"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[Jeff Duda]

June 5, 2010 was quite the day for me. I got married in Peoria that afternoon. During the time in which the supercell passed over town I was at my reception at a place called Ravina on the Lakes, located about as far west as one can go in Peoria (west of Highway 6 and just north of I-74 for reference). This place is surrounded on the south and west sides by tall trees, so there was no visibility of this storm as it approached. Thankfully, since me and half of my groomsman were meteorologists and chasers, we saw the cell on radar and warnings via our phones, but we never got the tornado emergency. The sirens were also hard to hear in our location. I stood outside for as long as I safely thought I could and watched the meso go right over my head (thankfully it was cycling at that time).

Anyway, Scott, I wanted to comment on your plight. Given your story, I can see reasons both for and against the issuance of the TE. At times there was a large tornadic circulation present and at times there was a damaging, seemingly violent, tornado present, but a single tornado with both of those characteristics simultaneously did not seem to exist. However, in the later part of your second video, the shape the wall cloud is taking on reminds me a lot of how the wall cloud looked right before the Bowdle EF-4 wedge. Given that small degree of predictability (there's no guarantee that such a tornado would manifest from that wall cloud, and it didn't) and the history of the storm, I could see how an NWS warning meteorologist at ILX could get very nervous hearing about all of this and pull the trigger on a TE. Obviously in the end, it still goes down as a false alarm, but the choice to issue was a toss up if you ask me.

 

[J Tyler]

I spent a full day in Greensburg this past spring with my wife and daughter. We spent the day talking to different residents about the 07 tornado. One of the main, common statements between Greensburg residents was, "The tornado siren going off here isn't that big of a deal, it happens all the time....but I've never heard the local TV weather man say it was 'A Tornado Emergency' before. That was what made us go to the basement".

I've heard the same thing about the May 3, 1999 Moore OK tornado. People talked about Gary England saying, "You've got to be below ground to survive this". That phrase from Gary made people stand up and take notice. Residents say they had never heard anything like that from Gary before.

Lets face it.....Joe Public is not reading the TEXT from the NWS office, and does not own a weather radio. BUT, when the local TV weather man in Kansas saw that "Tornado Emergency" come across, he passed that emotion and urgency on to the public. The Greensburg residents took shelter (from what they told me and my wife) because their local TV weather man said something they had NEVER heard before. *HE* seemed slightly shaken. That was what told them it was serious. Ask the people in Greensburg like I did. The NWS employee that made the decision to use "Tornado Emergency" that night saved many lives in Greensburg.

 

[Scott Sims]

However, in the later part of your second video, the shape the wall cloud is taking on reminds me a lot of how the wall cloud looked right before the Bowdle EF-4 wedge. Given that small degree of predictability (there's no guarantee that such a tornado would manifest from that wall cloud, and it didn't) and the history of the storm, I could see how an NWS warning meteorologist at ILX could get very nervous hearing about all of this and pull the trigger on a TE.

-- Jeff Duda

Thanks for the comment Jeff, and congrats on getting married. It did appear that it could wedge out, I agree, but it didn't look super strong and the line was catching up to this cell and starting to engulf it. We thought the meso was about to be absorbed and disrupted, and there were already so many eyes on it that we didn't report a fourth time.

Sorry to all for getting so wordy and defensive in these post, but a lot of things went down during that 30-45 minutes as you can imagine, and blaming the T.E. on the words 'large' and 'violent' in the reports seemed to be glossing over several other important factors that I am sure ILX had to consider at the time. I didn't even mention the numerous emergency vehicles that we saw(and the hoards I'm sure we didn't see) in that time frame that were likely reporting to someone as well.

I have been hoping that ILX based the TE more on the number of reports(cyclic nature) and whatever the control tower guys at the airport and emergency personnel saw more than my half hour old report with the erroneous 'large' word included.

Again, I hope my reports didn't add to any false alarms, but my reports couldn't(and shouldn't) have been the only factor ILX considered to push the button.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

Chaser reports definitely played a big role in the ILX TE, but I also heard that the IL State Police reported that Elmwood had been "wiped away", or something similar to that. I think that, in combination to the reports of wedges and multi-vortex tornadoes from chasers, tripped them over. I was sort of relieved in a sense when I heard that the decision probably wasn't 100% based on the chaser reports, as I did not agree with many of them based on what I was seeing myself. I stopped seeing the reports after Yates City was hit as I encountered lots of laptop issues, and went "old school" from there.

I may post more thoughts on this event later, but wanted to share that for now.

