Total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017 - predictions

[Mark Egan]

I welcome your opinions on this post: https://eclipseaugust2017.blogspot.com/2017/08/reading-and-dealing-with-weather.html

Several posts before that are indirectly related.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I posted this blog earlier about the possible cloud scenarios to watch for:

http://stormhighway.com/blog2017/aug417a.php

Unfortunately the models haven't settled down on anything yet, but we should be getting close to seeing something of a general pattern by this weekend, I'd hope. Today's 18z GFS would be nice (cold front sweeping through Sunday, pretty much the ideal scenario). At 264 hours, it's a dream at this point.

 

[Michael Towers]

I just got an email from Amazon notifying me that the “CE and ISO certified safe” glasses I bought from them are not to be used because they could not confirm they were sourced from a NASA and AAS recommended manufacturer. Amazon did refund my purchase and while I’m not happy to have to find replacements I’m glad I bought from a source that handled the transaction in such a manner. It does make me wonder how many similar “certified safe” glasses were bought from vendors where the purchaser will not get notification and possibly risk damaging their eyes. As posted previously, you can check here for a list of AAS reputable vendors:


https://eclipse.aas.org/resources/solar-filters


Personally I won’t be viewing totality, I’ll be fishing on a lake near the Canadian border getting what I hope will be a bonus sunrise and sunset of fishing activity. For those of you viewing totality I hope you enjoy the show and that the experience lives up to your expectations.

 

[Devin Pitts]

I just got an email from Amazon notifying me that the “CE and ISO certified safe” glasses I bought from them are not to be used because they could not confirm they were sourced from a NASA and AAS recommended manufacturer. Amazon did refund my purchase and while I’m not happy to have to find replacements I’m glad I bought from a source that handled the transaction in such a manner. It does make me wonder how many similar “certified safe” glasses were bought from vendors where the purchaser will not get notification and possibly risk damaging their eyes. As posted previously, you can check here for a list of AAS reputable vendors:

Yeah I made sure to research my glasses before buying this time around after getting burned(no pun intended) on the annular eclipse in 2012.

 

[Michael Towers]

Yeah, my bad on buying them. I saw the list prior to purchasing but figured the certifications made them safe for use. They very well might be but I won’t take the chance.

 

[cstrunk]

Many places are sold out. Does anyone know of any reputable places that are not gouging customers that have any stock left? I'm not looking to buy 50 or 100 of these things. Looking for maybe 5 or so.

 

[cstrunk]

FYI, I just picked up 5 pair at the local Toys 'R Us store. Check there if you're still looking.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The eclipse is now falling within a reasonably predictable range of the medium range models. Looking at the GFS, it looks to support the continued pattern of rainy and stormy over the central US. The 12Z run this morning blows up daily storm complexes over the plains overnight and moves them over the Midwest the next day. This should be a bit concerning for folks generally along and east of the Mississippi, as it suggests a higher probability of cloud cover ruining the show. The GEFS is strongly indicating an upper level ridge to build in over the south-central/southwest US, but I'm still seeing progs of rather high mid-upper level RH, so even that area may deal with more clouds than you would hope.

I've been tentatively planning on getting to SC NE near Fairmount to watch the show. I'm encouraged at this point, but we probably won't know how clear it will be until the night before or the morning of. Some folks may have to scram and hurry to a spot a few hours away from their planned watching spot in the last few hours to catch totality.

 

[Craig A. Green]

Both the Euro and GFS show high cloud layer(s) in SC NE between Alliance and Stapleton at totality. I'm staged at McCook overnight so the best area will reveal itself hopefully in the day before and like you said Jeff, it may very well be a morning decision.

It was interesting to see both Euro and GFS alternate between clouds and clear between runs in SC NE yesterday.

Looks like the upper level humidity streams in at daybreak if the current progs hold. Gas may be the big worry if there is a last minute stampede in the hinterlands of NE.

In for a penny, in for a pound as this still looks the favored area even after the !$!&!# Rex block has thrown wrenches into Central Plains climatology for a few weeks now.

In the umbra,

Craig

 

[Dan Robinson]

Models are giving the entire eclipse path coast to coast some cloud anxiety. Current trends don't really give any spot a guaranteed clear sky. Though as Jeff pointed out, I'd expect the High Plains to be west of any MCS activity and their associated clouds, and therefore the better bet to luck out with a clearing gap. Everywhere else, it looks like a game of roulette as to where an overnight MCS ends up. The models have yet to really settle down on anything, so I'd expect some more big changes in the coming days.

 

[Jeff House]

My bet is KC traffic will be like the day of the World Series parade. Position early! Figure STL will be similar. Reading BNA is so booked has me nervous about any repositioning here in Tenn. Forecast might force me toward Kan/Neb but hoping for Tenn.

Plains risk is cloud debris from MCS but perhaps position behind with local subsidence. Southeast US we will hope reduced solar insolation cuts off Cu fields, but could be too late if a boundary under weak 500 heights allows stuff to go too early.

Back to the crowds: Sounds like double peaks near the 2:40 zone Hopkinsville (either side incl Nashville, Carbondale 2024) and best climo out West. Hopefully the Heartland will offer some maneuverability and of course the right weather.

 

[Dan Robinson]

As of 2:45pm today, KC is now the only metro area that has a good number of hotel rooms. Everywhere else booked solid or very close to it. STL metro is on pace to be booked solid by the end of the day today:

https://www.hotels.com/search/searc...rooms=1&q-room-0-adults=1&q-room-0-children=0


Many of the remaining vacancies in the booked cities are going for $500-$1,000 a night. This is a pretty remarkable development that shows there is a significant last-minute contingency in eclipse travelers.

 

[Brian G]

The 12Z Euro looks decent for much of the eclipse path with clear skies in the morning giving way to convectively induced CU fields by 1pm. Let's hope that more aggressive ridging and further eastward positioning on it compared to the GFS is a trend that will hold.

By the way, a lot of the papers on the meteorological effects are behind paywalls so I can't read them, but I did find some literature suggesting that significant eclipsing can have a slightly suppressive effect to surface based CU fields. That makes sense given that the surface temperature response to reduced solar radiation is more pronounced than mid or upper levels. There have been documented cases where CU fields have been substantially reduced preceding totality.

Meteorological Changes During a Solar Eclipse

 

[Randy Jennings]

Here is today's (20170815) 06z GFS cloud cover predictions. The 3 frames are roughly 4 hours before the eclipse starts in the western US, middle of totality in the US, and 4 hrs after the eclipse exits the eastern US respectively. Hope this improves. If not there is an annular eclipse in the US on 10/14/2023 and total eclipse in the US on 4/8/2024.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Here is today's (20170815) 06z GFS cloud cover predictions. The 3 frames are roughly 4 hours before the eclipse starts in the western US, middle of totality in the US, and 4 hrs after the eclipse exits the eastern US respectively. Hope this improves. If not there is an annular eclipse in the US on 10/14/2023 and total eclipse in the US on 4/8/2024.

View attachment 16294

What are the synoptic meteorological drivers of such extensive cloud cover? Seems like it runs counter to climatological expectations doesn't it? Is this a good overall model to use for general cloud cover forecasts, or does it not really tell the story for one reason or another? (I don't mean "model" as in GFS vs others, I mean this particular type of rendering, is it a reasonable thing to rely upon?)


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