Stronger NWS wording needed for freezing rain

[rdale]

The tornado comes with no warning (well, maybe a minute if you're lucky.) It's our job to say "Get to shelter NOW, you can't see it, but there's a tornado headed your way!" There's nothing you can do to prevent a tornado from hitting you.

Freezing rain happens outside your window. You know it when you walk out the door, even if you don't pay attention to the forecast. If you do pay attention to the forecast, you heard the "freezing rain advisory" and you planned. If you drive out and see it's icy, you change your driving or you head home. I have no problem (guessing) that a LARGE percentage of the deaths and injuries could have been prevented if people slowed down.

So with the Nebraska example Chris posted - the word got out. The freezing rain advisory was well advertised. I'll assume local TV mets talked about ice potential. But people still drove. I don't see any evidence that had the NWS issued a "black ice roadway hazard warning" that people who got into accidents would have not gotten into a wreck.

Regarding PA/WV -- I think there is no advisory because a warm front is moving the rain showers in, so temps climb through the 30's and 40's once the ice starts and then it melts.

But let's say it doesn't warm up fast enough, and people wake up to icy roads.

They will know it when they walk out to their cars and slide across the driveway, or have to chip it off their windshield. Then they can decide if it's worth driving or not. Any chance they might say "NWS didn't issue a freezing rain advisory last night, so I'm going to drive like the roads are just a little damp"? No.

 

[Chris Allington]

So with the Nebraska example Chris posted - the word got out. The freezing rain advisory was well advertised. I'll assume local TV mets talked about ice potential. But people still drove. I don't see any evidence that had the NWS issued a "black ice roadway hazard warning" that people who got into accidents would have not gotten into a wreck.

I think he has a point here. It was well talked about... road crews were out, and if anything people were like cool I want to go check this out. It was slippery and I drove slow and made my destination just fine with no accidents or spin outs. Just kept the car in low gear and let the engine slow me down rather than the brakes. Maybe the real issue at hand is peoples driving? haha.

You can harp about the ice on the roads all you want, but any normal person with any experience will know... hey the road is icy, I better exercise caution. People know its icy cause they don't just get in their cars and drive off. Like he said you have to chip off the ice and walk across the parking lot or driveway. Its more of a personal decision... 'Hey, should I really be driving or not?' then a responsibility of the nws to warn them. I think the burden in this one is placed on the individual, you need to know your own limitations when it comes to driving.

 

[Dan Robinson]

You know it when you walk out the door, even if you don't pay attention to the forecast.

The problem is that the worst-impact events is aren't like that at all. They're patchy - the ice isn't everywhere - just on bridges or at random spots on the road. Many times there are no indicators or warning signs that people can identify beforehand.

You could say that most tornadoes have plenty of their own warnings. Most supercells don't exactly come in quietly - there is thunder, lightning, hail, dark skies. More than enough for the average person to suspect something's going on and to turn on the TV or radio.

The more I look at it, the more I see no difference in public impact between these two hazards. Both cause death and injury. Both cause economic loss - 15 or so totaled cars costs the same as one average-sized house leveled. But both are not handled the same by the NWS, the media, or the general public.

Sometimes, like in the Omaha example, word does get out. But many times, it doesn't. Looking at the news reports out of Omaha, there were plenty of injuries and totaled cars. It could have been worse.

 

[Chris Allington]

Yeah... and people also know that when it is hovering around 32 and it is raining... they can expect ice?

EDIT: Most every car has a thermometer these days. Mine even flashes 'ICE Possible' in the mileage display anytime the temp drops below 36 at any point.

EDIT 2:

Sometimes, like in the Omaha example, word does get out. But many times, it doesn't. Looking at the news reports out of Omaha, there were plenty of injuries and totaled cars. It could have been worse.

A vast majority were seriously bad driving. This is Nebraska... people that have lived here for any amount of time should know what it takes to drive on ice and snow. Especially with the media hype we had most of the day. Even so, parents are allowing their kids to go to the mall and such here today. Thats not the media/ NWS's fault, its the lapse in individual judgement.

 

[rdale]

The problem is that the worst-impact events is aren't like that at all. They're patchy - the ice isn't everywhere - just on bridges or at random spots on the road. Many times there are no indicators or warning signs that people can identify beforehand.

What I'm trying to get across is that there are a LOT of times when patchy ice could be on the roads. If you issue a Death & Destruction Warning for EVERY time that could happen - well, there would be very few days that it's NOT in effect for many states

You could say that most tornadoes have plenty of their own warnings. Most supercells don't exactly come in quietly - there is thunder, lightning, hail, dark skies. More than enough for the average person to suspect something's going on and to turn on the TV or radio.

I don't see the connection... Hearing thunder and lightning is not a proxy for thinking there is a tornado coming...

But both are not handled the same by the NWS, the media, or the general public.

