The impact of social media on storm chasing

It's interesting that I recognize a couple of those names from older threads here, so you're point is well taken. Having only been a member here for short time, it feels like there has been slight uptick in participation with respect to Event threads, so hopefully that continues. I know I've been trying to add to the discussion where my novice ability allows, and I'd encourage newer members to do the same, as it's a great way to learn from some very smart people.... even if that means getting things wrong, and being politely corrected.

I'd be curious to know the reasoning of why those individuals no longer post here, although I suspect Jeff is correct, and likes are the driving force. It could be as simple as a copy and paste from their original social media post, but maybe it's not worth the effort of keeping up with multiple communities, which I can also understand. I often wonder about people's reasons for no longer visiting here when it seems they were very active for a decent amount of time. I'm sure those reasons run the gamut of possibilities, but I have noticed a lot of last log in dates from around June of 2013..... I can only guess some of those were folks who became disillusioned with chasing after the events of El Reno. I find the history of this site and those who've contributed to it to be fascinating, and it shows that the overall activity ebbs and flows with the seasons, as well as with popular culture. If we keep enjoying the community we have here, I think it stands a good chance of holding it's own with social media.
 
For me, I'm more apt to post an offhanded or random comment on a setup on Twitter/X while reserving a more thought-out post for here. Maybe that's a perception issue from legacy rules? Agreed on that type of content being valuable here.

I think posting those things here might actually garner more viewers than on social media, given that people have to *follow you* on social media to see it to begin with. Much worse is if you're not a consistently-popular poster, the algorithm won't even show your post to most of your followers anyway unless they're one of the few that manually force-maintain the chronological timeline option. I think ST's stats might confirm my suspicion that many more people than we think are regularly lurking here.
 
Might not be true, but I'd have to agree that there has been a definite uptick in posts, not only vs recent activity through the winter season but I'd say compared to years past during active storm seasons and the number of different posters seems to be up. It's a positive sign and as they say when you're down four touchdowns at halftime, you don't get it all back at once, but one score at a time.

It's probably a bit of a vicious circle. There's an audience on social media waiting to consume what is posted, which encourages the posts. This place has lacked an audience, but with more activity as we've seen recently that audience is likely to grow if it isn't already because content is being offered. Veteran involvement is critical, but it's also just as important for recreational chasers, newbie chasers, chase-cationers, full timers and old timers, etc. to give input and not be shy about it. That audience and their response is what's going to encourage not only interaction and activity, but quality posts.

Again, you don't have to compete with social media, you can have an alternate entity that can co-exist with it and actually be more appealing if you allow it to happen.
 
A list of recent quality posts from one social media platform that I wish would occur here:

All of these posts have at least a dozen likes and some shares and replies. We just can't compete with that neurological reward-center activation. Le sigh.
Guilty as charged, although I've resolved to post more long form discussions here for Plains events I'm interested in this year (and have done so a few times already).

I try to keep short form, snarky, low-value, marginally rational bitching about the season like my post today off of ST. But, you can all rest assured that longer form versions of precisely the same thing will be forthcoming from me this week on ST. :cool:
 
A list of recent quality posts from one social media platform that I wish would occur here:
I guess we could post like this on ST, but I think the style of those posts are more suited to Discord or TwittX.

Some of those posts you featured seemed like they could go into an Event thread, but I would not ever think to start an Event thread for Thursday until it came into range of some of the higher-resolution models. (Maybe I disrespect the GFS too much.)

Anyway...2-3 days out for the past few events, even the NAM seems to show knife-sharp drylines with strong solenoidal circulations that promise "monster supercells"...only to see those drylines become more diffuse with time...the solenoidal circulations diminish, etc. That certainly inhibits hyping an event until it gets closer.
 
For me, I'm more apt to post an offhanded or random comment on a setup on Twitter/X while reserving a more thought-out post for here. Maybe that's a perception issue from legacy rules? Agreed on that type of content being valuable here.
Completely agree. Regardless of the official rules here, I'm not likely to do a drive-by snark post in an event or serious discussion thread here. I feel that's probably best for everyone involved, and in any case, it's not my style.

