"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[rdale]

As a TV met who speaks around the country... I've never seen an entity other than TWC that scrolls SVS's.

 

[Bill Tabor]

I couldn't agree more with Mike Smith; the comparison to PDS watches hits the nail right on the head. It just seems like we're riding on a path towards a world where certain products (watches, warnings, outlooks) are used too liberally, or where multiple products overlap a specific event type.

As he also stated, nobody here is bashing anyone... Mike U and DDC did an excellent job and helped save lives. This isn't a debate about whether or not Mike U did the right thing - he did. It's a debate about the future of met products.

BTW... What is the criteria for a "Tornado Emergency"?

I think several (including myself) have iterated this already. Tornado Emergency should remain unofficial. However it should be left to the discretion of the NWS Coordinator in the hot seat to provide as much detail and call to attention as possible given whatever creative wording they can come up with. I don't think it should necessarily be a separate product - all that Mike did was find a way to emphasize to those out there in Tv and Radio land that something blatant and really bad appeared to definitely be inbound. Sure tornado warnings are serious and people should take them seriously. I think however in this occasion similar to other past occasions (such as Moore) Mike U recognized what was about to happen and did basically everything he could do! He told them this is it! The One, Death Walking, The End of The World For You, etc....this is a Tornado Emergency!

Certainly most events aren't this obvious or necessarily as destructive, and confirmed with ground truth in advance. This should be left up to the discretion of the NWS Warning Coordinator, any time they feel the need is warranted to use whatever appropriate language or mechanism they feel is appropriate to get a response.

So:

1) Not a new product...Just an extension of existing
2) Entirely case by case basis
3) Not official product (though I suppose it could be informal policy)
4) Up to the discretion of the NWS employee
5) Extreme wording should only be used in extreme or dire situations

 

[Jay McCoy]

As a TV met who speaks around the country... I've never seen an entity other than TWC that scrolls SVS's.

I know we have here in Amarillo for sure. I worked at one of the local stations for a number of years in the control roomand also in the wx dept running crawls and radar for the met while he was on air or setting his show. And before I was on the "payroll" I did it for many years as fun since my dad was the chief met there for 30 years.
we set the system up to automatically run all watches/warnings and can select other things to run once we are in "severe" mode such as supplimentary SWS's. Ofcourse if its the kind of situation where a tornado emergency is issued our met better already be on air talking about it or we have blown the coverage. I know in major markets its hard to cover 4 hrs of prime time programming with wx coverage because much of the public gets pissed but in this area and Oklahoma for sure its wall to wall coverage when its a serious situation.

 

[Shane Adams]

Maybe Rob Dale is asking the wrong question. Maybe it's not "Will the 'Tornado Emergency' warning dull the response to a normal 'Tornado Warning'?

Maybe it's "Will people look back on the events that carried the 'Tornado Emergency' warning tag and think "people died that day/night." (5-3-99, Greensburg)

You associate may 3 and now Greensburg with the RARELY-USED Tornado Emergency....you bet your a$$ people will sit up and pay attention. I don't see the argument.

 

[John Hudson]

I guess I'll throw in my 2 cents worth on this one. We had just checked into a hotel in Russell after chasing the Logan supercell, and the weather radio squawked out that warning.

The text of the message really commanded attention, and I suspect it sent many people in Greensburg high-tailing it to basements. If it did, it saved a lot of lives. Job well done.

John
VE4 JTH

 

[Robert Dewey]

... you bet your a$$ people will sit up and pay attention. I don't see the argument.

Maybe it's the same 'argument' affecting the very rarely issued PDS watch. Bill Tabor sums things up nicely... It really isn't an argument moreso than a concern.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I couldn't agree more with Mike Smith; the comparison to PDS watches hits the nail right on the head. It just seems like we're riding on a path towards a world where certain products (watches, warnings, outlooks) are used too liberally, or where multiple products overlap a specific event type.

I agree this is a concern, but there is one major difference between a PDS tornado watch and a "PDS" tornado warning: one is a prediction, the other is a confirmed fact.

IMO, the words "tornado emergency" should only be used in warning text when a confirmed large and potentially violent tornado appears to be headed toward a population center. Also, it should already be long-tracked and show no signs of lifting. Otherwise, you risk the potential of a tornado dissipating before it affects the area.

Also, I find it quite irksome that some on this board have insenuated that the general populace is stupid for ignoring warnings by going outside to watch a storm. Are you serious?! Before you became chasers, how many of you heeded tornado warnings? I didn't! I went outside and watched! Most people aren't stupid; they simply know that the NWS false alarm ratio is high. Plus, they just want to go outside to see a good storm like the rest of us!

I contend that, because of the high number of false alarms, the term "tornado emergency" is extremely valuable. It communicates a near-certainty that (unfortunately) can't be expressed with a regular warning (given the inherent uncertainty regarding Doppler radar indicated tornadoes).

