The impact of social media on storm chasing

[Jason N]

I had everything planned out in a completely different state. But then allowed myself to be swayed like that, to a place I did zero research on, or the road conditions,

I think your statement here sums up an underrepresented data point in many new chasers that rely on the Social media "group think", by virtue of social media clustering. When people center into regions that rely on 1 or 3 or 4 presumably more experienced or "well known" influencers or actual experienced chasers it does a few potentially critical things.

1. Those "experienced" chasers are doing what they do, with the experience they have. They aren't taking responsibility for the "Hoard" that follows them, but by virtue of being popular, it pulls in younger/less experienced people who just tag along for the group ride, and then others pile on based on clusters of data points on chaser maps or X, or (insert whatever mode of SM). Now it becomes a snowball of issues.

2. I am guessing they will be operating on the assumption that "you're safer in groups", which is a nice thought but, when its chase time and there's excitement tunnel vision, the only thing happening is follow the leader. or, some might get adventurous and say, "let's take that back road I see on the map without thinking. its dirt, it's gonna rain on it, you don't have the tires for it, "i'm stuck, we can't get out... crap we're screwed". I know for a fact that's happened, I've passed by many people experiencing that very thing, helped 1 or 2 out as well. Which leads me to....

3. Assuming someone is going to stop to help you out in an extreme situation. probably not in MOST cases when preserving life is a default measure for most people.

is the above description par for the course everywhere all the time? no.. but, I believe it to be more common than not. The bottom line is when starting out, be Risk Averse, study roads, stick to highways and secondary roads (paved) skip the dirt. take your time, avoid large groups. know some basic medical. stay 5 miles or more outside of the MESO at all times, don't chase storms moving faster that 35mph. and stop chasing after sunset.. you aren't good enough for nocturnal tornado chases, heck most aren't especially alone in unfamiliar areas/roads.

 

[John Farley]

On the aspect of this thread relating to revitalizing Stormtrack, the number of posts here tells me that, if the topic of a thread is of interest to people, there are still a lot of potential participants. Just look at the number of posts in the past week. It has been a while since I have seen this many on any topic, but if a topic strikes a chord, this is what can happen. What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. TA has, compared to the past, been a lot less active the last few years. Even on days when lots of people are out chasing, neither the EVENT nor the REPORTS threads are very active. Even on such days,, you just don't see much in TA. Now, as represented by the posts above about less experienced chasers just trying to follow Reed Timmer and others, I get that some might not want to post their forecasts in an EVENT thread for fear of attracting the hordes to their target area. Although given the nature and smaller number (compared to SM) of those who are active on Stormtrack, I do not know how much of a legitimate issue that really is. And of course, that does not explain why a lot of people do not post to REPORTS threads on storms they were on. I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not. And as others have pointed out, the organization of Stormtrack makes it much easier to later go back and find forecasts and reports for a particular day than you could ever do on social media Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

 

[Jason N]

On the aspect of this thread relating to revitalizing Stormtrack, the number of posts here tells me that, if the topic of a thread is of interest to people, there are still a lot of potential participants. Just look at the number of posts in the past week. It has been a while since I have seen this many on any topic, but if a topic strikes a chord, this is what can happen. What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. TA has, compared to the past, been a lot less active the last few years. Even on days when lots of people are out chasing, neither the EVENT nor the REPORTS threads are very active. Even on such days,, you just don't see much in TA. Now, as represented by the posts above about less experienced chasers just trying to follow Reed Timmer and others, I get that some might not want to post their forecasts in an EVENT thread for fear of attracting the hordes to their target area. Although given the nature and smaller number (compared to SM) of those who are active on Stormtrack, I do not know how much of a legitimate issue that really is. And of course, that does not explain why a lot of people do not post to REPORTS threads on storms they were on. I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not. And as others have pointed out, the organization of Stormtrack makes it much easier to later go back and find forecasts and reports for a particular day than you could ever do on social media Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

If I had to post "feedback" about the (Event, Target, and Reports sections), and "this is purely my opinion btw", I am not trying to hurt anyone's feelings, but it's feedback all the same. For me, I think it's the format of all of it that stops me from contributing more to it. I get the feeling by looking at it that its something like a WFO Discussion format...The Narrative with picture format takes time. It's after actions/post chase type of reporting/analysis and a lot can get lost between the time of the chase and the time you get done driving for the day, get settled, and make a post.