I think posting those things here might actually garner more viewers than on social media, given that people have to *follow you* on social media to see it to begin with. Much worse is if you're not a consistently-popular poster, the algorithm won't even show your post to most of your followers anyway unless they're one of the few that manually force-maintain the chronological timeline option. I think ST's stats might confirm my suspicion that many more people than we think are regularly lurking here.
You've just nailed what's driven me up the wall whenever I've attempted to treat Twitter/X as the public square of real-time weather/chasing discussion (which it unfortunately is, in many ways).

The vicious cycle we've lamented in this thread is so much more pernicious than it seems on the surface. It's bad enough that people are incentivized to stay on SM instead of niche forums. It's further bad enough that snarky, low-value posts on SM are the most reliably rewarded, tempting most people to divert a lot of their effort and attention toward making tons of those posts. But most depressingly, all of that is completely inseparable from the quality and tenor of the more serious weather discussion on SM, too.

See, if you don't snark and smarm and virtue signal and spend a dozen hours per week trying to ingratiate yourself into the #wxtwitter social scene, then even your high-value posts are almost invisible. Meanwhile, the popular accounts can post questionable "analysis," and it rockets to the top of everyone's feed within minutes. Said "analysis" then strongly influences the hundreds or thousands of newer, younger, less educated #wxtwitter users... many of whom get the impression from SM that a few popular accounts are unimpeachable authorities on the current state of the science. And they get that impression in part because even a lot of the true experts tend to fawn over them, almost as if the aura of Twitter popularity is an aphrodisiac not even PhDs can overcome.

To me, all this illustrates one of the most underrated dangers of modern SM: the ease with which the perception of credibility and knowledge in a particular field can be grossly distorted, usually by giving those outside a field the impression that expertise is highly concentrated in a few messiah-like figures who are good at gaming the algorithm and social dynamics. There are probably several hundred academics and research meteorologists in the U.S. whose careers have focused on severe convective storms. But for the vast majority of us, our content is overlooked when we do post, in part because the small handful of "social dynamics game winners" are sucking all the oxygen out of the room. It's not that I envy their online popularity; they can have that. It's just a shame that the serious side of SM is so tightly coupled to the parasocial, snark-driven side that tends to dominate most of people's attention spans.

In fact, this makes me realize this is probably a serious issue in almost every field (medicine, political analysis, you name it)... and that I'm probably guilty myself of giving the few accounts I follow in each of those areas undue credibility, rather than trying to sample a broader swath of experts. Yikes.
 
Brett's post above encapsulates and reinforces why I have never been on Twitter/X and never will. Their character limits literally force any post to be superficial, with no serious discussion or analysis. Which of course has the effect of encouraging snarkiness. I do post on Facebook, which I know has a lot of the same algorithms that limit who gets to see what post, but at least there is no word limit. That said, when it comes to weather, chasing, and earth science, ST is better than any SM site and is my first place to go when it comes to either posting or reading other people's posts about these subject areas. It is indeed good to see increased activity here this year, and I would like to think that this thread is part of the reason.
 
Brett, I'll admit I "called you out" (in a sense...I wasn't intending to be accusatory or inflammatory in the slightest) because I sensed you might respond here, hehe. But I'm glad you did, because you just posted some gold in here! I wish I could "pin" some of your responses quoted below to the top of this thread as a means of highlighting some of the best takeaways from this thread.
See, if you don't snark and smarm and virtue signal and spend a dozen hours per week trying to ingratiate yourself into the #wxtwitter social scene, then even your high-value posts are almost invisible. Meanwhile, the popular accounts can post questionable "analysis," and it rockets to the top of everyone's feed within minutes. Said "analysis" then strongly influences the hundreds or thousands of newer, younger, less educated #wxtwitter users... many of whom get the impression from SM that a few popular accounts are unimpeachable authorities on the current state of the science. And they get that impression in part because even a lot of the true experts tend to fawn over them, almost as if the aura of Twitter popularity is an aphrodisiac not even PhDs can overcome.
I have noticed this myself a lot. Twitter (and now that I'm on Bluesky, even there, too) tends to be full of posts by prominent accounts who live on out-of-context zingers. Such an ethos probably led to the proliferation of "_No_Context_YadaYadaYada" accounts on Twitter (and starting to see it on X, too). Sometimes the accounts are pretty tame and not full of high-strung, topical content. But many are. And if you're not up-to-the-moment informed as to what has gone on in popular culture or politics, you'll often have no idea to what the post refers. It's really annoying to have to try to guess what people are getting at. But the snarkier, the more attention it will receive.

