisis



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[Elaine Spencer]

US power grid collapses
Human trafficking
ATM's will run out of money or not work
Political protests
Children being traumatized
Emergency services not able to move from point A to B
Gas shortages
A crime wave
Food shortages
Cell phones won't work
Prepare to not travel or limit travel for days
Terrorist attacks
Toilets won't work because too many people flushing around that time (yes, I read that)

Don't forget human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, MASS HYSTERIA!!!

 

[JeremyS]

I see Lincoln, NE and the small towns south/west of there are sold out, but Omaha has lots of availability. I'm not sure what to think. Omaha has 500k people and I-80 west leads to the path, so I'm assuming it will be packed with traffic from people that are just making the 2 hour trip to the path, but I guess I don't know. Here at work, I've heard a few people talk about. One of our local news stations posted a story about the eclipse this week and a lot of the responses were, "I'll just watch it from work/home since we're(Omaha) is so close to the path." Those people seem to be unaware of the huge difference between 96-98% and 100% totality.
Dependent on weather of course, I am planning on heading near the town of Wilber southwest of Lincoln where I scoped out a spot last weekend that is pretty flat and treeless so hopefully I can see the shadow racing towards me. My initial plan is to leave here about 830 and my destination is about 2 hours away. Hopefully that will be enough time to get there even with traffic. Of course if the weather looks crappy, than I plan on leaving Sunday to drive where I need to.
On a side note, a couple of my friends that are coming with are going to have 500mm and 750mm lenses and are amazing photographers. I can't wait to see what they capture!

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

I'm still a little worried about traffic out of Denver heading up to WY/NE, but the path is further from that city than it is from STL or KC so hopefully won't be too bad. I mean it's not as if the whole city is getting evacuated, how bad could it be??

I'm hoping there aren't that many people from Denver heading north. I'll be travelling up through Pawnee Grasslands into Western NE somewhere...not sure where yet, but somewhere in totality as close to center path as I can get. My concern is that aside from 25 up through Cheyenne, there aren't a lot of alternate North bound routes, so odds are good that 52/71 will be busy. Luckily I've chased Pawnee enough to know its a decent grid of gravel roads. I don't recommend backroading it through there for the unfamiliar though. Lots of dead ends.

I hope you're right about 2+ hours being just far enough that all the hipsters in Denver decide its not worth it and would rather watch the partial from their local craft brewery and beard wax emporium.