Gabe

EDIT: I would be remiss if I didn't commend Mike Umscheid, NWS DDC, the local TV stations, and chasers, all of whom did an excellent job disseminating invaluable information on the 4th.

 

[Mike Smith]

but there is one major difference between a PDS tornado watch and a "PDS" tornado warning: one is a prediction, the other is a confirmed fact.

IMO, the words "tornado emergency" should only be used in warning text when a confirmed large and potentially violent tornado appears to be headed toward a population center. Also, it should already be long-tracked and show no signs of lifting. Otherwise, you risk the potential of a tornado dissipating before it affects the area.

I contend that, because of the high number of false alarms, the term "tornado emergency" is extremely valuable. It communicates a near-certainty that (unfortunately) can't be expressed with a regular warning (given the inherent uncertainty regarding Doppler radar indicated tornadoes).

Gabe

Hi Gabe and everyone,

I wish to comment on the items above...

A "tornado emergency" is not a tornado warning it is a severe weather statement.

It was not a "confirmed fact" Saturday evening. Great Bend is still completely intact.

If you are only going to push the "emergency" button when it is headed for a "population center" are you saying a human life inside a large city is more valuable than one in a rural area? If not, what is the point you wish to make? A 'tornado emergency' is a very short term prediction -- not a call for assistance after (where population density makes a huge difference as to the size of the response).

I believe it is the role of the NWS to give equal service to everyone regardless of where they happen to reside.

There have been multiple comments in this thread regarding false alarms and people going outside to look. The polygons cut the false alarm area by 70% which seems to me to be a major step forward toward improving warning credibility. Judging from the comments in this thread, one could reasonably assume few believe the polygons are an improvement or will be effective and we need to go to "tornado emergency." I'd be curious as to why there is apparently so little faith in the polygons.

Thanks, everyone, for considering my point of view. Look forward to reading your comments about the polygons.

Mike

 

[Joe Nield]

If you are only going to push the "emergency" button when it is headed for a "population center" are you saying a human life inside a large city is more valuable than one in a rural area? If not, what is the point you wish to make?

I believe it is the role of the NWS to give equal service to everyone regardless of where they happen to reside.

This is getting a little over the top. This has absolutely nothing to do with the value of human life to any forecaster, agency, or entity, and I think it detracts from what should be the point here. I think we'll all agree that the Moore tornado and the Greensburg tornado are perfect examples of when such a wording choice is not only warranted, but necessary. It would have been irresponsible of any meteorologist involved not to do everything possible to call attention to what was in no uncertain terms an extremely dangerous situation, even more so than your average tornado warning situation. Let's not act like there aren't grey areas and judgement calls to be made here. (Yes, we've heard the Great Bend, KS example. If that is the case, then, yes, that may have been the incorrect call, but not having seen the data or having been in the hot seat with the person who made the call, I refuse to criticize their judgement. As far as I know, they remain employed, so obviously someone trusts their professional opinion.)

Consider the following: a small tornado is sighted moving through sparsely populated areas of eastern Nebraska. Later that same day, a very large tornado with reports of catastrophic damage approaches the Indianapolis Motor Speedway during the Indianapolis 500. (This nearly happened on May 30, 2004.) Should the wording in the severe weather statements issued for each situation be the same, or should the meteorologist issuing such a statement for the Indianapolis area enhance his wording to convey the extreme threat to hundreds of thousands of lives?

An extreme example, yes, but this is a wording choice to be reserved for the extremes.

Standard disclaimer applies.

 

[Andy Rice]

Very interesting discussion...

First off.... the adding of the words "Tornado Emergency" on Friday was absolutely the right call and certainly saved lives. Much thanks to the whole system and people involved with getting the warnings to the people in Greensburg so far ahead of time.

I very much understand Mike Smith's point of view however.... since I am in a similar situation at a company that makes severe weather crawl and radar display systems for television. Dealing with the decoding side of the warning buisness certainly gives you a different perspective on all of it. The winter warning side is completely out of control... and while VTEC has very much helped the situation, there are way too many warning types for both Winter and Flooding.... and in the end too many warning types just lead to confusion. The severe warnings (TOR, SVR) are probably the only part of the NWS warning structure that has been made simple enough for the average public to start to understand.

I think the problem maybe is that Tornado Warning has lost some of it's power and fallen into the "Cried wolf" category.... so now it's Tornado Warning.... but this time we mean it.... Tornado Emergency. While this is a necessary thing to do in a situation like Greensburg, the root problem is that Tornado Warning has been issued with no consequences enough....that the public is a little immune to the sirens. And Mike S. is right though.... the WxRadios are not set to alarm for the SPS's.... although they probably would have gone off for the initial warning.