Also great point about the dogmatism that arises when certain accounts become popular. People equate popularity with authority for some reason, and the filtering begins (i.e., anytime the popular account actually posts something factually inaccurate or out-of-touch, the "stans" rush to defend it anyway by attempting to force the inaccuracy to become the truth. That, or they tell anyone who calls it out a horrible name and to GTFO or otherwise flame them). So then even the true experts on a subject feel like they can't touch this popular account anymore.

I haven't noticed too many of the true experts fawning over popular accounts. Some here and there, but maybe that's because I make a conscious effort to keep my head down and resist getting pulled into the influence of those popular accounts. I started doing that in 2021.

To me, all this illustrates one of the most underrated dangers of modern SM: the ease with which the perception of credibility and knowledge in a particular field can be grossly distorted, usually by giving those outside a field the impression that expertise is highly concentrated in a few messiah-like figures who are good at gaming the algorithm and social dynamics. There are probably several hundred academics and research meteorologists in the U.S. whose careers have focused on severe convective storms. But for the vast majority of us, our content is overlooked when we do post, in part because the small handful of "social dynamics game winners" are sucking all the oxygen out of the room. It's not that I envy their online popularity; they can have that. It's just a shame that the serious side of SM is so tightly coupled to the parasocial, snark-driven side that tends to dominate most of people's attention spans.

Yes! OMG, Yes! And this represents such a discrepancy with the 1990s when the internet started gaining widespread usage and popularity. People called it the "information superhighway" because it opened up a wealth of knowledge to so many more people (rather than having to spend $1000 on a set of Encyclopedias or needing personal connections to experts, for example). With social media starting in the 2010s, the actual mass of "information" (in the sense of organized bits of localized negative entropy that are hypothesized to be inexorably destroyed within a black hole) has continued to rise exponentially, but the utility or knowledge component of that information has tanked. So much of what people post on social media is almost immediately of no use to anyone and is not worthy of being stored.
sideways dystopian rant; feel free to skip said:
But of course, the social media companies discovered that credit card companies, shopping companies, and malicious actors will open their wallet to this trove of useless "information", and so they began constructing O($100 million) data centers to store all of that crap on servers that companies like OpenAI later came along to use to train the first generation of impressively-able generative AI systems. I still say that information is pretty useless to humans, but this is the way the world is going now.

Getting back to my point - there is a lot of mis- and dis-information in all that information content being tossed into the servers of these social media companies. So, unlike the 1990s, the firehose of information coming at us is tainted with incorrect, misleading, or even malicious information, rather than the more encyclopedic knowledge that I believe would truly lead to an improvement in our society overall (rather than just making certain companies absurdly wealthy). And the sciences (even the physical sciences) are caught well within that web of tainted information. It sucks. It really does.
 
The illustrative SM posts that Jeff posted above may contain some credible insights, but they demonstrate even more the deficiencies of SM compared to ST. How much more useful would those posts be if they were long-form, and curated within a specific EVENT thread or the State of the Season thread? Reading a stream on X, one might see a post about Thursday, followed by a more general post about the upcoming pattern, followed by another post about Thursday, and maybe one about cats in between. Or, to others’ point, you may not see the posts at all due to algorithmically generated streams.

The bigger question is why some of those names do not or will not post here. It doesn’t even have to be instead of X if they love it so much; post both places if you want. It’s hard to believe that serious scientists need publicity or are motivated by likes. Author Cal Newport, who studies technology’s impact on culture, personally refrains from any SM usage and claims that when you produce quality work, you will be found by the people that matter. I seem to recall him citing a study that found no correlation between SM popularity and citations in scientific papers. There are lots of poseurs on SM, but at some point the quality has to be there, and true quality will be discovered with or without SM.

Further to Jeff’s immediately preceding post, now we have AI generated content based on SM crap content, and when we see it spit out by ChatGPT we don’t even know the source. We have no context at all to judge credibility.
 
Getting back to my point - there is a lot of mis- and dis-information in all that information content being tossed into the servers of these social media companies.
Totally agree.

