Total solar eclipse of August 21, 2017 - predictions

[Jeff Duda]

What are the synoptic meteorological drivers of such extensive cloud cover? Seems like it runs counter to climatological expectations doesn't it? Is this a good overall model to use for general cloud cover forecasts, or does it not really tell the story for one reason or another? (I don't mean "model" as in GFS vs others, I mean this particular type of rendering, is it a reasonable thing to rely upon?)

At this time of year, the American monsoon is the likely culprit of increased atmospheric moisture, especially across the southwestern through central US (given the flow and parcel trajectories).

It doesn't help that the ensembles (GEFS and Canadian) are showing strong signals for a trough to be present over the Pacific coast/western US that day, helping to pump moisture in along the typical track. Starting to have doubts that there will be widespread clear skies over the central US portion of the totality track.

 

[Dan Robinson]

It is worth noting the the GFS has not been initializing particularly well this week (it failed to pick up on Gert for several runs), and today's 12z run overdid the current cloud cover over the central US.

 

[JeremyS]

I've noticed on today's 12Z GFS run, that despite the large area of rather high percentage of cloud cover, it is still showing temps in the upper 90s and lower 100s across southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas. Maybe a sign that it is overdoing cloud cover?

 

[MClarkson]

GFS lately has had a bias towards too much upper level cloud cover/RH(which would show up on cloud maps while having a lower impact on surface T). That said... the bias is not overwhelming, and GEM is still showing some cloud mass in similar regions... just a bit less. So even factoring in that GFS bias, the long term trends point towards more clouds than we would like.

Ensemble consensus is for greater than normal precipitable water across most of the country.

 

[Craig A. Green]

I am resigned to some cirrus in C NE, just hope the opacity and/or distribution of obscuration is favorable.

Hope there's no StratoCu and it looks like that can be avoided Monday Morning.

"You miss 100% of the shots you never take!" - Wayne Gretsky

 

[Jeff House]

Two best targets east of the Rockies appear to be far western Nebraska, west of the forecast cirrus deck and...
East Tennessee where our forecast is significantly better than our lol climo.

Eastern Nebraska toward KCMO has risk of streaming high clouds on southwest flow out of Kansas. KCMO may still luck out between those clouds and the dying morning MCS. I am truly hoping for the best back in my hometown.

South Carolina was a back-up target until their clouds and PW forecast went to the dogs. IL/KY have mid-high level cloud questions. Given high cloud issues farther northwest, I will view it from here in East Tennessee. Who would of thought?

I know this means a lot to many who have anticipated for years. Good luck to everyone!

 

[JamesCaruso]

This post is not exactly weather related but I will share anyway. Southwest cancelled my Philadelphia to Denver flight today (Friday) and couldn't re-book me until Sunday night, which was too close for comfort. So I had to spend $1000 extra for my family of five to get flights on another airline on Saturday. I am absolutely livid. Meanwhile my rental car reservation, for today at noon, expires Saturday at noon. I will not make it in time. Rental cars at DEN are completely sold out. Why shouldn't I be able to change my reservation to pick up on Saturday if I have it reserved for the whole time? And am willing to pay for the day anyway? But no, because they are sold out, I was not allowed to change it, online or by phone. "The system" prevents it. My only assurance that I will still have a car when I get there with a family of five is a one-line email from the local manager. I am taking a real risk of being stranded in Denver with no rental vehicle for a family of five. You cannot imagine my anxiety and anger over this, especially because Southwest blamed the weather when they cancelled this Friday morning flight on Thursday night, but there were only showers at PHL this morning and Southwest was responsible for 6 of only 8 inbound or outbound cancellations at PHL as of this morning. I will NEVER use Southwest again.

After a miserable storm chasing trip this spring (and nightmarish all night delay getting there - yes, on Southwest) I am about to quit any hobby that has anything to do with things like weather and travel that I can't control.


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[Brian G]

HRRRX will be temporarily extended to 48 hours starting tomorrow evening. It will model eclipse effects.

https://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/eclipse2017/HRRR-Eclipse_public-sb.pdf

 

[Dan Robinson]

James, that's awful! Do you have a Twitter account? Companies monitor tweets there and are more likely to see it if you were to publicly @ them with the problem. I have seen companies take action as a result of a Tweet that is public. as opposed to Facebook

RE clouds - still a nail-biter of a forecast from Nebraska to Illinois. I am cautiously optimistic of the trends on the NAM, but the GFS has been very persistent on storms along the MO warm front overnight/into the morning. A lot of the NWS offices along the path are issuing special eclipse forecasts in their discussions, worth checking out.

