Tornado Climatology, Frequency, and Home Base

[Keith Mullen]

One thing I have been studying for quite a while, in anticipation of finally relocating to an area with better stormchasing options than Western Washington State, is the tornado climatology and touchdown frequency across the United States.

Based on Fifty years of reports and tornado paths, it's pretty apparent where the most tornado-prone alleys are (there really are "alleys" within tornado alley itself).

My question is, based upon fifty years of touchdown-precedence, I can clearly see where your chances of more successful chases may be, but I am not familiar with the topography (too many trees, hills, bad roads system, etc).

Based on your knowledge of chasing in the areas - combined with a good set of data based on averages (regardless of El Nino, La Nina, etc. etc.)...

Where would your ideal location be for Home Base when you look at the overlay of these maps??? *attached overlay map*

Much Thanks!

 

[mikegeukes]

I would recommend the state of Kansas, it is in the middle of Tornado Alley.
Good action for tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm winds. Plus you are in reach
of the Eastern Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and the Panhandle of Texas.

Salina and Wichita would be good cities to have as a home base.

 

[Keith Mullen]

Thanks.

I have been looking at: Emporia, Hutchinson, Mcpherson, and Ottawa for relocating. Small to mid-sized towns, affordable homes, very close to larger cities (for getting whatever/shopping for stuff), and nearly central from the most frequently severe weather. Not terribly far from anywhere... but then again, I haven't really traveled much further than an hour any direction from Topeka.

Weather permitting, it would be nice to have some weather for a change.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I'd go with Oklahoma or Texas, but I'm biased towards Texas Oklahoma I think is good because you're within good reach of most major tornado outbreaks, from Texas to Nebraska. Honestly though, anywhere from Texas to Nebraska and you're fine.

EDIT: As far as terrain is concerned, anywhere west of I-35 is fine, and once you get out towards the western parts of the alley it gets great, with no trees or hills for miles and miles. Eastern Texas and Oklahoma are filled with trees that make it very difficult to see, but I don't really know about eastern Kansas.

 

[Stephen Levine]

If I were to make a choice on tornado climatology alone, I would go with the OKC area.

 

[Chris Lott]

Thanks.

I have been looking at: Emporia, Hutchinson, Mcpherson, and Ottawa for relocating. Small to mid-sized towns, affordable homes, very close to larger cities (for getting whatever/shopping for stuff), and nearly central from the most frequently severe weather. Not terribly far from anywhere... but then again, I haven't really traveled much further than an hour any direction from Topeka.

Weather permitting, it would be nice to have some weather for a change.

A friend of the family lives in McPherson, and she says that tornadoes are "frequent" in her area in the springtime, so I can't wait to go visit! I think Kansas would be a good place to live, but also Oklahoma, being located in between Kansas, Colorado(which can get pretty active in the spring) and Texas, you're in a perfect spot to catch something. My wife also has relatives that live in Clinton in W. Oklahoma. I need to go visit people more!

 

[Bob Hartig]

According to your map, I see that there's a "Michigan Alley." I wouldn't pay much attention to it if I were you.

 

[Keith Mullen]

Michigan Alley

Heh Heh... What? You mean to tell me you aren't aware of the infamous Michigan Square? Kind of like the Bermuda Triangle - Only nothing like it at all.

In seriousness though, the map is an over lay of 56 years of each individual fujita scale touchdowns. So over the whole 56 years you can see where the collectively largest amount of touchdowns have been. Obviously west of the Rockies you can see just how pathetic our chasing is over here.

What I found most interesting is the areas that just seem to always get hammered: An almost due North line from the OKC area straight through to near Thayer Co. NE (sp?), Dodge City area, Denver area (MAN that area has some high touchdown density!), and another serious track that runs from Topeka/Lawrence KS straight Nor-East.

Initially I expected the end result of the map to just be a big wash - 56 years showing that most of "the alley" would even itself out over half-a-century...

...but I guess that's not the case.

Michigan - Here I come!!!

Just kidding, still looking at KS/OK...

