Bob Hartig
EF5
I have to confess that The Cap is still a bit of a mystery to me, moreso after a couple observations on some of the recent chase scenarios.
In determining whether the cap is going to be an issue, I've been using the 700mb chart to see what temps are like at that level, and/or whether colder (or warmer) air is advecting in. My threshold has been 12 degrees C, but I've picked up that to others here on ST, that's a bit high.
I'm also gathering that the cap kind of sloshes around between the 850 mb and 700 mb levels. That puzzles me, since I've relied on the 850 mb chart as an indicator of deep moisture, so it seems to me that higher temps at that level combined with good moisture would indicate good boundary layer CAPE, not CINH. Good Tds, higher temps, and reasonable Td depression at 850 mbs, with 12 degrees or less temps sitting on top or moving in have been part of my criteria, though now I'm starting to think maybe 10 degrees at 700 ought to be my threshold.
I understand that these things aren't hard, fast rules; I'm just looking to get a better understanding of the cap so I can fine-tune my forecasts a little more.
I could ask a number of questions, but what I've written above is probably all that those of you who respond require in order to give some helpful input. So...how do YOU work with the maps to determine whether the cap is going to be an issue, or perhaps an asset?
In determining whether the cap is going to be an issue, I've been using the 700mb chart to see what temps are like at that level, and/or whether colder (or warmer) air is advecting in. My threshold has been 12 degrees C, but I've picked up that to others here on ST, that's a bit high.
I'm also gathering that the cap kind of sloshes around between the 850 mb and 700 mb levels. That puzzles me, since I've relied on the 850 mb chart as an indicator of deep moisture, so it seems to me that higher temps at that level combined with good moisture would indicate good boundary layer CAPE, not CINH. Good Tds, higher temps, and reasonable Td depression at 850 mbs, with 12 degrees or less temps sitting on top or moving in have been part of my criteria, though now I'm starting to think maybe 10 degrees at 700 ought to be my threshold.
I understand that these things aren't hard, fast rules; I'm just looking to get a better understanding of the cap so I can fine-tune my forecasts a little more.
I could ask a number of questions, but what I've written above is probably all that those of you who respond require in order to give some helpful input. So...how do YOU work with the maps to determine whether the cap is going to be an issue, or perhaps an asset?