samuel stone
EF3
101
2022 Stormtrack forecast contest - $100 prize
Stephen Martin
Enthusiast
141
Bobby Little
Supporter
136
Caleb O.
EF0
81
Noah Anderson
EF0
120
John Farley
Supporter
146
Matt Zumbrunn
EF2
125
Contest entry period is now closed
Looks like we had 20 entries, with most of them in the 100-200 range (slight clustering in the 120-150 range). Everyone has some space around their guess to work with, so now it's up to Ma Nature to sort out the winner.
Contest period starts Tuesday! I'll do my best to update the progress of this contest as the period unfolds.
Thanks for participating.
Looks like we had 20 entries, with most of them in the 100-200 range (slight clustering in the 120-150 range). Everyone has some space around their guess to work with, so now it's up to Ma Nature to sort out the winner.
Contest period starts Tuesday! I'll do my best to update the progress of this contest as the period unfolds.
Thanks for participating.
We are one month into the contest. While the official tally will not be available for months to come, I have begun a preliminary look at the tornado counts to give contestants a sense of where things stand.
The two sources plotted so far are the SPC LSRs and the preliminary counts based on me combing through NWS Twitter pages and PNSs to get a sense of what has actually been confirmed so far. I have done my best to merge tornado track summaries that cross CWA lines, but there may be some few-integer errors from what will be confirmed in Storm Data. You should regard the blue data as "close to official".
The 7-day running value is centered on the valid date. That is why you see the 7-day running total increase a few (i.e., 3) days before a spike in daily values.
The two sources plotted so far are the SPC LSRs and the preliminary counts based on me combing through NWS Twitter pages and PNSs to get a sense of what has actually been confirmed so far. I have done my best to merge tornado track summaries that cross CWA lines, but there may be some few-integer errors from what will be confirmed in Storm Data. You should regard the blue data as "close to official".
The 7-day running value is centered on the valid date. That is why you see the 7-day running total increase a few (i.e., 3) days before a spike in daily values.
I have updated the best information I can find so far through mid May. A lot of NWS offices don't issue PNSs for small tornadoes, so there are likely a handful of small-integer discrepancies in May so far, but those will not contribute to the winning value, so I'm not too worried about them.
The big spike from early April appears to have a strong hold on the potential for verifying, barring a big outbreak in June or sometime else. We shall see.
The big spike from early April appears to have a strong hold on the potential for verifying, barring a big outbreak in June or sometime else. We shall see.
The contest period is now over. Several months of the period have been entered into NCEI's Storm Events Database, so the official results are in through August as of now. I had previously reported an update on this that, regrettably, contained a substantial error that impacts the winning total. After correcting that data, I now post the official results below.
There were a handful of outbreaks in the fall, including an active time in December in which at least 90 preliminary reports of tornadoes occurred within a 7-day period. In December 2021 there were a few outbreaks in which the final totals ended up exceeding the initial reported totals, so there is an outside chance that a similar occurrence here could result in a competitive number to that March total. However, it's only an outside chance, and I suspect the 157 value will end up being the winning total. @Rob Herman, you're currently 1 away from that (wow, what a guess!), and you have a small amount of buffer room, so your odds of winning are looking promising.
Again, my apologies for the significant error in my previous message that likely gave some people false hope. I was pretty unhappy with myself when I discovered how off I was on my initial count. I can provide spreadsheets of the errant days to show the counts if anyone wants to see them.
There were a handful of outbreaks in the fall, including an active time in December in which at least 90 preliminary reports of tornadoes occurred within a 7-day period. In December 2021 there were a few outbreaks in which the final totals ended up exceeding the initial reported totals, so there is an outside chance that a similar occurrence here could result in a competitive number to that March total. However, it's only an outside chance, and I suspect the 157 value will end up being the winning total. @Rob Herman, you're currently 1 away from that (wow, what a guess!), and you have a small amount of buffer room, so your odds of winning are looking promising.
Again, my apologies for the significant error in my previous message that likely gave some people false hope. I was pretty unhappy with myself when I discovered how off I was on my initial count. I can provide spreadsheets of the errant days to show the counts if anyone wants to see them.
Codey Catino
Enthusiast
212
FINAL RESULTS
The contest is now over. The winner is @Rob Herman, who was off by just 1 tornado count (relative error of 0.6%)! Well done, Rob. I will contact you via private message to claim your prize.
Thanks to everyone who played.
The contest is now over. The winner is @Rob Herman, who was off by just 1 tornado count (relative error of 0.6%)! Well done, Rob. I will contact you via private message to claim your prize.
Thanks to everyone who played.
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