The Fiasco at Lambert Airport April 22nd

[Mike Smith]

I've talked about the disconnect between commercial aviation, the air traffic control system, and tornado warnings. I disclosed the issue in Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather and have followed up on my blog and on Stormtrack.

Now, the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang has done an excellent two-part series about the unwarned (to the pilots, passengers and staff) tornado at Lambert. If you are new to this issue, go here (which includes an interview two months before Lambert was struck): http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2011/05/more-on-tornadoes-and-aviation.html

Part one of the Washington Post story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ngers-off-guard/2011/05/13/AFYkhX2G_blog.html

Part two of the story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...rnado/2011/05/16/AFSFT14G_blog.html#pagebreak

 

[Todd Renshaw]

Thanks for that, Mike. The double-talk from the airport officials makes me a little sick, but hopefully some pressure from the article's negative publicity will help.

What I find particularly interesting:

Lea noted that tornado warnings can be issued for large portions of a particular county, and if the airport were to shut down each time a warning was issued - for a tornado at the other end of the county or for a false alarm - it would cause unnecessary travel delays.

In this case, once it became aware of a confirmed tornado on the ground west of the airport, the airport authority notified its emergency operations personnel, but did not have a chance to use the public address system before the tornado hit. Making an announcement via the PA system is the lynchpin of the airport’s emergency plan. “We did not get that information in time to be able to put out that alert,” Lea said.

So they're saying, (and I'm paraphrasing here), "sorry, but we can't announce the warning because it may be a false alarm and would cause unnecessary delays" but "by the time we know it's going to hit the airport, there's not enough time to make an announcement"?!?! Real nice.

 

[Dan Thompson]

Also, the new storm-based warning (polygons instead of entire counties) ensures that warnings are only issued for areas in the path of tornadic storms. The defense that they cannot shut down airports for "a tornado on the other end of the county" is invalid.

 

[rdale]

Also, the new storm-based warning (polygons instead of entire counties) ensures that warnings are only issued for areas in the path of tornadic storms.

Ehhh, well, in theory. And in many offices. But not all. Re: Daryl Herzmann's NWA talk. I'm not sure offhand where he has that online, but I'm sure it'll be at http://www.iowa-nwa.com 's conference page at some point.

 

[Alan Black]

Thanks for sharing these articles, Mike.

Lots of excuses and finger pointing in the article, but its crazy that airlines generally don't have access to this kind of weather information because its not "aviation related".

As for the airport itself, it seems they would have been better served by simply having a weather radio than having a weather consulting firm. With 34 minutes of lead time from the NWS the airport and/or the consulting firm should have had more than enough time to verify the threat and get people to shelter. I was watching the radar at the time and it didn't take much expertise to realize that there was a tornado headed straight for the airport, especially when NWS warnings had specifically mentioned a confirmed tornado.

 

[Mike Smith]

Thanks for sharing these articles, Mike.

As for the airport itself, it seems they would have been better served by simply having a weather radio than having a weather consulting firm.

Hi Alan,

You are welcome. I believe this is an important issue which is why I have worked on it the last two years. Wish I was more optimistic it was going to change soon.

Weather radios for businesses: We have a difference of opinion. The NWS issues warnings for the public at large and they did a great job in the STL Good Friday tornado.

However, businesses have very different needs than individuals. What AccuWeather does is work with the business to find out its unique requirements and tailor our SkyGuard® warning program to those requirements. Considering we are competing against "free," I believe it speaks very well to the ROI provided by our company.

Our company's (WeatherData/AccuWeather) tremendous success (95% client retention in the horrible economy of 2009, 98% in 2010) seems to indicate the businesses that use us value us.

Mike

 

[Matt Tottle]

Even in the age of polygon/storm based warnings, the warning mechanisms are still entirely county based. Weather radios run off the FIPS county codes, meaning if a warning is issued that includes just the southwest corner of X county, any radio programmed for X county will sound an alert. Now I seem to remember a while back the codes being extended by one digit, with each county being broken into 9 areas (NW, W, SW, NC, C, SC, NE, E, SE), and Zero being "the whole county".. It was supposed to work with polygon warnings to cut down on the falsely warned areas, but it does not seem to have ever been implemented.

Aside from that, even the 'higher tech' alerts like TV crawlers/EAS channel hijacking, text messages and "Reverse 911" go out to the entire county, not just the warned area. It remains to be seen if the new cell phone CMAS system is intelligent enough to exclude you from a warning if your phone's GPS puts you outside the polygon - it's still in development/testing. NYC is going to be the first live test market for it. It's also only compatible with new phones that have a special receiver chip.

I agree with Mike, it comes down to what fits the needs of the business. If you're a mom and pop shop who wouldn't really be disrupted by false alarms, then a weather radio would suit you just fine. But if you're in something like the manufacturing business (or an airport) where sheltering for a false alarm would cost you thousands or more in lost productivity/revenue, then you really need someone to keep an eye on the weather for you and let you know when the situation really requires action.

 

[rdale]

That isn't quite accurate. Siren controllers can be set by polygon. Reverse 911 definitely uses the polygon. Many commercial systems use the polygon. Most text SMS alerts use the polygon. And CMAS uses the polygon.

