Jesse Risley
Staff member
As many of you know, the Target Area rules were restructured for the 2015 chase season. They can be reviewed here.
It has been suggested that it can be intimidating or confusing when posting in the Target Area, and while the new rules intended to simply this process and make it less of a quiescent sub-forum, it was also suggested that perhaps a few examples could be thrown up to show end users what a hypothetically solid post would look like in terms of format, content and substance. These are purely hypothetical - your post could be longer or shorter, just focus on substance, clarity and contribution of meaningful discourse relative to the intended purpose of the actual thread.
Exhibit A - Hypothetical "Event" post in the form of an upcoming severe weather event
2015-04-01 EVENT: MO/AR/IL/IN/WI/AR/KY
It looks as if the first major severe weather event for the Midwest is shaping up for April Fool's Day.
The last 48 hrs of model guidance suggests, with a relatively unhinged consensus, that a seasonably powerful mid/upper-level trough will swing out of the Four Corner's region, with an associated, albeit very stalwart mid-level jet streak (70+ kts) taking aim on the mid-Mississippi valley. A respectable SW jet will support the eastward development and propagation of a lee cyclone that deepens rapidly as it approaches southern WI by late in the day on April 1st. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will facilitate seasonably strong instability levels, with most major models progging MLCAPE values at or above 2500-3000+ J/KG juxtaposed with extremely favorable, volatile deep layer wind shear profiles of 60+ kt. A rapidly deepening surface low will enhance SRH values, favoring potentially strong tornadoes, especially across the northern portion of the risk area, southeast of the surface low and proximal to the surface warm frontal boundary.
Convective models also promote the rapid development and eastward propagation of a damaging squall line further south, into northern portions of Dixie Alley, as well as across the northern portions of the risk area as initial, discrete supercellular activity congeals into a more linear-based mode. Strong instability, large hydrolapses noted on forecast skew-T profiles among the ECMWF/NAM/GFS, and favorable freezing profiles, coalescing with deep wind shear profiles and strength of forcing will also promote an environment favorable for large hail and damaging winds, especially ahead of the surface cold front as the squall line surges eastward. Very strong wind shear and instability profiles across portions of MO, IL and southeast IA suggest the potential for several strong tornadoes too.
The user may also choose to interject a chase target here with a brief discussion of the area favored and why.
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Exhibit B - Hypothetical "Reports" post in the form of an actual, legitimate storm chase report or account, i.e., you actually chased something and you want to let the ST world know about it.
2015-04-01 REPORTS: MO/AR/IL/IN/WI/AR/KY
I targeted Pittsfield, IL and had a very successful chase day, chasing with compatriots Royal Payne, Jane Doe and Hiram Cheaper. We initially chose a spot close to the warm front, right on the nose of the optimal low-level Theta-e advection. Wind shear profiles across the region were quite impressive, with ambient SRH behind the warm front, and short-term convective guidance suggested the development of discrete supercells across northern MO by 19z.
We wanted to be in a flexible position to intercept the fast moving supercells in western IL as they matured, bounded by a good road network that offered flexible navigation options. Monitoring surface data throughout the afternoon, the forecast verified in that a subtle Cu field developed across NC Missouri and a small line of discrete cells fired across the warm sector and rapidly matured. We tracked a cell as mature and moved quickly ENE from Columbia, MO and was already severe warned when it crossed the Mississippi River. The cell was tornado warned within 10 minutes of entering Pike County, IL, and we intercepted the cell southeast of Hannibal, near Hull. A rapidly rotating wall cloud emerged from a partially rain obscured RFD region, and a weak tornado touched down near I-72. The initial tornado dissipated, but another funnel soon followed, which developed in a 15 minute, classic elephant trunk tornado as it moved across mainly rural areas of central Pike County. We followed the tornado until it dissipated northeast of Griggsville, dodging some 2+ diameter hail too. There were no major injuries reported, although the tornado did damage several farm structures.