 

[Chris Lott]

Texas usually leads the U.S. in tornado touchdowns, due mainly to it's size. The majority of them hit in the middle of nowhere so you never hear about them. Last years barrage on Kansas put them in the #1 spot as far as tornado touchdowns, and Arkansas had quite a few, and deadly tornadoes.

 

[Keith Mullen]

They do though don't they?

It seems that overall, the states just Nor-East and Sou-east of KS historically have a greater history of some of the more devastating long tracks... The line from OKC->Omaha has lots of moderate to severe (with some devastating thrown in)... the Denver area has gagillions of weak to moderately strong... of course these are REALLY broad generalizations of trends - so no need to flame

The other thing I've noticed is that over different decades (or sometimes shorter periods) different parts of the "alleys" run a trend of being the hotspots during those weather patterns, and others are dry... ...but all-in-all, over time, they seem to trade-off & cycle through which areas will take the lead for the next few years...

...and in the end, the paths the majority of storms follow - seem to run the same paths that have been followed years past...

Why wouldn't they eventually fill-in-the-gaps over time? Is there some geographical influence that causes some of the areas in between "alleys" to hinder tornadogenesis on some level? Not being from the area myself, it befuddles me to a point as to what influences the high-volume areas, and the areas with little activity, when there's many spots on the map where there is almost a clear and delineating marker between the two in such proximity (and sometimes a clear spot squeezed smack in-between two very high density areas)?

Perhaps it could just be a weather related fluke - and 50 more years will balance it all out?

Either way, I guess it keeps it interesting.

Estimated Time of Arrival: March 2010... Location: Somewhere between Omaha & OKC....

 

[Brandon Lawson]

My preference would be around Wichita, KS. It's as close as you can get to a hot spot for severe weather. You can easily venture into Oklahoma, and Nebraska and Texas aren't terribly far away, either.

 

[Patrick Romans]

I'm going to have to agree with Brandon. Wichita offers you a good road system in any direction and it's a short trip to any of the recent Kansas hotspots. Living in East Kansas I can tell you that the road system along with the hills and trees is no where near as chase friendly as areas west of I-35. I know Oklahoma is similar. I would much rather chase around Enid than Tulsa or farther east.

It seems that whenever I do get to chase I almost always end up somewhere around Pratt, Hutch or Dodge City which is not a bad place to be.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Why wouldn't they eventually fill-in-the-gaps over time? Is there some geographical influence that causes some of the areas in between "alleys" to hinder tornadogenesis on some level? Not being from the area myself, it befuddles me to a point as to what influences the high-volume areas, and the areas with little activity, when there's many spots on the map where there is almost a clear and delineating marker between the two in such proximity (and sometimes a clear spot squeezed smack in-between two very high density areas)?

Perhaps it could just be a weather related fluke - and 50 more years will balance it all out?

I'm sure you've heard of the proverb "If a tree falls and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?" Same idea with tornadoes. If a tornado touches down and no one is there to see it, does it still exist? Of course it does. But if no one is there to report it, then it's as if it never happened.

But at the same time, there's a misconception that the number of tornadoes is increasing. That's not necessarily true. The amount of reports has increased because there are more people out looking for them. Of course the number of tornadoes varies from year to year, but the overall average hasn't really changed.

Geography does affect where a tornado will form. That is why the Plains has so many tornadoes every year. But at the same time, a mountain, a river, or what not will not stop a tornado from continuing on its path.

Hope this helps!

 

[STurner]

I would say Kansas even though I am not extremely crazy about living here, but it does get a lot of strong/violent tornadoes and is located near a lot of states that get major tornado outbreaks. Kansas has also had the most F5/EF5 tornadoes since 1880 officially and unofficially.

 

[Keith Mullen]

Not too crazy about living there?

I thought Kansas was really nice when I went there on vacation - then again, I spent all my time around Lawrence and Topeka... and some folks there told me that the area really isn't "Kansas" & I would need to go a bit west to see true conservative Kansans.

Is there something about the area I'm looking at that should concern me??

Oy Veh.

But I think actually seeing storms might make up for what the neighborhood lacks.