I am not sure what the solution is. It probably starts with the sirens being based off the polygons.... not the counties.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I am not sure what the solution is. It probably starts with the sirens being based off the polygons.... not the counties.

FWIW, in many places in the Plains, sirens are activated by local EMs when deemed necessary. Many EMs around here are pretty smart, and they won't activate sirens for a town that is likely not threatened, even though it may be in a county that is under a tornado warning. I'm not entirely familiar with the EM process (and I think it varies heavily from one city / jurisdiction to another), but that's always been my impression.

In my opinion, the main problem is an over-reliance on outdoor warning sirens. Many people, particularly outside of the plains, seem to think that no sirens = no worries. In the end, sirens aren't supposed to warn every in the community while in their homes. People need to realize that many siren systems are not designed to be loud enough to wake them up in the middle of the night. There provides one of the benefits of NWR / AHR. This is starting to digress a bit, so I'll point back to the main topic of the thread.

 

[Andy Rice]

FWIW, in many places in the Plains, sirens are activated by local EMs when deemed necessary. Many EMs around here are pretty smart, and they won't activate sirens for a town that is likely not threatened, even though it may be in a county that is under a tornado warning. I'm not entirely familiar with the EM process (and I think it varies heavily from one city / jurisdiction to another), but that's always been my impression.

In my opinion, the main problem is an over-reliance on outdoor warning sirens. Many people, particularly outside of the plains, seem to think that no sirens = no worries. In the end, sirens aren't supposed to warn every in the community while in their homes. People need to realize that many siren systems are not designed to be loud enough to wake them up in the middle of the night. There provides one of the benefits of NWR / AHR. This is starting to digress a bit, so I'll point back to the main topic of the thread.

I just I was just going by the siren out my window that goes off everytime there is a tornado warning in my county regardless of storm location. I'm glad to hear it's not like that everywhere.

 

[Mike Johnston]

FWIW, in many places in the Plains, sirens are activated by local EMs when deemed necessary. Many EMs around here are pretty smart, and they won't activate sirens for a town that is likely not threatened, even though it may be in a county that is under a tornado warning. I'm not entirely familiar with the EM process (and I think it varies heavily from one city / jurisdiction to another), but that's always been my impression.

In my opinion, the main problem is an over-reliance on outdoor warning sirens. Many people, particularly outside of the plains, seem to think that no sirens = no worries. In the end, sirens aren't supposed to warn every in the community while in their homes. People need to realize that many siren systems are not designed to be loud enough to wake them up in the middle of the night. There provides one of the benefits of NWR / AHR. This is starting to digress a bit, so I'll point back to the main topic of the thread.

It is also my understanding that there is some discretion with the EM systems on siren activation, but it doesn't seem to be the case everywhere. For example, this past Sunday around mid-day, there was a tornado warning that effected only a very small section of southwestern Sedgwick County, Kansas. I was watching streaming coverage of KSN and the TV met mentioned that the sirens were going off countywide, even including the city of Wichita which was not in the polygon. I wasn't there, so cannot vouch for this first hand; this is just what was conveyed.

When the polygons were introduced in 2005 (I think for one or two regions, but not all), at a spotter training session the NWS met out of Pleasantville, MO mentioned that one of the advantages of the polygon warning system would be to provide for selective activation of sirens by emergency officials for only the warned area. Obviously, there must be some legacy deficiency in the EM or siren systems themselves which prevent this from being a practical reality in all cases.

 

[Jay McCoy]

I can speak for my areas DEM which covers potter/randall county including Amarillo. for example if there is a tornado reported in southern Randall county near hwy 60 We will set off sirens for effected locations only such as canyon or dawn and not amarillo. On the other hand if a tornado warning is issued for or a tornado reported that threatens amarillo then we set off ALL the sirens in the city. If it may only threaten the NW side we will still sound them in the SE side. Tornado paths are unpredictable enough we wont selectively warn parts of the city. But we are are also very careful when we sound them. There either has to be visual sighting by one of our AES spotters or the NWS issues a tornado warning for the city proper. we have a DEM rep at the NWS anytime severe wx threatens the city so we have great communication bwtween our EOC and the NWS.

Unless we have multiple storms threatening seperate areas we wont sound them for the entire county.

 

[rdale]

I'm transitioning over to EM and have worked with them for many many years -- you'll find one county has a professional with a degree in business management or emergency management or the like, and the next county the EM is a friend of the county commissioner who knows less about a tornado than the average 5th grader... Some are weather addicts (Van Wert Ohio) while at Purdue I called the local EM when the neighboring county had a touchdown and was told "Look at the clock - it's after 5pm - so call the volunteers and tell me what happens tomorrow when I'm working."

Some counties have the ability to target specific sirens, many don't (all or nothing) or more likely they can alert just some - but decide to go with all "to be on the safe side."