"TORNADO EMERGENCY"

[Andrew Stoller]

Ever seen a crawl at the bottom of your TV screen for a warning with NWS text?

Bottom line; it was the right thing to do to use the wording Mike used. It's a no brainer.

 

[B Ozanne]

Agreed that people got their info - but I never heard any of the TV mets I was streaming used the phrase "tornado emergency" so how do the people know one was issued?

They may not use the term tornado emergency, but they certainly have that data and will convey it to the public in a way they see fit.

 

[rdale]

What I am asking for is information on showing that the phrase "TORNADO EMERGENCY" saved people who would not have taken cover if only a "TORNADO WARNING" was issued. And how will Kansas residents react the next time a TORNADO WARNING is issued -- wait for the EMERGENCY?

TV Meteorologists aren't going to convey any different amount of information for an emergency than for a warning... We simply give out the info of what happened, what's going on now and what we expect to happen in the near future. And very few TV stations scroll the entire text of the warning, they used the VTEC codes which simply are for a TORNADO WARNING and don't differentiate for a TORNADO EMERGENCY.

I'm still curious B how you came up with the number of additional people who would have died had a warning been issued instead of an emergency?

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Agreed that people got their info - but I never heard any of the TV mets I was streaming used the phrase "tornado emergency" so how do the people know one was issued?

The one TV station we were monitoring in the office sure did. Absolutely did... like less than 30 seconds after we hit the "send" button. It's a two-way street... the NWS and the TV coverage. We rely on them for dissemination of warnings and to get their TV chasers' reports. I know for sure that the TV media in Wichita rely on the NWS for "the official word", if you will, and they need our LSRs from the reports we get that they don't.

Something to note as well and needs to be stressed... This whole thing was a team effort, not only in our office, but the entire integration of the warning system. While I was issuing the official products, one other person in our office was calling Kiowa County to let them know about Greensburg's threat. The bottom line is to alert as many people in the path of something like this and to engrain it in their minds that this is the real-deal and an unusually severe tornado.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Is there a topic on this forum that we can not bicker about... it saved lives, end of story. Why debate this to death? I know we're on some down time right now, but can't we just sit back, relax, and quit bickering about every single thing posted in this forum...

 

[rdale]

But don't you feel this will lessen the impact of just a plain-old Tornado Warning? And what about the Tornado Emergency that busts? Wouldn't that really throw a monkey wrench into the plan?

I don't consider a discussion to be 'bickering' -- I think both Mikes have valid points.

 

[Mike Smith]

All,

I know many EM, NWS and NOAA folks read this site and this is a more important issue than might be imagined. Please allow me to comment:

I agree Bill. If you sitting in Greensburg with the sirens going off, like they have probably many many times before (when nothing happened - radar indicated rotation etc.), wondering what the best course of action is, and your weather radio beeps and the wording states after declaring a large violent tornado is coming, THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY you're gonna take a direct hit, then it's a no brainer to use that wording under the circumstances of last Friday evening. People are gonna react to that in an instant! Mike U did an awesome job.

There are several points I wish to respond to:

Couldn't agree more that Mike and DDC NWS did a superb job.

However, unless you have your WR-SAME encoded system set up to ALARM on all severe weather statements (and no one that I know does), you would never have learned about the "tornado emergency." It was NOT a tornado warning. Look at the text:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
941 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

KSC097-050300-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-070505T0300Z/
KIOWA KS-
941 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

your weather radio beeps and the wording states after declaring a large violent tornado is coming, THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY you're gonna take a direct hit,

Except it wouldn't have beeped. This message would not have triggered NWR or any other alarm system (such as the coders for NOAA Weather Wire) to trigger because it is not a tornado warning. And, no one wants to be awakened in the middle of the night for a severe weather statement.

Even if someone had set their NWR for "Statements" the system cannot narrow it down to "Greensburg" -- everyone in Kiowa Co. would have heard it (see text above). So, to some, it would have been a false alarm. It is the polygons that are intended to make the warnings more location-specific.

The comment is made above about "nothing happening" with tornado warnings. This is true for two reasons. The countywide warnings were not geographically specific and our imperfect state-of-the-art. The polygon warnings address the former. We need to work on the latter as I said in my earlier response.

Believe me, there is a practical side to storm warnings and simple is better than complex. We hear that from our clients and the people we work with constantly.

Added complexity has unintended consequences. With regard to "tornado warnings with hurricanes" we told people to "go to the lowest floor" as a 30 ft. storm surge came inland during Katrina. Did that make any sense?

Flood warnings are way too complex. We added unnecessary, and sometimes negative, complications by issuing tornado warnings for hurricane-force winds (something that has been fixed). Lets not take a good system (polygon tornado warnings) that is a big step forward and add unnecessary complexity by adding another "layer" on the warning process without giving it very, very careful thought.

