Total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017 - predictions

[Dan Robinson]

I'm getting ready to book my "backup plan" hotel in Salina. Fortunately, many hotels a couple of hours or more outside of the totality path don't show any signs of being booked any time soon. If clouds are a threat in the Midwest, I will start heading west Sunday morning, stay in Salina and head north in the morning. There are an abundance of secondary roads from Kansas into the Nebraska totality path, so in theory, traffic should be at a minimum.

James, that is interesting about the eclipse glasses. I bought a pack of 20 from an Amazon seller. I would think there would be some major (including criminal) liability for putting people's eyesight in danger. I might try posing the question to an experienced eclipse chaser.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I too bought a pack of 10 from an amazon seller. Guess there is a chance they are crap, but I would assume its OK. Guess with my eyesight I should probably figure that out beforehand.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Just found this link about eclipse glasses. I guess I'm not paranoid after all http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/fake_glasses.htm


Also, this NASA page mentions the four manufacturers that meet proper standards: https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/safety


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[Todd Lemery]

Does anybody know if a welding mask is suitable for viewing an eclipse?

 

[JamesCaruso]

Does anybody know if a welding mask is suitable for viewing an eclipse?

Todd - see this link, which mentions (about 8 paragraphs down) a specific "shade number" of welding glass that can be used. I saw something else online that said the typical welding mask is not strong enough. It needs to be a specific type.


https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/safety2.html


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[JamesCaruso]

I'm getting ready to book my "backup plan" hotel in Salina. Fortunately, many hotels a couple of hours or more outside of the totality path don't show any signs of being booked any time soon. If clouds are a threat in the Midwest, I will start heading west Sunday morning, stay in Salina and head north in the morning. There are an abundance of secondary roads from Kansas into the Nebraska totality path, so in theory, traffic should be at a minimum.

James, that is interesting about the eclipse glasses. I bought a pack of 20 from an Amazon seller. I would think there would be some major (including criminal) liability for putting people's eyesight in danger. I might try posing the question to an experienced eclipse chaser.

Dan, I like the idea of a backup plan, and glad to hear that there are still hotels to be found within a reasonable range of the path of totality.

My own plan is to fly with my family into Denver on Friday, spend the weekend in Boulder, and then drive up to eastern WY or the NEB panhandle on Monday morning. It's about a 3.5 hour drive but the only closer place I could find was Fort Collins and that only saves a half hour so wasn't worth checking out of the Boulder hotel just to reposition there. But I should probably make a backup reservation somewhere to the east (if I make it to the west it would also have to be further north so the drive starts getting longer; plus I am not familiar with that region, but am familiar with our traditional chasing regions).

After the eclipse we are heading up north another couple hours to Mt. Rushmore, so I hope I can stick with the NEB panhandle target area. I am really excited about the chance to show my family this part of the country that I have come to love from my chasing trips. It will even be their first time in the Denver area. Although it's rare, it's not impossible to hope that we may even have occasion to chase storms in Colorado that weekend, I would love to give my wife and kids even a small taste of what it feels like to see a storm over the open Plains.



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[Elaine Spencer]

Is anyone besides me targeting small towns that have NO eclipse related events scheduled because we hate crowds? There are several small towns in my target area that seem to have absolutely nothing scheduled for eclipse day, perhaps because 1) they still don't know there's a total eclipse coming, 2) if they do, they don't think it's a big deal, or 3) they are intentionally ignoring the event in hopes of keeping the crowds away, or due to lack of resources for organizing an event.

I would love nothing more than to simply drive into some tiny burg, go to the nearest park with a picnic lunch around noon-ish, set up our lawn chairs, break out the eclipse glasses, wait for totality along with a few locals and then go home. I'm not interested in a big festival, I just want to see the eclipse and that's that. I would think that a small town with no "event" would be the place to do this because people from outside the area would not make it a point to go there. On the other hand, what if huge crowds start randomly showing up and it's a big mess because the community wasn't prepared?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Judging by anecdotal observations from friends and family, general interest in the eclipse is much less than I thought it would be. Very few within my circles are planning to go see it. Some have even made other plans for that weekend. I figure this may change as the media/social media frenzy ramps up within a week or two of the event, but I don't see the apocalyptic traffic jams being as widespread as feared. I think the coasts will probably have problems due to the sheer population numbers funneling into the area, but in the middle of the country, it may very well be a non-event.

