Total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017 - predictions

[JeremyS]

Here's an article ran in our local paper and on the website for the paper. Wide range estimate of 100k-450k+ people just heading to Nebraska based on the person's interviewed opinion:

http://www.omaha.com/news/metro/ecl...cle_39c1aae2-7efb-583b-90fc-6a997fd69f25.html

 

[Sean Mullen]

Thought I would post this link for anyone looking for solar filters. The bottom grouping has threaded filters in every size. Won't need it but one time, but worth the $60.

http://www.thousandoaksoptical.com/solar.html

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If anyone has ordered from this vendor recently, check the website; I saw the message below today. I ordered back in late June, so I should be okay, but no one notified me of a backlog, so I don't know if they notified people who ordered after July 9.

NOTICE: Due to the high volume of orders for the August 21st eclipse, SolarLite Mounted Filters, Threaded Camera filters and H-Alpha Systems are temporarily unavailable. Based on current production and the back log of orders, we do not expect to have them available before the eclipse. Our solar filter sheets are a good alternative and still available. We are very sorry for the inconvenience.

Glasses, Cards, Filter Sheets and Bulk Rolls are available and have a current lead time of 1-2 weeks before shipment.

Note: Orders placed prior to July 9th have a 3-4-week lead time from order date and should all be delivered by August 15th. Orders placed after July 9th may not be delivered in time and can be changed to Solar Filter Sheet(s). Please email your request and include order number.

 

[Mark Egan]

I'm taking this whole event lightly. If I can make it to the totality path, great, if not, no big deal. I'm not one to dive into crowds to experience something, even of this rarity. Even chasing, I will purposely leave a good setup if it gets crowded. If it looks like a mess up there, I'll happily watch 90% down in Pawnee Grasslands or similar areas with nary a soul to be seen.

Full disclosure: My wife wants to see this more than me. Once in a lifetime event, sure, but I'd rather watch a good meteor shower or lightning storm. Perseids: Aug 11-12, 17. Gemenids: Dec 13-14, 17. Better shows than an eclipse IMO.

I have been a member of an eclipse chasers discussion group for almost 20 years now. Many of the world's top eclipse scientists and chasers are members. Some of them have chased 20 or more.

I was mostly clouded out of the one I chased near Munich in 1999. Through that experience, and through the many stories I've read and videos I've seen, I can tell you that there is NOTHING like a total solar eclipse. An partial eclipse of 1% to 70% is neat and interesting; 71% to 95% is very impressive; 96-99% is amazing and unique, but totality is AWESOME in the true sense of the word.

In the final few moments before totality, there is an INCREDIBLE rush of darkness from the west. During totality, there is a 360 degree sunset, and some bright stars and planets come out.

But most importantly: during totality, you can remove your solar filter, and you will see solar corona. It's the outer atmosphere of the sun and it is absolutely BEAUTIFUL. You'll see coronal streamers tracing the lines of a chaotic magnetic field around the sun.

The sight of the solar corona is absolutely mind-numbing. No picture or video will EVER match what the eye sees. THAT is what gets people addicted to chasing total solar eclipses.

For inspiration and information, you are welcome to check out my blog on the eclipse: http://eclipseaugust2017.blogspot.com/

I've gathered some of the most inspiring eclipse stories and videos I've come across over the years. I have a links page featuring sites made by some of the world's top eclipse chasers; I have a description of what happens during a total solar eclipse. More recently, I've started posting things related to this eclipse itself.

I hope that I can inspire you to chase totality. Take the back roads if you need to avoid the crowds- but please find a way to get there.

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

@Mark Egan

Thanks for the info Mark - I appreciate your enthusiasm.

 

[Dan Robinson]

At one month out, there are no signs of a widespread sellout of hotel rooms near the eclipse path in the Midwest. Here in St. Louis, a search reveals that there are still plenty of rooms available for the 20th-22nd, even inside the totality path.

 

[JamesCaruso]

At one month out, there are no signs of a widespread sellout of hotel rooms near the eclipse path in the Midwest. Here in St. Louis, a search reveals that there are still plenty of rooms available for the 20th-22nd, even inside the totality path.

Wow, that's surprising, given that there are no rooms available in eastern WY or the Nebraska panhandle. Sure, there are fewer hotels in these areas, but proportionately more people in the areas Dan mentions.


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[Marc R. O'Leary]

I think we've decided, pending weather conditions, to head to Scottsbluff, then scoot north into the hinterlands to find a nice quiet spot. Luckily for us it's a day trip, so not a big ordeal.

Also hearing that a lot of people simply have no idea this is happening.

Fingers crossed for clear skies.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

At one month out, there are no signs of a widespread sellout of hotel rooms near the eclipse path in the Midwest.

That's surprising to me as well. My guess (and that's all it is) is that at this time, there are still relatively few Americans, outside of hardcore eclipse chasers and astronomy buffs, who have ever seen a TOTAL solar eclipse in person. Remember, the last one on the U.S. mainland was in 1979, it only touched the Pacific Northwest and the very northern Rockies, it was in winter, and it was clouded out in many areas. The last one before that was in 1970, and I believe that too was clouded out in some areas. So very few Americans alive today have any idea of what it's like to view a total solar eclipse.