Mike

 

[Jay McCoy]

I tell you the difference between a tornado warning and a tornado emergency becuase I see it all the time and most chasers will back me up on this cause we have all seen it. Even the day after greensburg in Protection, Ks just about 15 miles south of Greensburg there was a tornado warning WITH sirens going off and what were the people doing as we drove into town?? standing outside looking around!!! When a tornado emergency is issued and it says a large tornado is about ti move directly into XXX then people pay more attention including those in the media who report this stuff to the public. The tv mets were on TV reading this emergency text and telling people to take cover now or else. Nobody was standing around ourside looking in greensburg. From what I have read and heard almost everybody had taken shelter which is rare. Friday in Arnett, Ok as we came through town with the tornado less than 2 miles to our SW coming right towards us and the sirens going off I swear at least half the town was standing around looking and the rest of them were jumping in their cars to follow the chasers!!

Most of the public has become somewhat numb to tornado warnings but when they hear something like what DDC issues with such strong language they listened and acted.

Mike U and his team along with the chasers and spotters reporting it and the media getting the word out all did an incredible job and saved countless lives. It is a miracle so few died with such utter devistation. This is one of the times the system worked perfectly. I dont think anything else could have been done to save anybody else.

 

[Johnathan Brouwer]

I agree with Tony, this is not somehing we should even be discussing. Whatever the wording, it saved lives and I thank the forecaster for doing it!

Instead of spending time discussing wording, use your time to give a donation to the American Red Cross to help the people of Kansas recover.

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm still curious B how you came up with the number of additional people who would have died had a warning been issued instead of an emergency?

It was a guess, but I feel it was educated. As there is no way to prove or disprove its effect.

Something had to drive down the death toll. Of couse the long lead times helped, but long lead times aren't that uncommon. Maybe it was the time of night. Most people were still awake and at home, not driving around town. I'm sure the sirens there are very good. The media coverage was also good.

And I feel that the tornado emergency was just one more factor that helped save lives.

I agree its a fine line between over warning and confusion

 

[Joe Zemek]

Well, why do we have PDS watches? Isn't a Tornado Watch good enough? To me PDS indicates a state of higher alert. To Mike U and others at NWS, a Tornado Emergency indicated greater threat than a Tornado Warning. Something people do not normally hear may be the thing that makes them realize this is not the skinny funnel that doesn't even scare em off the tractor, but instead a very definite killer coming to town.

Clearly it must be used very sparingly, but it is a useful classification. So long as the media relays it properly I think it has tremendous psychological value in moving people to take action.

 

[rdale]

Out of curiousity - why do people think the warning process is something that should NOT be discussed? Are you saying that the methodology in place today is perfect and has no room for improvement? That seems like an awfully big claim...

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I think it's just an attempt to punch through human idiocy. Many people on the plains will, upon hearing of a tornado warning, go out on their deck to check it out or just plain do nothing. The way most people see it, they get lots of tornado warnings every year and yet their home has never been hit -- so the warning is just a heads up to go look out the window and make sure everything's okay.

On other other hand, I imagine that watching Mr. Weatherman on TV read out that an emergency is being declared for your specific community and that a mile wide monster is headed right for your doorstep and will be there in five minutes... that will get people moving.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Well said Jay. I don't know why we are even debating this. Without a doubt lives were saved because of Mike U. When the NWS issues a Tornado Emergency bluntly saying that XXXXX is in the direct path of a large tornado, people will listen and act on that. I even heard that there was enough time for even the ederly to get to shelter, something that doesn't always happen.

Saturday we chased in basically the same area that was hit the night before, on Friday night, and even still - after a whole town just got demolished by a large tornado - we still saw dozens of people standing outside when the tornado sirens were blowing. We even had some local get behind us at one point and actually followed us for 15 miles.

And like Tony, I don't see why we are debating this.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Rock On Mike U!! Excellent job and call man. That was a monster storm as I was observing it on Level 2. It just doesn't get any more blatant than that.

With all due respect, I disagree that "tornado emergency" is a good idea and have since it was first tried in 1999. I speak from the point of view from someone who is actually in the warning business (i.e., we interface directly with those who receive the warning).

I disagree here Mike S... perhaps this should remain 'informal' jargon used only when appropriate in extreme cases, - such as above. However there was a Tornado Warning in effect, and special statements are also relayed to the media (where most people get the warnings). NWS officials have the discretion to put informative wording in a warning to describe and emphasize the danger to the public. If you will recall Moore F5 '99 Gary England and various news hyped it to the max and emphasized to scare the public in order to take shelter. I think some of this is certainly appropriate for the NWS. No doubt in my mind Mike's wording likely prompted some additional to take cover. How many more were saved? Of course this is indeterminate; however common sense and knowing how the public and media take warnings can help make a good educated guess. As others mentioned normally the public doesn't necessarily take warnings too seriously. However if the NWS puts additional emphasis on a warning this gets passed to weather radios, and to the media who dissimenate and often describe even more to the public. In other words this additional wording from NWS is the green light for media to take it to another level. In my opinion I certainly believe this makes a difference. Countless people will say it did with Moore as I understand.

As Mike U describes I'd agree this is and should be used for unusual circumstances, and should be the call of the individual NWS coordinator.