I do expect many small towns within.the path will be overwhelmed, with food and gas supplies being exhausted. I'll have provisions for that, but I'm increasingly thinking I won't need them.

 

[Rick Schmidt]

Keep in mind that most likely thousands of people will coming from other countries to view this eclipse.....Canada especially. When there is a total eclipse in other countries it happens, so no reason why it wouldn't here.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

I'm going to be at a family cabin just south of Stanley, Idaho. At an elevation of 7200 feet, we are hoping for clear skies! One of the biggest concerns is the number of people expected in this state, and during peak fire season. Can you imagine a major forest fire anywhere in the line of totality where thousands of people will be? Evacuations, traffic issues, etc. Sure hope it doesn't happen.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I do expect many small towns within.the path will be overwhelmed, with food and gas supplies being exhausted. I'll have provisions for that, but I'm increasingly thinking I won't need them.

I think that's a massive over-prediction. My guess is that you will be able to find spots along non-interstate and non-major highway roads right in the middle of the path of totality with absolutely no one else around provided you're more than a few miles from a major city. Out in the country, there aren't going to be THAT many people flocking in to see it. The vast majority of people live in the cities and it is highly unlikely that any substantial fraction of them will travel more than a few dozen miles or so away to get a good spot.

I predict rooftops, city parks, parking garages, and other large open areas within bigger cities may see some significant congestion, but outside of major metropolitan areas it will probably be fairly "business as usual" feeling.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Is anyone besides me targeting small towns that have NO eclipse related events scheduled because we hate crowds? ?

Yes, as you can read in one of my earlier posts, I am going to Wyoming or Nebraska, weather (cloud cover) permitting. I want to avoid crowds and a circus/party atmosphere and enjoy the natural beauty of the event. I want to avoid city lights and be in an open landscape where I can watch the shadows race across the landscape and see 360 degrees around me. And I want to share with my family some of my beloved storm hunting grounds - although it's not quite classic storm chasing territory like the southern or central Plains, it's still a part of the country they would otherwise never have a reason to see.



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[Marc R. O'Leary]

@JamesCaruso

My wife and I are planning to be in the same general area, looking for a nice peaceful and uninhabited spot to watch this event. Its so big and wide open up there that even with a "limited" path of totality, finding a secluded spot should be a piece of cake.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@JamesCaruso

My wife and I are planning to be in the same general area, looking for a nice peaceful and uninhabited spot to watch this event. Its so big and wide open up there that even with a "limited" path of totality, finding a secluded spot should be a piece of cake.

Thanks Marc, I hope you're right, I am envisioning that there will be cars lined up on both sides of the road within the path of totality, particularly near the centerline... If that's true, I am worried about getting there early enough for a spot, as the nearest hotel room I could get is 3 hours away.


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[Marc R. O'Leary]

Thanks Marc, I hope you're right, I am envisioning that there will be cars lined up on both sides of the road within the path of totality, particularly near the centerline... If that's true, I am worried about getting there early enough for a spot, as the nearest hotel room I could get is 3 hours away.


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I'm taking this whole event lightly. If I can make it to the totality path, great, if not, no big deal. I'm not one to dive into crowds to experience something, even of this rarity. Even chasing, I will purposely leave a good setup if it gets crowded. If it looks like a mess up there, I'll happily watch 90% down in Pawnee Grasslands or similar areas with nary a soul to be seen.

Full disclosure: My wife wants to see this more than me. Once in a lifetime event, sure, but I'd rather watch a good meteor shower or lightning storm. Perseids: Aug 11-12, 17. Gemenids: Dec 13-14, 17. Better shows than an eclipse IMO.