Do people actually "trust the science" I think overall yes, but is it selective to your beliefs? - (generational question perhaps and topic-oriented Physics Vs. Medicine) so, unless the science has a twisted agenda tied to money or politics, "Science" should have NO agenda, except to do what it does best, remain skeptical, stop eating each other, argue, question, and prove your hypothesis with good quality data. The issue is, even in scientific communities, people are people, some want to pursue it for its organic way to solve a problem, others want money or power or status (I've seen this for myself). People look to experts, but some people pose as experts, and a lot of people are already brainwashed individuals bent on singular levels of thinking and SM fuels the speed at which it happens.

Define your expert- who is actually speaking, should there be grades on people posting? perhaps with a pinwheel of green to red things such as (intellectual, thought provoking, policy, science, entertainment), or maybe links to a Linkedin Bio so we get background pedigree information to include links to peer reviewed papers and articles they've published. People just assume too damn much and so many seem to fall on their own swords by assuming a post from a popular person means they know what they are talking about.

SM is the rifle to send that round to "influence kill" its enemy. that's what worries me about SM. it can very easily be turned into a tactic, technique, or procedure to keep people unsure, confused, and disoriented. There is a whole area inside the military specifically dealing with information operations and the role SM plays in it. I used to think that "educated" people where smarter to see through it. I no longer believe that's the case. it goes beyond the individuals alone, but its governments as well, and part of that to me, is the nascent effect of long-term SM usage at earlier ages, and perhaps the loss of a classical education.
 
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It’s hard to believe that serious scientists need publicity or are motivated by likes. Author Cal Newport, who studies technology’s impact on culture, personally refrains from any SM usage and claims that when you produce quality work, you will be found by the people that matter. I seem to recall him citing a study that found no correlation between SM popularity and citations in scientific papers. There are lots of poseurs on SM, but at some point the quality has to be there, and true quality will be discovered with or without SM.

I will push back on this to an extent, Jim. Scientists like myself are humans, after all. We are subject to the same cognitive biases and psycho-emotional needs as everyone else. After call, the late Nobel laurate Daniel Kahneman, who wrote the bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow, was remarked to have said something to the extent of, "I fall for these cognitive biases all the time, and I spent a lifetime writing about them!"

So it happens to us all.

I like the remainder of the information you provided, though. I had not heard of that author nor of the findings of correlation, but it makes a lot of sense. It touches on the nature that most of what is said on social media is pretty much immediate-term/instant gratification and useless.
 
The bigger question is why some of those names do not or will not post here. It doesn’t even have to be instead of X if they love it so much; post both places if you want. It’s hard to believe that serious scientists need publicity or are motivated by likes.

The answer is "truth."

Some of the so-called "big names" have made a substantial SM following (and/or livelihood) off hoodwinking people into believing a lot of very far-fetched ideas regarding their pursuits and work. On most SM sites, they are protected from inquisition or negative feedback by their fan base or people who are simply "unaware." On ST, I do not believe they would be as protected, and unlike the short half-life of SM, ST allows a discussion to linger for a more thorough examination. If I was in that position, I would be nervous as hell to post on ST.

A prime example of this occurred last year, when a well-known chaser ran multiple stop signs during a live chase in the deep south. This was mentioned in several SM posts, but the comments were immediately removed, or quickly became lost in the vastness of SM noise.
 
Lots of great points over the last few days in this thread, but I also think to some extent the short form of X has an appeal to many. There is only so much you can say 4+ days out and not risk looking like a fool. I think that is why we get a lot of "5 days from now looks interesting" posts even from real experts. Writing long form, which this forum is more suited for, takes a lot of effort and puts one at greater risk of being wrong. By the time one can make a skillful forecast there often is little time let to do so. From time to time some experts do post good post mortem threads on X which would likely be better posted here, but that isn't where their audience is.
 
From time to time some experts do post good post mortem threads on X which would likely be better posted here, but that isn't where their audience is.

That’s one thing I’d like to see more of here on ST - post-mortems… Not saying we never see them, but they are not frequent. Plenty of pre-event forecasting, but not a lot of analysis on why something happened the way it did. Understanding why something did NOT happen is a huge learning opportunity. I’ve often wished the SPC had a post-mortem version of the convective outlook, explaining what did or didn’t happen and why.
 
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