I would say if you are looking for more contributions, then the format of all of these might need to be modernized to include a pre-formatted and standardized set of maps, charts, say from SPC's Analysis page, or something like it, zoomed into the threat region, where you can embed your location, insert photo's where applicable, and add context to Microscale condition present at the time of the chase. Perhaps there is some kind of AI working in the background to feed the information once you tell it where you are, and what time it is, it feeds in the most relevant pre-formatted information as like a placeholder, then you add in context, any additional environmental information if applicable, insert pictures from gallery or live, then have a button that says "preliminary report" and "final report".. because you may just want to get something in fast, and then go back later to amplify what was going on at the time. People like maps and visualizations that direct you to areas, and then have the ability to click an icon for a report. I guess the challenge would be how you archive them.. Maybe similar to how SPC Archives their SR's. Just a thought.

I personally don't want to spend time recording information only to have to go back later to remember it all. Now, that might disqualify me from even making reports here because I do want to be as thorough as possible, but I think building in some baseline everyone can attach themselves to which might even increase the Quality of lesser experienced or knowledgeable chasers on here, that AI Preformatted report benefits them on some small level. Now, if there's an expectation and specific way of doing things. I certainly can respect that. This is just me spouting off a thoughtful idea/recommendation.

 

[gdlewen]

I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not.

I'm highlighting only a portion of @John Farley 's excellent post. The lack of reports is indeed a loss for the community. I like the long reports--I check the cities or routes, check the radar output from the chase encounter times, and try to decide, "Would I have been there?"

I tend to write long reports, mostly because I learn a lot from the post-analysis. (However: it requires discipline to post detailed analysis for this group because there's literally nowhere to hide the gaps in one's knowledge and experience--it's all out there, exposed for the world to see. You just have to hold your nose and do it anyway, in the hopes someone will find it useful, or someone will offer helpful advice, etc.)

 

[Ben Holcomb]

What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. ... Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

I want to wholeheartedly agree here. To be honest, it's really a pain (and a lot of work) to post pre chase thoughts and maps and what not, but it's so helpful later on down the line. We have more people out than ever documenting storms and no central place to collect that data that is easily searchable. This is the obvious venue for such thing. On my chase recaps, I try to link to a report thread and then post in the report thread to link my chase recap so it can be found later on.

It seems to go back to the fact that most people don't think it's worth the "effort" for the "payoff" because they aren't getting the dopamine hits. I always thought chasing was the way it was because of money. Pretty much everything in life is about the money. At some point, I have began to rethink. Dopamine hits from likes/shares, seeing themselves on the TEEVEE, being popular on social media, etc. seems to be a lot stronger than I had previously considered. I've heard it called "Generation Me" and it sure seems that way in all facets of modern society including chasing.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’m a real slacker when it comes to posting target area and post chase summaries. I’m too lazy about posting my target area. I’m fine with just calling out “Wichita Falls”, but nobody cares if you don’t at least post a couple of reasons why you are targeting there. It’s easier to do when you’re not actively chasing that day and really hard to do if you’re driving to your target.
Post chase causes a dilemma too. I always intend to better document chases, but in reality the day always turns into a bit of a blur with what roads I took and why. The only part that’s easy to recall is where the chase ended and why. Add in the fact that I’m one of the world’s worst photographers and a post chase description leaves even me disappointed.

 

[JamesCaruso]

On the aspect of this thread relating to revitalizing Stormtrack, the number of posts here tells me that, if the topic of a thread is of interest to people, there are still a lot of potential participants. Just look at the number of posts in the past week. It has been a while since I have seen this many on any topic, but if a topic strikes a chord, this is what can happen. What does perplex and frustrate me, though, is the lack of posts and discussion on the topic that is what Stormtrack is supposed to be about - actually chasing and forecasting and planning chases. TA has, compared to the past, been a lot less active the last few years. Even on days when lots of people are out chasing, neither the EVENT nor the REPORTS threads are very active. Even on such days,, you just don't see much in TA. Now, as represented by the posts above about less experienced chasers just trying to follow Reed Timmer and others, I get that some might not want to post their forecasts in an EVENT thread for fear of attracting the hordes to their target area. Although given the nature and smaller number (compared to SM) of those who are active on Stormtrack, I do not know how much of a legitimate issue that really is. And of course, that does not explain why a lot of people do not post to REPORTS threads on storms they were on. I know that, in recent years, there have been many people who do post on Stormtrack who were on storms on particular days, but never posted a report on their chase in ST. (Some did post in social media, others did not) And this lack of REPORTS posts on ST is a loss. I love comparing notes with other chasers who were on storms I was on, or chasing the same day but made a decision to go elsewhere. I think it is helpful in understanding what went on with the storm and why my chase strategy worked or did not. And as others have pointed out, the organization of Stormtrack makes it much easier to later go back and find forecasts and reports for a particular day than you could ever do on social media Bottom line, the participation in this thread suggests to me that the issue may not be so much getting more people to participate in Stormtrack as it is to get people who do participate to make it a regular habit to participate in the EVENT and REPORTS threads for days they do chase.

