"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[B Ozanne]

Out of curiousity - why do people think the warning process is something that should NOT be discussed? Are you saying that the methodology in place today is perfect and has no room for improvement? That seems like an awfully big claim...

I agree, that is what forums are for. Discussion and at times, civilized arguments.

People like Hitler can change the world when everyone just sits around with their mouths shut.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

This is a good discussion. I have posted some thoughts on my blog on how the integrated warning system worked that night... at least from my perspective working the event at NWS DDC that night. The GMA interview with Diane Sawyer seemed to focus more on "me"... and I just want to make clear that it wasn't just me that "saved lives".... the warning system saved lives. I think the "Emergency" wording just convinced more people to "act now!"... then to just look around, if you will, like someone mentioned.

http://www.underthemeso.com/blog

 

[John Diel]

Mike U has several times made the point "This was a TEAM effort". IMHO, this is where the team effort paid off. Whether the wording was something that grabbed the EM's attention along with the phone calls and reports, add to that the Media Coverage out of Wichita (no matter the station) and the spotter/chaser reports that were verifying the ground truth, it all worked out in this case. Everything came together and lives were saved.

Mike U. made a decision. He made this decision to get peoples attention. He made the decision based on what he was being told by several sources. This decision was relayed out to the EM's that actually press the button to get the sirens going and get people's attention to the fact they are about to be blown away.

The whole system worked out very well in this case. From public reports, to Spotter reports, to chaser reports to LE reports. To the Emergency Managers who were receiving these reports and sending them on. to the NWS in DDC that was reading all this information and making decisions and advising the local authorites. The system worked!

After having spent a big part of my life in Emergency Services, I am a firm believer in getting the public's attention using almost any means to do it. This was done. By wording, bt reporting, by blowing the sirens early. What ever it took and it worked.

Most of us here at ST, will not have an impact on the official debates raging over the wording. You can almost bet that this discussion is going on at some high levels right now. I hope that it produces a more extensive process in which to warn the public and continue to save lives.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am in firm agreement that tornado emergency issuances are of tremendous benefit...especially in severe wx prone areas where a tornado warning is so common April-June. Mike Umscheid and the DDC NWS did an excellent job with this whole warning situation not only for Kiowa Co., but also as things got further along into Stafford Co. where multiple bad tornadoes were on the ground simultaneously. Tornado emergencies need to be kept in the arsenal for those truly more dangerous and violent tornadoes when both ground chaser reports and radar are both in solid agreement. I had a bad pit in my stomach when I saw that slight jog on radar SRV to the north as it moved into Kiowa Co., and Greensburg was then decidedly in grave danger. Right away the tornado emergency was sent out...and surely that long lead time helped even the more skeptical persons get to shelter. Nighttime tornado on a Friday adds an extra measure of problems to factor in on this public danger situation.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Excellent points on the team effort John. When the chips were down for these people in Greensburg fortunately they had a guy with quality experience like Mike U behind the wheel and a large team / network of trained personel at all levels to help make the difference. This is exactly what all the training and drills are about.

Most of us here at ST, will not have an impact on the official debates raging over the wording. You can almost bet that this discussion is going on at some high levels right now. I hope that it produces a more extensive process in which to warn the public and continue to save lives.

Actually I'd say ST does have an impact on policy. Keep in mind that many / most policy makers such as those on CFDG are also members on ST and Wx-chase and monitor / sometimes partake in our conversations. Certainly good debate and points made here would be taken notice of, and can potentially influence policy even if indirectly.

 

[Chad Love]

I'm not a meteorologist, so quite frankly I don't understand the IMO meaningless esoterica some of you guys are debating. I will, however, give you the perspective of a journalist who has been in Greensburg pretty much constantly since Friday night and who has interviewed dozens of Greensburg survivors who have no amibiguity about the effectiveness of Friday night's tornado emergency.
Among other various and sundry freelance gigs, I write for a large national celebrity/culture magazine. They sent me back up there yesterday to collect survivor quotes for a photo spread they're running in the next issue. So for the past two days I've done nothing but hang out at the Red Cross shelter at Haviland and in Greensburg talking to survivors. Virtually every person I spoke with mentioned, without any prompting from me, that the warning from the NWS made the difference. One man told me without it they would not be here right now. Locals who said they routinely ignore and blow off tornado warnings said this one got them in the basement.
I really enjoy this board and I learn an awful lot, but sometimes the discussion reminds me of a quote I remember from a French history class in which an 18th-century French diplomat is discussing something with his English counterpart and exclaims "Of course it works in practice, but the question is, does it work in theory?"