 

[JeremyS]

When's the HRRRx supposed to start going to 48 hours? We're within 48 hours and the 18Z only went to 36 hours and now the 19z and 20z only went to 18 hours


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[Mitch Magee]

First time post here.

I've been a member here for a number of years, but this has prompted me to jump right in. Keeping my eclipse contingency thoughts to my self is making me about to explode....

Since my eclipse plans for KC (i.e. observe totality from my backyard) seem to be going down the chute, my Plan B is to leave early/mid-evening Sunday to avoid the crowds (I can't imagine a whole lot of people will have the same idea), and hopefully arrive in west Kentucky by daybreak. Well, that's the plan for now. If I sit in traffic for a few more hours, I can listen to tunes and podcasts.

I'm thinking/hoping the clouds in KY will be limited to diurnal cumulus and perhaps a little cloud debris from the convection back home. I don't like any of this, but it's better than trying to see the sun through thick cirrostratus and possible storms. I heard about the possible rain in SE Missouri, but I think they are just playing with probabilities (which is prompting me into KY). If storm do pop up in KY, I'd think they would be limited to isolated. Of course, this plan may change with the next forecast discussion....

I know this adventure, with the lack of sleep, will be painful. But missing the eclipse would be more painful. After all, some travel all the way to Antarctica to see these.

 

[Adam R Davis]

You'd think with the eclipse falling on my birthday, I'd go out of my way to see it. I'll be in southern Indiana though, and that will be fine for me. I think 2017 overall has left me weary.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The NAM and NAM NEST are starting to fall in line with what the GFS has shown pretty much all along since 7 days ago, a disheartening mess of multiple MCS/stratiform rain activity from Nebraska all the way down to southern Illinois and western Kentucky. I don't see any "comfortable" zones outside of Wyoming (and points west) and maybe central Tennessee. A rather unfortunate turn of the outlook. There will be some breaks here and there, one will just have to hope to luck into one of those gaps.

 

[Brian G]

When's the HRRRx supposed to start going to 48 hours? We're within 48 hours and the 18Z only went to 36 hours and now the 19z and 20z only went to 18 hours


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I believe tonights 0Z run will go out to 48 hours. The RAPx also has the eclipse module in it. The 21Z run went out to 51 hours. It's plainly obvious based on heat flux and radiation products that the eclipse is modeled.

 

[Jeff House]

...Since my eclipse plans for KC (i.e. observe totality from my backyard) seem to be going down the chute, my Plan B is to leave early/mid-evening Sunday to avoid the crowds (I can't imagine a whole lot of people will have the same idea), and hopefully arrive in west Kentucky by daybreak. Well, that's the plan for now. If I sit in traffic for a few more hours, I can listen to tunes and podcasts.

I'm thinking/hoping the clouds in KY will be limited to diurnal cumulus and perhaps a little cloud debris from the convection back home. I don't like any of this, but it's better than trying to see the sun through thick cirrostratus and possible storms....

If you can leave earlier and get into Tennessee, go as far as possible toward or past Nashville. Forecast looks good here. I expect the HRRRX will punt that Cumberland Plateau TCU. Still pick a lower elevation either straight east of Nashville (Lebanon) or farther east in the actual Tennessee Valley. Kentucky could be smothered in high clouds, not a deal killer, but Tennessee looks better. Might look at Wyoming and far western Nebraska unless it is farther from KCMO. I have not looked closely at the Wyoming/Neb forecast. I will observe from Tennessee so I'm mainly forecasting here.

Sure would be nice if the eclipse had been today, Saturday. It was nearly clear from coast to coast. Breaks my heart watching the KCMO forecast go to the dogs. I grew up there. I learned about the eclipse reading a science book in the 1980s. Been waiting 30 years. While I was willing to travel I'm very thankful the forecast looks good in East Tennessee.

Best of luck to everyone from coast to coast. Still time for mesoscale miracles!