Well-said John. I agree completely. Like you, I also find tremendous value in forensically reconstructing a chase day (and figuring out how I screwed up!) by reading about the thought processes and decisions made by other chasers. The more detail the better, in terms of times, locations, roads, viewing direction, etc. The long-form chase report is becoming a lost art, and needs to be revitalized!

Having said that, and despite the fact that I generally enjoy writing and documenting things, I am guilty as charged, at least for 2023… I still have handwritten notes from my 2023 chase vacation that I intended to organize into chase reports for ST, but I never got around to it. Heck, I never even posted my usual seasonal recap summary (I don’t think there was ever even an overall thread for the “season in review” for 2023, like there was in other years). I will blame it on getting busy with work and other things once my trip was over, and lack of time. I suspect that’s the case for many. But it’s no excuse, because it’s a matter of prioritizing it and making time. I do still want to get my stuff posted from last year, just for posterity, even if nobody cares about 2023 at this point. And I’ll try to stay more current this coming year - let’s just hope there are a lot of chase days to write about!

 

[JamesCaruso]

there's literally nowhere to hide the gaps in one's knowledge and experience--it's all out there, exposed for the world to see. You just have to hold your nose and do it anyway, in the hopes someone will find it useful, or someone will offer helpful advice, etc

There’s no reason to worry about that Geoff. I can see being sensitive to that when posting a Target, but in Reports you can just post the facts - what you did, what you saw. Reading about mistakes helps others as much, or more, than reading about successes. You don’t have to post the meteorological interpretation if you don’t want to. Having said that, writing helps clarify thought, so it would benefit you to do that in both Targeting and Reporting, and you can always caveat things that you are not certain about so that a more novice reader knows not to take it as gospel. In any event, you know more than you think and should have the confidence to post it.

it's really a pain (and a lot of work) to post pre chase thoughts and maps and what not, but it's so helpful later on down the line

Agreed on both counts - a lot of work, but valuable to the one posting (for documentation, retention in your own mind, and clarifying understanding of forecasts and outcomes) and to the ones reading.

tter document chases, but in reality the day always turns into a bit of a blur with what roads I took and why.

Yeah, that happens to me too. I used to be better with that, especially in the paper map days. Now, more blindly following Google Maps, I’m not as attuned to the road names. I also used to be better at that when I was in the passenger seat as navigator; now, most often I’m the driver during the chase. My chase partners used to help recreate the path after the event, but that doesn’t seem to happen as much anymore. There is software to track and save your path; I tried that one year, but forgot to activate it half the time

 

[Dan Robinson]

My hesitation with posting in forecast threads is that paradoxically, the longer I chase, the *less* I feel qualified to post anything insightful or useful on a setup. Like most of us, I'm nearly completely self-taught, with tidbits of knowledge cobbled together from experience, academic papers, other chaser's accounts and some of the talks (Youtube, et al) by figures in severe storms meteorology. This results in my concept of the atmosphere being unrefined and in many ways flawed. I feel that any time I post something meteorological, there’s probably a lot of behind-the-scenes snickering at how deficient my grasp of what most would probably say I should have mastered 25 years ago. Though that self-consciousness may be irrational, it does keep me silent on days I might otherwise try to offer thoughts.

Some of that became evident to me after I started mainly choosing secondary targets closer to home in the Midwest over the past 6 or 7 years. I figured I had more or less “mastered” the primary targeting, at least enough to have some degree of success. But these secondary target days have really revealed the gaps in my knowledge to the point that I wonder if my past successes were more luck than any knowledge I thought I had!

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'd rather see someone trying to add something positive to the discussion rather than the hype we see on social media. I've seen some real gut busters over the last few years, some written by "climatology" PhD's who should stick to weekend corn festival forecasts. Last years forecast that May was going to be "out of this world," is a prime example. I would never put anyone down for trying to add to the conversation, as long as it's not hype constructed for likes.

 

[Mark Gressman Jr]

I think some of these ideas shared in the last few posts could even be part of a whole new thread for ways to improve engagement with ST, but it does go to show the benefits of social media... convenience/ease of use. But the thing to remember is, we're here for US..... fellow enthusiasts. I know there are certain expectations/rules to participate in TA, but it shouldn't matter how voluminous it is, so long as it adds value to the conversation, and you enjoy it. That's the difference between ST and social media.

Posting here is to be part of a dedicated community, for us and by us, for the betterment of the collective group. Where as, social media is best used for posting to everyone, for a variety of other reasons, but normally for the benefit of one's ego. If you keep your social circle closed and use social media for furthering business opportunities, it can be useful. But when you're posting to the masses, for maximum exposure, the quality usually goes down to the lowest common denominator, and the negativity typically follows not too far behind.