 

[Mike Johnston]

A poster wrote:

"And very few TV stations scroll the entire text of the warning"

Local TV in every market I have ever lived in scrolls the text of warnings and have done so for years, so I'm not sure where this kind of assertion comes from.

To get down to it, warnings are a matter of practical communication of information to save lives and property. True, in more weather-wise areas, folks don't necessarily go directly to shelter every time they receive a tornado warning and remain there until the official expiration. However, it is a real alert and impacts their behavior - get your kid who is playing with a friend three doors down back home, look outside to observe the sky, tune into a trusted TV or radio source of information, etc. Also, the text of the warning is very important: people basically want to know what, where and when. A visual confirmation of a "tornado on the ground" 3 miles from your location and headed your way is much different that a doppler-indicated warning in an opposite corner of your county, even if you are located in the polygon.

As to the issue of this thread, I agree the term "tornado emergency" should not be elevated to a third-tier official product. However, I also believe NWS should have latitude to reserve this kind of language in the their statements and warnings. From the streaming coverage of TV KSN out of Wichita that evening, it was clear the text of the warnings - along with information from all of their other resources - influenced the sense of urgency and most likely impacted the behavior of their viewers. How many lives the exact words "tornado emergency" might have saved is a matter of speculation which likely cannot be proven or disproven. But, at the end of the day, it's all about communication and the wording used was certainly appropriate to the situation.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Virtually every person I spoke with mentioned, without any prompting from me, that the warning from the NWS made the difference. One man told me without it they would not be here right now. Locals who said they routinely ignore and blow off tornado warnings said this one got them in the basement.

THERE is the proof - right from the mouths of those who were impacted - it WAS the enhanced wording from the NWS that saved lives. This in itself is more than enough solid and concrete proof that the "Tornado Emergency" verbage WORKS. As long as it is used in this manner, saving it for the most critical times when there is a near 100% chance that the town is about to be completely blown away, what more can be debated?

 

[rdale]

"Local TV in every market I have ever lived in scrolls the text of warnings and have done so for years, so I'm not sure where this kind of assertion comes from. "

Again - most do not scroll the entire warning. Usually it's just the product type, the counties affected, and maybe the storm info.

But as Mike Smith pointed out - the TORNADO EMERGENCY was not part of the Tornado Warning product. And NO station in the country scrolls the SVS product that said EMERGENCY.

 

[rdale]

As long as it is used in this manner, saving it for the most critical times when there is a near 100% chance that the town is about to be completely blown away, what more can be debated?

An emergency was used the next day and the town wasn't even close to completely blown away - I think that's why there is a debate. And not to nit pick - but if they took cover based on the WARNING and not the followup SVS with EMERGENCY then I don't think that 'ends the debate'

 

[Jeff Miller]

Mike Umscheid had already stated earlier that the words "TORNADO EMERGENCY" were positively going on the crawl on the TV. Mike confirmed this himself. It is indeed THIS text that got the town to shelter.

 

[Mike Johnston]

"Local TV in every market I have ever lived in scrolls the text of warnings and have done so for years, so I'm not sure where this kind of assertion comes from. "

Again - most do not scroll the entire warning. Usually it's just the product type, the counties affected, and maybe the storm info.

But as Mike Smith pointed out - the TORNADO EMERGENCY was not part of the Tornado Warning product. And NO station in the country scrolls the SVS product that said EMERGENCY.

Sorry, I'm not sure what they do in Michigan, or what other support you have for your statement that "most do not scroll the entire warning." I guess I can only strictly speak from personal experience, but I have NEVER seen a scroll stating only: "Tornado warning, XXXX county, period, end of message." The prompt for the warning (siting or radar-indicated), the location, and the estimated direction and speed of movement are always indicated. Maybe living in Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina and Virginia across 47 years is too small of "sample size", but for some reason I'm skeptical of your assertion.

 

[Mark Farnik]

First off, hats off to Mike Umscheid and all who helped coordinate the warnings on Friday night from both the field and the DDC office. You undoubtedly saved dozens of people from terrible deaths.

Originally Posted by Mike Smith
With all due respect, I disagree that "tornado emergency" is a good idea and have since it was first tried in 1999. I speak from the point of view from someone who is actually in the warning business (i.e., we interface directly with those who receive the warning).