 

[rdale]

I spent a full day in Greensburg this past spring with my wife and daughter. We spent the day talking to different residents about the 07 tornado. One of the main, common statements between Greensburg residents was, "The tornado siren going off here isn't that big of a deal, it happens all the time....but I've never heard the local TV weather man say it was 'A Tornado Emergency' before. That was what made us go to the basement".

And that's great! But if the next time the TV weather man gets on the air and says "Tornado Warning" how will they react? Or let's take it the next step - what if the TV weather man breathlessly screams "TORNADO EMERGENCY!" and you go to shelter scared for your life -- and nothing happens... Then how do you react for the next "regular" TOR or a TE?

I haven't seen enough (well, any) social science research into the TE product. And the more it busts (and the bust percentage has climbed every year since Greensburg) the more it changes the outlook I think.

 

[J Tyler]

And that's great! But if the next time the TV weather man gets on the air and says "Tornado Warning" how will they react? Or let's take it the next step - what if the TV weather man breathlessly screams "TORNADO EMERGENCY!" and you go to shelter scared for your life -- and nothing happens... Then how do you react for the next "regular" TOR or a TE?

I haven't seen enough (well, any) social science research into the TE product. And the more it busts (and the bust percentage has climbed every year since Greensburg) the more it changes the outlook I think.

If you live in Kansas, or Oklahoma, you are under enough "Tornado Warnings" each season, that after 15 years of a tornado not hitting your neighborhood, you start to not be concerned when you hear the sirens go off.

The May 3 1999 Tornado in Moore OK.......That tornado had been on the ground for an extended period of time. TV News helicopters were following it, and it was a massive wedge. It is heading directly into a major suburb of Oklahoma City. This does not warrant another standard "Tornado Warning". This is a wedge tornado hitting a large city. This truely is a "Tornado Emergency".

The May 4, 2007 Greenburg KS Tornado......That was another massive wedge that had been reported by multiple sources, on the ground for an extended period of time. It was obvious on radar, and was clearly heading directly for Greensburg. If the TV weatherman had simply said it was another tornado warning, then the people in Greensburg would take it as being just like the previous 150 "tornado warnings" over the past 30 years. The town had not been wiped out before, why would this time be any different? Instead, they heard something different, because the situation was so dire, so clear cut that the town WAS going to be destroyed. It was correct to issue a "Tornado Emergency".

I think the problem is......According to the study in another thread, tornado warnings only result in damage to 1/8th of 1% of areas that fall under "tornado warnings". People in Kansas and Oklahoma fall under a tornado warning many many times per year.

BUT, how many times PER DECADE does an area fall under a "Tornado Emergency"? If they only hear it twice a DECADE, it will still hold special meaning for them. They will know that "This Time Is Different".

Now, I'm always open minded.....But, my wife, my 10 year old daughter and I spent that Saturday in June in Greensburg. The 2007 tornado is still very real to those people, and there is still a lot of raw emotion there. We hung out in the little restaraunt there, talking and talking. It was a -wonderful- day. But those people were clear to me that they were very thankful for the long warning they got from the weather service, they appreciated people like me and my wife (storm spotters), and that the man on the TV saying, "The weather service is now calling this a TORNADO EMERGENCY" was something they had never heard before and is what convinced them to seek shelter.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

I think there are other ways besides the use of a "Tornado Emergency" product to communicate the seriousness of these situations.

The thing that tipped me off to the seriousness of the 3/12/06 tornado bearing down on Springfield was that ILX turned off the automated voices on the NOAA weather radio and went live. I had not heard them do that in many years. That freaked me out more than anything else!

A couple of years later I was discussing this tornado with a co-worker. She said the thing that tipped HER off to the fact that this was not a run of the mill tornado warning was simply the attitude of the meteorologist on the local TV station she was watching that night... he was much more serious than she had ever seen him, and she thought he looked a little scared himself.

Maybe that is the real key here -- not so much whether we use the words "Tornado Emergency" or turn it into a formal NWS product -- as having local TV/media mets and NOAA weather radio announcers who understand what is going on, and can communicate to the public (in whatever way they deem appropriate) when things are getting extraordinarily dangerous.

 

[Mark Sefried]

I apologize to all residents of greater Peoria and the issuers at ILX for my wording on that report, but I don't regret making the report in general and trying to help the public. Hopefully it helped some people in Elmwood several minutes later.

--Scott Sims


No need to apologize at all as I am sure that it did in fact may have saved lives in Elmwood. I heared about the spotter reports 2nd hand from several sources and did not know who actually submitted them. For a tornado that was only 50 yards wide it was an intense little tube and at times in the video it did appear as if it could eventually have wedged out near Edwards especially if the lcl was a tad lower. I would have pissed my pants If I saw that myself considering that I live near Peoria and had numerous relatives that were in the storms direct path.