Storm chasing may be suspended

[Brandon Ivey]

I agree with everyone that gas prices have had a major effect on this years chase season. I used to chase solo during past chase seasons, but joined up with a friend (who also chases) this season. We split the cost of fueling up and this has helped a lot.

This is my plan for next chase season. Starting in July, I am going to have $50.00/week deducted out of my paycheck and sent directly into a savings account. This will be strictly for my "2009 gas chasing fund". Once I get used to the extra $50/wk. not being there, it will not be a big deal. Then I will have a stockpile of money for next spring to help the oil companies get richer. By March of 2009, I figure I will have around a $2,000 gas fund for next spring and then I won't have to take it from my family budget and starve my children to chase anymore....lol. J/K

 

[Chris Frost]

Hmm...could give a whole new meaning to the term cap bust! lol

Obviously, a "cap" would never work. Wouldn't that make the dollar that much weaker? However if it ever comes to gas ever being rationed...well then I'm investing in an industrial-sized underground storage tank. Anyway, I wouldn't worry now anyway. It probably wouldn't happen in the near future and I really can't find anything on this story, but I haven't really searched that hard.

I guess if it gets real bad though, I'll just revert to my former self and rope tornadoes on my trusty steed!

Just can't ever see the cap happening...

 

[Robb Ellis]

The comments from meteorologists most respected on the topic of hurricanes (Bill Gray, Joe Bastardi, NHC)

Something fundamentally bothers me about the order and list there. William Gray, while an innovator of the tropical long-range forecasting science has little hard evidence that his methods are providing any value. Statistically they seem insignificant to me. And I can't remember a year when anything other than an *above normal* year has been forecast. Anyone have a link to his past forecasts? I'd love to take a look at a comparison.

Joe Bastardi is a completely different story altogether.

NHC does a great job of keeping perspective on things. They know the value (or lack of value?) in a season forecast (even their own/NOAA's).

I've always felt a little uneasy about season forecasts. And even recently the AP has issued a press release that the forecasts provide little value.

Just out of curiousity, are their Severe Weather Season outlooks posted by any entities? And would any of you think they could be possible/worthwhile/accurate?

I'm open to changing my mind on the subject, if I had more data.

 

[KMcCallister]

A slight possibility exists that all storm chasing may be suspended due to no gas available. A bill is being considered by congress that would cap gas prices at $2.40 /gal. If this bill passes and goes into effect most gas stations would close, no gas would be available and the few gas stations that had any gas would have such long gas lines that getting gas for chasing would be extremely difficult. Remember the long gas lines of the 70's during the term of Richard Nixon and what caused them? Nixon established wage and price controls on many things including gasoline. With prices capped, no gas.

Let's hope our government isn't so stupid as to try to control this part of our economy. I'd much rather pay $6 a gallon for gas and have it available than hope I can find some of the capped gas at $2.49. Let the market determine the price.

 

[Jason Foster]

Road Warrior

Like there is a chance in hell of this bill happening. Just some politician trying to bring attention to himself, or make his district think he's actually concerned about gas prices.

But should gas become very limited, I'm prepared to put on my black leather suit, and paint my car flat black, put a fake blower sticking out the hood and call myself the "Weather Road Warrior". So who wants to play the bad guy?

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

A local TV met up here has a blog and he references a guy who has done a near-flawless job of gas price predictions...

http://blogs.woodtv.com/?cat=1

Summer 2008 outlook from Patrick (and a little from Bill at the end):
Gasoline:
Gas reset to $4.19 Friday AM 5/30. Late May prices peak to $4.15+, slowly decline into early-to-mid June, perhaps as low as $3. Early July will have much of the same, people will be rejoicing when prices come under $3, but that doesn’t look entirely realistic as hurricane season approaches. Traders will begin focusing on any hurricane that develops, and starting in mid-August, we’ll see prices fluctuate quite a bit. If any Category 3 or higher hurricane strikes West of the Mississippi in the Gulf, expect gasoline to jump right back to Spring highs or even higher. If the 2008 hurricane season is a non-event, expect market fundamentals to kick in and we may see a large correction in gasoline prices. I think that with demand slowing late Summer and oil prices due to come back down, it will boost crack profit, which will entice refiners to make utilization rates climb all summer leading to a potential collapse in prices this fall/winter- perhaps as low as $2.50 starting in October and lasting through mid-November.