Pictures and videos of the tornado and some of the hail damage are attached (submit attachments)
Youtube or Vimeo Link: INSERT HERE
It has been suggested that it can be intimidating or confusing when posting in the Target Area, and while the new rules intended to simply this process and make it less of a quiescent sub-forum, it was also suggested that perhaps a few examples could be thrown up to show end users what a hypothetically solid post would look like in terms of format, content and substance. These are purely hypothetical - your post could be longer or shorter, just focus on substance, clarity and contribution of meaningful discourse relative to the intended purpose of the actual thread.
Exhibit A - Hypothetical "Event" post in the form of an upcoming severe weather event
2015-04-01 EVENT: MO/AR/IL/IN/WI/AR/KY
It looks as if the first major severe weather event for the Midwest is shaping up for April Fool's Day.
The last 48 hrs of model guidance suggests, with a relatively unhinged consensus, that a seasonably powerful mid/upper-level trough will swing out of the Four Corner's region, with an associated, albeit very stalwart mid-level jet streak (70+ kts) taking aim on the mid-Mississippi valley. A respectable SW jet will support the eastward development and propagation of a lee cyclone that deepens rapidly as it approaches southern WI by late in the day on April 1st. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will facilitate seasonably strong instability levels, with most major models progging MLCAPE values at or above 2500-3000+ J/KG juxtaposed with extremely favorable, volatile deep layer wind shear profiles of 60+ kt. A rapidly deepening surface low will enhance SRH values, favoring potentially strong tornadoes, especially across the northern portion of the risk area, southeast of the surface low and proximal to the surface warm frontal boundary.
Convective models also promote the rapid development and eastward propagation of a damaging squall line further south, into northern portions of Dixie Alley, as well as across the northern portions of the risk area as initial, discrete supercellular activity congeals into a more linear-based mode. Strong instability, large hydrolapses noted on forecast skew-T profiles among the ECMWF/NAM/GFS, and favorable freezing profiles, coalescing with deep wind shear profiles and strength of forcing will also promote an environment favorable for large hail and damaging winds, especially ahead of the surface cold front as the squall line surges eastward. Very strong wind shear and instability profiles across portions of MO, IL and southeast IA suggest the potential for several strong tornadoes too.
The user may also choose to interject a chase target here with a brief discussion of the area favored and why.
===========================================================
Exhibit B - Hypothetical "Reports" post in the form of an actual, legitimate storm chase report or account, i.e., you actually chased something and you want to let the ST world know about it.
2015-04-01 REPORTS: MO/AR/IL/IN/WI/AR/KY
I targeted Pittsfield, IL and had a very successful chase day, chasing with compatriots Royal Payne, Jane Doe and Hiram Cheaper. We initially chose a spot close to the warm front, right on the nose of the optimal low-level Theta-e advection. Wind shear profiles across the region were quite impressive, with ambient SRH behind the warm front, and short-term convective guidance suggested the development of discrete supercells across northern MO by 19z.
We wanted to be in a flexible position to intercept the fast moving supercells in western IL as they matured, bounded by a good road network that offered flexible navigation options. Monitoring surface data throughout the afternoon, the forecast verified in that a subtle Cu field developed across NC Missouri and a small line of discrete cells fired across the warm sector and rapidly matured. We tracked a cell as mature and moved quickly ENE from Columbia, MO and was already severe warned when it crossed the Mississippi River. The cell was tornado warned within 10 minutes of entering Pike County, IL, and we intercepted the cell southeast of Hannibal, near Hull. A rapidly rotating wall cloud emerged from a partially rain obscured RFD region, and a weak tornado touched down near I-72. The initial tornado dissipated, but another funnel soon followed, which developed in a 15 minute, classic elephant trunk tornado as it moved across mainly rural areas of central Pike County. We followed the tornado until it dissipated northeast of Griggsville, dodging some 2+ diameter hail too. There were no major injuries reported, although the tornado did damage several farm structures.
Pictures and videos of the tornado and some of the hail damage are attached (submit attachments)
Youtube or Vimeo Link: INSERT HERE
