Stronger NWS wording needed for freezing rain

[rdale]

in any event, school buses should be kept in. We equip them with high-tech lights and gadgets yet send them out in the worst imaginable driving conditions with our kids inside..? makes no sense to me.

What I'm saying is that if the superintendent decided they needed to go out even though the forecast said ice was coming, he would have decided to send them out if the forecast said "road ice warning" too...

 

[Robert Dewey]

That being said, it couldn't hurt to reconsider the nomenclature. "Freezing rain" sounds pretty bland....

But the wordsmith in me can't help but think it would be easy to add more muscle to the verbiage. Not enhanced wording, just different wording. Why not have a "black ice warning" instead of "freezing rain"? That switches public awareness from a weather phenomenon to the immediacy of actual road conditions. I mean, "black ice" just plain sounds dangerous, right?

I agree with this. Believe it or not, there are still people out there who don't know the difference between freezing rain and sleet. They think freezing rain is just that - frozen rain drops (which would probably fit the definition of sleet).

Hell, I even hear people say "it's ice raining out."

 

[Jesse Risley]

Possibly, hopefully... there really is no way of knowing at this point but in any event, school buses should be kept in. We equip them with high-tech lights and gadgets yet send them out in the worst imaginable driving conditions with our kids inside..? makes no sense to me.

The whole school bus thing is a very difficult call for many superintendents. They have to base their decision on several factors:

1. How many kids will be at home all day without any meals until parents get home at supper time and/or how many kids will have no supervision? (an obvious parenting issue, but our district weighs this heavily with a >50% poverty populace)

2. What are the current road conditions in the city? In rural areas? What percentage of students are bussed from rural areas with generally poorer road conditions?

3. What is the weather forecast for the remainder of the school day?

You're never going to make everyone happy with your call when you're in their position.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I agree with those who say it is a matter of each individual's responsibility. I think the warnings and advisories that are currently issued by the NWS are adequate. If a freezing rain advisory or ice storm warning or winter storm warning, blizzard warning, or any of the other plethora of warnings that imply the roads could be slippery are in effect, a smart person would know to take it easy on the roads. Even if you told a moron, "HEY! The roads are going to be icy! Drive carefully!" he/she might still go way too fast and crash.

 

[Sarah Glenn]

From the OUN WFO:

Ice Storm Warning: Heavy ice accumulations will cause extremely dangerous and damaging situations, such as icy roads and downed power lines.

I am sure Norman is not the only WFO in the area that I have seen issue these. I am fairly sure I have also seen ICT, SGF, and TSA issue them as well. I know there are some inconsistencies between WFOs, but I would assume that all warnings are standard, as there is certain criteria for each. Although I guess something that may be seen as a "Winter Wx Advisory" in Nebraska would be equivalent to a "Winter Storm Warning" in Arkansas! So I suppose there are regional differences to consider as well.

 

[rdale]

Here is the official NWS wording for an Ice Storm Warning:

Ice Storm Warning
Ice accumulation meeting or exceeding locally defined warning
criteria (typical value is 1/4 inch or more).

 

[Jarrod Cook]

I see people keep mentioning using an Ice Storm Warning rather than a freezing rain advisory, etc. That is the problem with ice - it's different than other phenomenons. It doesn't matter if you're talking about 0.05" or 0.5" of ice, it still creates the same danger on the road. That is what makes this topic more interesting/challenging than snow or severe weather. Therefore, it seems to me the only real way to improve on the fatalities is education - but even than only gets you so far - the rest is just common sense. Some will drive on ice no matter what you tell them.

Also, driving habits only will help you to an extent, especially with black ice. You can be driving slow and in a straight line and if you hit a patch of ice you can still loose control of your car - it's happened to me before. Scary stuff.

 

[Paul Hadfield]

Perhaps it's pointless to be so bent over buses since obviously buses have been carting kids around for decades but a recent event was kind of was an eye opener to me at a time when i'm older and seeing life as a parent. Was reluctant to show this clip since I sound like a dweeb not to mention it's close to home. I'm not going to be here much longer so it's cool now. Prime example of what it is to be in a situation as what Dan mentions when otherwise, it is dismissed as insignificant. Bus episode is at the end and though kind of funny and minor, there were handicapped kids on board. Imagine if it was a ditch, bridge, busy intersection, etc.

http://www.vimeo.com/2464264

 

[rdale]

Prime example of what it is to be in a situation as what Dan mentions when otherwise, it is dismissed as insignificant.