Mike, I could not disagree with you more. I think that the "Tornado Emergency" is an excellent idea and has proven both at Moore and at Greensburg as being EXTREMELY important in getting the general public to take shelter when a violent, dangerous tornado is threatening their community. Unlike what some of you have alluded to earlier in this forum, the public is not TOTALLY ignorant. Here's the thing: Tornado Warnings are issued all the time, so the general public has gotten used to them. But when they hear 'Tornado Emergency', they know it is a much more dangerous situation. The 'Tornado Emergency' is for all rights and purposes a 'PDS Tornado Warning', if you will.
I wrote a college paper earlier this year on whether my home county of Morgan County, Colorado was ready for a tornado disaster. As part of my research, I interviewed the County Emergency Manager as well as members of the general public. When asked whether they would react more strongly to the issuance of a 'Tornado Emergency' over a 'Tornado Warning', the answer from both the CEM and the members of the general public was a resounding 'Yes'. Quoting one of the civilians I interviewed: "If it's a Tornado Warning, why, we get those all the time. But a 'Tornado Emergency'? If they're calling it an 'emergency', it must really be a dangerous situation."
The bottom line in regards to this topic is this: The general public, while generally meteorologically ignorant, still understands the urgency associated with the word 'emergency'. Since it is not flung about like Tornado Warnings are and is only used in the most dangerous of tornadic situations, the term 'Tornado Emergency' is an invaluable tool in the NWS arsenal for alerting the public to seek shelter from these truly dangerous tornadoes.

If anybody with any sort of policy making power within the NWS is reading this, please take note of and consider the following:
I think it would be in the best interest of the NWS to issue the 'Tornado Emergency' not in a Severe Weather Statement, as they do currently, but as its own individual statement, like a Tornado Warning.

Burying such a critically important message within the text of a Severe Weather Statement is not only absolutely insane, it is the height of meteorological stupidity!!! The Tornado Emergency must be issued in place of a Severe Weather Statement in necessary situations , not inside it!!!

This also makes more sense because the TV stations are not going to want to interrupt their normal programming for a 'Severe Weather Statement'. For a 'Tornado Emergency', however, they'd definitely want to break in and have their respective on air meteorologists announce the emergency. The TV mets in OKC did this on 5/3/99 and it probably saved hundreds of lives.

Just the $0.02 worth from an amateur high school/college meterologist, but I believe this is a serious matter that needs to be attended to in a timely fashion.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The NWS statement, the media handling of the event, spotter verifications ... all of these seemed to play big roles, along with the precision handling of that radar screen.

We also can't forget the fact that local EMS literally gave their lives to protect the people of Greensburg. It's just heartbreaking to me that a local police officer has since died, after having received a head injury in the tornado. I'd bet anything he was out in his car with the sirens and loudspeaker blaring trying to use any means at his disposal to get people to take cover. Now that's a man in my book.

From the articles I've read, people really, actually were paying attention! One person said they didn't have a storm cellar, but they had time to get to their mother's house who did. Another said that everyone he knew got to the storm shelters in the courthouse and school. That's just amazing to me after having seen enough of these situations to know the chaos that is going on inside a community just before one of these monsters hits!

In all honesty, the warning system just plain old worked for these people on multiple levels. This is the way it could (or maybe should) work every single time. There are so many people involved and it is totally a community effort. It really makes me happy to call the midwest my home because there is definitely a pioneer attitude in these communities where people still try to look out for each other and protect their neighbors when they can. It's seldom seen elsewhere these days.

To me, the tornado emergency language served its purpose and worked as a link in a very long chain of important events.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Well it seems about 98% of us agree the "tornado emrgency" message was not only valid but critical in saving more lives in Greensburg. We can argue all day about whether every emrgency message ever issued verified but thats not the main point. No warning is perfect but if it is used rare enough for extreme situations it will continue to get people attention and respect and they will act.

Anybody who chases has seen and knows most people dont react to tornado warnings and instead run outside to see whats going on or jump in cars to follow us but most will react to wording like was Mike posted Friday evening. If not they are fools who are beyond help anyway.

And RDale your right many stations wont have their alert system set up to run followup SWS crawls (some do though) but the met in the studio will read it and tell the people about it like they did friday and it will go out on NOAA radio. There wasnt really a need for crawls anyway since most of the local station mets were on air live anyway and reading the SWS's, reports, warnings etc.. live while showing the radar. I dont know about Michigan but in places like Oklahoma, Texas, and kansas when there is major severe weather going on the stations drop all programming and do nothing but wx coverage.. sometimes for hours on end without a break.