Because it's not needed. I interrupt Survivor because the tornado is coming NOW and you wouldn't otherwise know about it. I don't need to interrupt Days of Our Lives to tell you that when you drive on the roads, you might have some patchy ice.

It could have been worse.

But COULD it have been made better if a "black ice road travel warning" was issued, and TV stations went wall-to-wall, and sirens sounded? I've yet to see the evidence... That's all I'm saying.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yeah... and people also know that when it is hovering around 32 and it is raining... they can expect ice?

EDIT: Most every car has a thermometer these days. Mine every flashes 'ICE Possible' in the mileage display anytime the temp drops below 36 at any point.

That's true - and the 'ice warning' feature would be nice to see expanded. But most people simply don't make the connection between <32F + precip = ice. If they did, we wouldn't already have 244 people dead since October. No 32 people killed in one day. Those numbers say that there is room for improvement somewhere.

 

[Dan Robinson]

What I'm trying to get across is that there are a LOT of times when patchy ice could be on the roads. If you issue a Death & Destruction Warning for EVERY time that could happen - well, there would be very few days that it's NOT in effect for many states .

That's true for northern states. I'd think the criteria would be discretionary for different regions, just like they currently are for winter weather advisories in Louisiana vs Montana, for example.

Again, I'm not saying go insane with death and destruction warnings. I'm saying give this the same level of attention that a supercell coming through town gets. The human impacts are identical.

 

[Chris Allington]

That's true - and the 'ice warning' feature would be nice to see expanded. But most people simply don't make the connection between <32F + precip = ice. If they did, we wouldn't already have 244 people dead since October. No 32 people killed in one day. Those numbers say that there is room for improvement somewhere.

Then teach people how to drive. I don't see a way to improve the warning, especially in my example today. People heard about the news & advisory, they knew Omaha Police weren't responding to property damage only accidents because there were so many, they knew things were closing down but they still choose to drive. People had alot of indications that travel was hazardous, but they still chose to drive. There isn't a way to make people not drive, but we can prepare people to drive in the conditions and I really don't believe that it is by stressing the severity of the situation through wording that the public might see as just another weather service warning.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Then teach people how to drive. I don't see a way to improve the warning, especially in my example today. People heard about the news & advisory, they knew Omaha Police weren't responding to property damage only accidents because there were so many, they knew things were closing down but they still choose to drive. People had alot of indications that travel was hazardous, but they still chose to drive. There isn't a way to make people not drive, but we can prepare people to drive in the conditions and I really don't believe that it is by stressing the severity of the situation through wording that the public might see as just another weather service warning.

The key with the Omaha event is that it was already in progress before people started hearing about it. They didn't get a warning until there were already too many crashes for the police to handle. Those initial crashes are where the real risk is - people who have no awareness of what is happening. The fact that no one was killed in the more serious crashes was a stroke of chance.

I agree that driver education is half of the battle - just as it has been for severe weather warnings.

 

[rdale]

The advisory was issued at 10am, prior to the accidents.

Here's what is included in the text of the advisory:

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Seems to be exactly what happened...

 

[Chris Allington]

Our surface temp didn't really jump below freezing till the coldfront passed through about 1:30 pm.

 

[Dan Robinson]

How many of the accident victims knew about the advisory? How was the advisory communicated to the public, and how does that communication compare with, for example, the last time a tornado warning was issued?

Was the advisory reiterated as the threat approached?

 

[rdale]

The difference is that they knew there was ice on the roads when they started driving. It wasn't a shocker. They don't need an "advisory" to know that when you see ice on roads and your car starts slipping, that you must slow down.

I just don't see how sounding the sirens and interrupting all programming on TV and radio stations would make things better. I venture to say it'd make things MUCH worse.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The difference is that they knew there was ice on the roads when they started driving. It wasn't a shocker. They don't need an "advisory" to know that when you see ice on roads and your car starts slipping, that you must slow down.

I just don't see how sounding the sirens and interrupting all programming on TV and radio stations would make things better. I venture to say it'd make things MUCH worse.

I know of few cases where drivers were aware of ice and continued to drive at full speed. Reading the articles about the Omaha event, people were quoted as saying everything happened suddenly.

I'm not advocating sirens and widespread panic - just a stronger wording from official sources that matches the threat. Just as we do with tornadoes.

 

[Chris Allington]

How many of the accident victims knew about the advisory? How was the advisory communicated to the public, and how does that communication compare with, for example, the last time a tornado warning was issued?

Was the advisory reiterated as the threat approached?

Major headlines on every local media website read... "Freezing Rain Advisory makes travel Hazardous.' The advisory was disemminated on radio, local media, and both local and nws websites. Every local TV station had the little raindrop logo with bold text 'Freezing Rain Advisory' in the top right corner and a bar of cancellations on closures scrolled across the bottom of the screen. Overhead road signs on I-80 say 'Ice Possible- Slow Down.' Police sat on some major roads with their lights on to warn drivers to slow down... what else could've been done besides shutting everything down?