Subtropical storm Laura

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Good evening.

The National Hurricane Center is right now issuing advisories on subtropical storm Laura. I have been monitoring this cyclone with concern about possible hit at Northern Europe by its remnants. For example, GFS model forecasts it to hit as a strong extratropical cyclone early next week.

As of 11 AM EDT, 6 PM Estonian time, Laura is still a subtropical storm.

Wel'll see what happens and if its remnants are going to visit my neighborhood, I will keep you posted of the weather events.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Laura was just upgrade to a Tropical Storm- it seems that Laura (for the time being) has attained a warm core

 

[Thomas Spence]

Laura should be a very strong Extratropical storm hitting the UK at the end of the forecast period. Looks like the GFS has it interacting with another system once it moves over the UK and into the North Sea.

 

[Tim Kosier]

Looks like Laura center is starting to expand,is this caused from sea surface temps getting to cold ?

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Conflicting reports about the location of Laura's remnants coming out today. FU-Berlin's map for 00Z today places it over the North Sea while KNMI's Satrep places it approaching Iceland out from the Atlantic instead. Can any mets in this board figure out which is exactly what?

After taking a look at older satellite images from past few days, I am however increasingly confident that ex-Laura's circulation has decayed and the moisture from it has moved into a cyclone that is near Ireland right now.

 

[Gregg Gallina]

Tarmo,
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/movies/wm7vor/wm7vorjava.html

Is a good way to track the 850mb vorticity center... I have matched the center to Oct1 1800z images near 47N46W (white area).
Note this swings north into the larger upper low...but some energy shears out back into the main flow and melds with the Irish low.

Gregg

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Thank you for this information. I have eventually came to the same conclusion after taking a look of earlier satellite imagery at NRL's tropical cyclone web site.