To me, that's really the most obvious impact on chasing... the division of the community and how it's portrayed... for good or bad. And that pretty much holds true for the rest of our society as well.

 

[JamesCaruso]

My hesitation with posting in forecast threads is that paradoxically, the longer I chase, the *less* I feel qualified to post anything insightful or useful on a setup. Like most of us, I'm nearly completely self-taught, with tidbits of knowledge cobbled together from experience, academic papers, other chaser's accounts and some of the talks (Youtube, et al) by figures in severe storms meteorology. This results in my concept of the atmosphere being unrefined and in many ways flawed. I feel that any time I post something meteorological, there’s probably a lot of behind-the-scenes snickering at how deficient my grasp of what most would probably say I should have mastered 25 years ago. Though that self-consciousness may be irrational, it does keep me silent on days I might otherwise try to offer thoughts.

Some of that became evident to me after I started mainly choosing secondary targets closer to home in the Midwest over the past 6 or 7 years. I figured I had more or less “mastered” the primary targeting, at least enough to have some degree of success. But these secondary target days have really revealed the gaps in my knowledge to the point that I wonder if my past successes were more luck than any knowledge I thought I had!

Wow Dan, that’s awesome, thanks for sharing that. I would never have thought that - I always considered you a proficient forecaster. I feel exactly the same way as you describe. After a similar amount of time chasing as you, I similarly feel that I should have mastered certain things long ago. Like you, my learning has been somewhat haphazard, through experience, trial and error, drilling down on a topic here or there, but not structured in an academic way, no semblance of a “curriculum.” As a result, many of my forecasts are based on intuition, which can be hard to articulate into a Target Area post.

I think there is a Dunning-Kruger effect here too - the incompetent think they’re competent, while the competent think they are incompetent. The more knowledge you have, the more you realize how much you don’t know, and the more intellectually humble you become (or should become - there are many in the so-called intelligencia or “expert class” that have no intellectual humility whatsoever - but I won’t go there right now ).

 

[Jonathan Scrogham]

Obviously there are so many downsides to social media, but one positive I can’t ignore is that it gives many more chasers the opportunity to make it their livelihood . I can’t imagine we would have as many full time chasers as we do now without social media, although I guess that is up to interpretation whether that is a good or bad thing. But there are people who have turned doing what they loved most into a full time job, and I think that’s pretty awesome. I personally would love an opportunity to chase full time once I’m old enough.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Wow Dan, that’s awesome, thanks for sharing that. I would never have thought that - I always considered you a proficient forecaster.

Thanks James - I had a "dream" run with tornadoes from 2013 to 2017 that boosted my confidence quite a bit, then the years following were full of failures that revealed I wasn't as proficient as I'd thought I was. My last good tornado day was Selden in 2021, and even that was more fortuitous than skill, mainly from my aversion to muddy roads making me not want to stay with the Leoti storm. The last two Plains seasons I've avoided goose-eggs, but not by much. It could be that I'm at that place on the Dunning-Kruger curve, but in some ways I feel like I'm near the ceiling of my ability.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks James - I had a "dream" run with tornadoes from 2013 to 2017 that boosted my confidence quite a bit, then the years following were full of failures that revealed I wasn't as proficient as I'd thought I was. My last good tornado day was Selden in 2021, and even that was more fortuitous than skill, mainly from my aversion to muddy roads making me not want to stay with the Leoti storm. The last two Plains seasons I've avoided goose-eggs, but not by much. It could be that I'm at that place on the Dunning-Kruger curve, but in some ways I feel like I'm near the ceiling of my ability.

With the exception of Dodge City in 2016 (and still missed Chapman), I had a string of goose eggs from 2013 until Selden. That’s seven years! (I didn’t chase in 2020.) I should have just hung it up for good… There were some bad years in there (or just bad patterns during my chase vacation), but most years there was at least one good thing I could have or should have gotten… You have to love the *process* to keep going in the face of that level of failure and frustration… I think chasing is like baseball, where a .300 average is still pretty darn good.

There’s no reason to think there is ever a “ceiling on ability,” especially with something like this, which doesn’t require any natural-born physical attributes like in sports. But at some point there might be diminishing returns in trying to get too much better (i.e., probably not going to improve that .300 average no matter what, simply due to all the reasons that even the professionals cannot forecast with 100% accuracy). Or maybe getting too into the technical details of forecasting is not fun for some beyond a certain point, and you’re happy with a particular level of proficiency for recreational chasing. This would probably make another interesting thread!