The extra digit in EAS didn't go anywhere because no warning ever fit in just one of the quadrants. That wasn't well thought out at all.

 

[Matt Tottle]

Siren controllers are usually activated by the local EMO or Sheriff's office. I know in most areas of KS when they push the button they activate countywide. There was a story on the news a bit back about how a couple counties are going to be upgraded so they can be controlled more accurately, but I think only Shawnee and Sedgwick counties (Topeka and Wichita) are happening this year.

As for Reverse 911, I guess it depends on the system, because I got called several times last year for warnings that didn't affect me, but were within the county. For SMS I used to use TWC alerts (until for some reason they stopped serving Sprint customers). They ask for the zip code, but they send warnings by county. Now I use KSN's text alerts and it works the same way. The warning crawlers on the local channels just say the county, and the EAS hijack (where your cable provider sends a command and your box changes to channel EAS and gives you the warning) happens countywide.

As for the extra digit, there are plenty of times where a 'sector code' would cut the false alarm area down. The entire warning doesn't have to fit inside the sector for it to work, it would just mean more data in the SAME header (since there could be up to 9 separate codes per county). But I would imagine that if there were more than 4 or 5 sectors, they would just warn the whole county. It would actually be most effective where the polygon only crosses a corner of a county (which happens quite a bit since the majority of the polygons are oriented diagonally, and the majority of county boundaries out here are square). It would prevent the entire county from being warned on a storm that is only kissing a corner.

 

[rdale]

Siren controllers are usually activated by the local EMO or Sheriff's office. I know in most areas of KS when they push the button they activate countywide.

Interesting... You'd think an area like that would be a little more proactive! But it all depends on what the locals want. If they are fine with countywide and don't complain, it probably won't change.

As for Reverse 911, I guess it depends on the system, because I got called several times last year for warnings that didn't affect me, but were within the county.

That is probably again a choice of the local EM (or whoever is in charge of it.) All the systems I looked at were polygon-ready, but could go back to countywide if desired.

Now I use KSN's text alerts and it works the same way.

Keep trying - there are providers out there!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm glad to see the Post investigating this and posting the article. I suspect you are correct that there won't be any major policy changes soon, but it is good that the situation is at least on record. I also submitted information about this event to several newspapers and press release agencies, but while we had a great dialogue and most reporters agreed with the need for change, they were skeptical of running a piece due to things the airport had stated and the simple fact that no one happened to die in this event, which appears on the surface (to those not familiar with the subject) to validate the FAA and Lambert Airport's position. The idea of false warnings interrupting the flow of business is discouraging. Since we're going that far, why not just stop issuing warnings altogether? I'm sure businesses everywhere will benefit greatly from the increased productivity and profitability. As suspected, this all boils down to one simple thing: in the eyes of some, money is more important than life.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Incidentally, one reporter happened to mention that there no evac took place at Busch stadium the night of this tornado (even though it was full of people), and that dangerous conditions were allowed by highway patrol on local interstates. St. Louis has no idea just how fortunate it was.

 

[Matt Tottle]

Interesting... You'd think an area like that would be a little more proactive! But it all depends on what the locals want. If they are fine with countywide and don't complain, it probably won't change.

From what I gather it has less to do with what the locals want and more to do with lack of money to upgrade them. The news bit pointed out the problems with countywide activation (general annoyance leading to complacency) as the main motive for the upgrade. But I'm thinking shelling out money for siren controls is pretty low on the totem pole when they're cutting school sports, music/arts, and teachers funding (basically guaranteeing this state will produce the second dumbest kids in the country behind Illinois) in order to shave the budget (but that's a whole other discussion).

That is probably again a choice of the local EM (or whoever is in charge of it.) All the systems I looked at were polygon-ready, but could go back to countywide if desired.

Not sure. I've never seen it in action but I know they use ADT SelectLink.

Keep trying - there are providers out there!

Honestly the text is the least of my concern since I'm not always at home, or even in my county. It's basically just a tertiary backup for me.

 

[rdale]

From what I gather it has less to do with what the locals want and more to do with lack of money to upgrade them.

There is a boatload of federal grant dollars out there... Ours are getting upgraded and the county isn't paying a penny.

 

[Mike Smith]

The idea of false warnings interrupting the flow of business is discouraging. Since we're going that far, why not just stop issuing warnings altogether? I'm sure businesses everywhere will benefit greatly from the increased productivity and profitability. As suspected, this all boils down to one simple thing: in the eyes of some, money is more important than life.

that dangerous conditions were allowed by highway patrol on local interstates.

I think it is interesting you are writing about the greed of "business" when Lambert International Airport is owned by the City of St. Louis (see: http://www.lambert-stlouis.com/flystl/about-lambert/ ) and the Missouri Highway Patrol is part of the State of Missouri.

In other words, these are government, not business.

It is my experience that most businesses are safety- as well as productivity-oriented. They have to produce value and do it well in order to stay in business. If you don't like the Microsoft OS, you can go to Apple or Linux. Don't like Pizza Hut? Try Little Caesars, Maggianos, etc., etc.

Government agencies, for the most part, have little accountability. If you don't like how fast the Missouri Highway Patrol responds to you in an emergency are you going to go to a competitor?

I'd like to respectfully suggest that all people posting here be a little more precise in their wording.