That said... I'm betting that after this one, as word of mouth spreads on social media and elsewhere from the people who did see it and rave about what an incredible experience it was (assuming that most of them enjoy favorable weather), interest in the NEXT U.S. solar eclipse in 2024 will really take off. You may have to start making plans for that one as soon as this one ends!

 

[Dan Robinson]

In talking to friends here in St. Louis, many aren't aware that to see the really cool stuff, you need to be in the totality path. I think many don't realize that even just outside of totality, you won't see anything (unless you count as "something" watching the moon partially encroach on the sun with eclipse glasses). Some are just figuring they'll see what they can from where they are. Most are simply unaware of how overwhelmingly "worth it" being in totality is.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about southern Illinois being mostly trouble-free, but I'll be monitoring traffic levels starting the night before. I only have 40 miles of back roads to drive to get where I want, and there's really only one bottleneck at the Kaskaskia River bridge just south of my town. If jams start appearing at 3AM, I'll be worried! My plan now is to be on the road at 5, unless there are no jams when I wake up at 4. In that case I can leave a little later.

 

[Rick Schmidt]

Many people close to either side of the path will be quite startled, even if they know what is going on. The 95-99% areas, the light will get quite dim....noticeable to people inside near a window. I have experience 1 total, and 2 annulars, and the lighting is quite eerie.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Perusing the map on hotels.com today, it appears every hotel within an hour's drive of the totality path is booked solid now, with the exception of the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas. Those cities look to have plenty of rooms, but mostly in higher-end hotels ($170 a night and up).

 

[JamesCaruso]

Saw this article in the Wall Street Journal today; not sure if you can access if not a subscriber, but it recommends being in the path 24-48 hours ahead of time. I hope that's overblown media hype and not necessary in out-of-the-way places like eastern WY or the NE panhandle... It's hard to imagine experiencing heavy traffic on secondary roads if you get going early in the morning...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/making...-the-solar-eclipse-read-this-first-1501255615

BTW, another option for folks to consider is AirBNB, although in the areas I mentioned above there are slim pickings available, either a tiny trailer for $150 or a house for over $2000/night!

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[Cailyn Lloyd]

My main concern is clouds. While models are adept at forecasting large areas of clouds associated with weather systems, they are less adept at forecasting fair weather cumulus which could be equally fatal to the 2 minutes of totality. I have some tricks which are helpful: 850mb mixing ratios and mesoscale areas of lift and subsidence, none are foolproof. What is everyone doing for cloud forecasting?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Google Trends is another data source to watch as this event approaches:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=solar eclipse 2017

This shows the Wyoming-Oregon segment of the path having a greater interest, and potentially, traffic.

As for clouds, midday overcast here in the Midwest in August is fairly rare, outside of being in the trajectory of a daily MCS/ring-of-fire regime. Any cumulus fields *should* be in their infant stages during totality. Synoptically, I'll be concerned if a west-northwest flow regime sets up to advect MCS anvil material from the northern Plains/upper Midwest, or worse, if the jet is farther south and an overnight MCS is marching across eastern Kansas/Nebraska the night before. The most likely cloud problems would come from high-level anvil debris. Low-level stratus this time of year is extremely rare.

I'm almost resigned to the cloud issue due to the logistics of trying to reposition. If traffic levels are on the upper end of predictions, it is likely that repositioning any later than 36 hours out won't be possible. If it looks grim the night before (MCS in NE/KS heading east) I will consider it based on realtime traffic data.

 

[Brian G]

Google Trends is another data source to watch as this event approaches:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=solar eclipse 2017

This shows the Wyoming-Oregon segment of the path having a greater interest, and potentially, traffic.

As for clouds, midday overcast here in the Midwest in August is fairly rare, outside of being in the trajectory of a daily MCS/ring-of-fire regime. Any cumulus fields *should* be in their infant stages during totality. Synoptically, I'll be concerned if a west-northwest flow regime sets up to advect MCS anvil material from the northern Plains/upper Midwest, or worse, if the jet is farther south and an overnight MCS is marching across eastern Kansas/Nebraska the night before. The most likely cloud problems would come from high-level anvil debris. Low-level stratus this time of year is extremely rare.

I'm almost resigned to the cloud issue due to the logistics of trying to reposition. If traffic levels are on the upper end of predictions, it is likely that repositioning any later than 36 hours out won't be possible. If it looks grim the night before (MCS in NE/KS heading east) I will consider it based on realtime traffic data.

Yep, aside from a poorly timed front or tropical cyclone the odds of clouds are actually pretty low around St. Louis and vicinity this time of year. And 1pm is a near optimal time because that allows time for the left over cloud debris of a nocturnal MCS to burn off while being early enough to not worry about scattered airmass thunderstorms which tend to pop off later in the afternoon or even closer to sunset either.

I'm still not sure what to think about traffic. MoDOT is warning motorists to expect "massive" track problems. And, like you said, it seems like a lot of people are under the false impression that the "show" will be great no matter where you are not realizing that it is a night and day difference between 99% and 100% coverage. I wonder if these people will wise up and jockey for position in the totality path?

Crossing my fingers that clouds won't be a problem...