So had their been a "black ice road travel" warning - the bus wouldn't have been out there?

 

[Paul Hadfield]

So had their been a "black ice road travel" warning - the bus wouldn't have been out there?

I don't know though perhaps stronger wording would've led to administrators using some common sense and least issuing a delay. To wait until temps hit 34 and above makes all the difference. "Advisory" just sounds so pansy like "don't forget your umbrella and galoshes". For example, a dense fog "advisory" is significant yet pales in comparison because at least at low speed, you still have contact with the pavement. Ice is just so under rated. A few years back when I was part of the beta testing team for the espotter program with ILX before it went public, I sent in an ice report. They in turn called my house for a testimonial. I was impressed then as is now because they all take it serious. Boils down to focusing public awareness as well as of that of those in charge of public safety beyond what is being done now.

Dan?

 

[Dan Robinson]

I think simply going from 'advisory' to 'warning' would be a good start. Before you can even start working on public awareness, you have to have the wording from an official source that conveys the danger. That's all I'm getting at.

We know (and have many threads discussing) that even with tornado warnings, a large percentage of the population will either not receive them or not take them seriously. But that's no reason to not issue the warning. The starting point, I believe, is accurately communicating the danger. This kills and injures more people than tornadoes - a fact that an advisory simply doesn't communicate.

Rob's right. Ice storm criteria is way too high to catch road dangers,- ice storms are in a whole other league. A millimeter-thick coating is all it takes to create the road hazard.

 

[rdale]

Do the research and I'll jump on-board with you, but until we can see some social evidence of change I have to say it's not a big deal. If we start issuing "black ice road warnings" EVERY time there's a patch of black ice, those warnings are going to pop up like flies... Then they'll get ignored. Then we're back to square one.

Right now we have a 'freezing rain advisory' with 0.05" of ice expected overnight. I'm not mentioning the advisory, but I am leading the show because of the potential. Should we call in manpower to be here overnight when the icing starts? Should we keep a crawl up continuously? How would you handle a case like this?

 

[Chris Allington]

R. Dale- we had the drizzle here in Omaha earlier today and got just enough to make everything an ice rink. It was actually pretty bad... alot of things were closed and my 10 minute work commute around 4:30 pm turned into 25 minutes.

 

[rdale]

...which happened with a Freezing Rain Advisory -- are you saying you would have stayed home had their been a "black ice road travel warning"?

I'm not saying ice isn't bad. I'm saying that we shouldn't go making new warnings up just to cover something that happens EVERY winter and is already covered quite dramatically by news and weather outlets. If you can show that lives would be saved by it - then I'll listen. But my experience says it's just another winter weather product. That's why we don't show NWS winter weather products in the first place. They don't tell the story any better than 3 minutes off the top of the show saying "ice is coming."

This kills and injures more people than tornadoes - a fact that an advisory simply doesn't communicate.

I haven't seen any proof that saying "warning" will reduce the deaths and injuries. Sort of like a Dense Fog Advisory. Do people care about that? No. If they go out and see fog, but there's no advisory, do they say "well the NWS didn't issue a DFA, so I'll keep the cruise at 70"? Or do they hear the advisory, look out the window and see sunshine but say "I'm not going to work today, there's a DFA." No and no. They use that as part of the decision process...

 

[Dan Robinson]

Should we call in manpower to be here overnight when the icing starts? Should we keep a crawl up continuously?

My question is, what is the difference between freezing rain and a tornado outbreak in terms of human impacts? Why are extra staffing and crawls necessary for tornado events? In both situations you have a weather phenomena that is directly responsible for death, injury and destruction. And the ice causes more of it than tornadoes do.

I'm not advocating shutting down a local area for an ice threat - I'm saying get the word out so that people are more acutely aware of the situation. That's what is done for a tornado outbreak, and I'm assuming it's done because it's effective. So why not for this?

Case in point - look at the obs over WV/PA right now and the KJKL radar. Temps are in the 20s in central/northern WV and PA with rain moving in. No advisories, warnings, nothing for that area. One may be issued later tonight, but everyone's in bed now. When people wake up there tomorrow they will have no clue what they may be facing.