Bill Says: I think the hurricane season will start early and be significantly more intense (not as bad as 2005, though) than each of the last two years. I think the western Gulf is vulnerable. Water temperatures are a little warmer than average and it’s been hot in Texas (102 in Laredo yesterday). Because of this, I can’t see gasoline dropping to $3. The comments from meteorologists most respected on the topic of hurricanes (Bill Gray, Joe Bastardi, NHC) will cause speculators to keep the price from falling too much (not below $3.60?). When (not if) the first hurricane threatens Gulf oil…the oil companies will look real bad if they jump the price up too far too fast. However, up they will go. Regarding canceling vacations…I think West Michigan is a great place to vacation - I travel to see relatives…other than that, I spend my time close to home.

We're screwed forever at this point. $134/barrel was huge yesterday.....today? $139

http://www.reuters.com/article/topN...?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

It's funny when this big climb started a few months ago, some "good forecasting group" had to raise their outlook to a "whopping" $137 by 2012. That had to be less than 6 months ago I read that. $137/barrel was supposed to be nuts even that far off. I laughed when I read it, thinking yeah like it will take that long to get there...but jeez never thought it'd be there this fast. 2001 it was what, $29/barrel or something?

 

[Shane Adams]

They'll continue to rape us until none of us can afford gas anymore. By then the upper 10 will have their peasant-proof fortresses built, and will hide away in luxury while the rest of us fight in the streets over bread. Kind of a reverse societal morphing back to the way it was when humans first started.

Of course, with all the work force quite depleted by poverty, the upper 10 will only have a finite number of years to live out their fat cat lives, until all resources are gone. No one will be left do the work to make more. So I guess we get the last laugh.

Doesn't seem as funny as it should be.

 

[Mike Hardiman]

OK, so this turned out to be a big rant....

Gas crisis caused by price controls? Not entirely. Religious fanatics in OPEC started the whole mess in 1972 or 73 by declaring an embargo against western nations that were supporting Israel during one of those never-ending skirmishes over there.

The price controls were started during either the Nixon or Ford administration (and of course passed by Congress too), but as typical, these were broken-down tooth-less bills that did not put in enough oversight on oil companies... who were allowed to "claim" scarcity caused by increased demand due to forced "low" prices in order to sabotage the legislation.

What was needed then and is needed now is Nationalization of the oil industry. It is of far too important economic and strategic importance at this time to trust in the hands of corporate greed. The economics of oil and gas are not related 1:1 with supply demand. Has demand for gas actually decreased in the US since 2003 when prices rose sharply? No. Has debt increased, foreclosures increased, etc? Yes.

Nationalize it... deliver it at cost to the consumer, plus taxes for road maintenance and R&D into new technologies to reduce our dependence on oil, and eventually eliminate it. The private sector can then feel free to figure out how to make money off new transportation technologies like fuel cells, etc.

Not enough oil production in the US to meet our needs? Then at least this would minimize the amount of oil we are forced to buy from the Middle East. With the market as complicated as it is right now, you never know where your oil is coming from... it changes hands over and over, and the price is mostly set by speculators in the futures market.

Today's big spike in the price of oil was attributed (according to CBC News) to a report by JP Morgan "predicting" oil prices would reach $150 by July 4th.

Talk about a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Anyone else wonder if these "predictions" and "reports" are fed to the media by the same speculators who profit from fear-based price inflation?

We could also seek trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, and dare I suggest even those "godless commies" in Central America to sell North American oil first to each other, then sell only surplus amounts overseas.

Canada has plenty of oil exploration on-going in the tar sands of Northern Alberta, and offshore oil exploration has been increasing off Newfoundland and Labrador, which has set off a huge debate in the historically-poor province over how royalty payments should be divvied up between the Federal and Provincial governments.

Mexico also has vast oil resources and they already have nationalized gas and oil. Pemex is the only gas station you'll find in Mexico, and the prices are nearly even nationwide. According to an article last week in the El Paso Times, a gallon of gas in Juarez was selling at the equivalent of $2.97/gallon for 87 octane. (I wonder if that's a good enough reason to qualify for a NEXUS pass when I move back to E.P.?)

Of course, I say this like the impacts would not be far-reaching. How does one take over companies without providing restitution to their stockholders? Castro had one idea when he kicked US Oil out of Cuba...

But then again, it is not just the rich who "profit" off Big Oil these days. We all have interests in it. Most people's retirement plans are wrapped up in the stock market, and obviously such a bold move as nationalization of such a large industry would have huge, perhaps unpredictable impacts on the stock market, hurting not only the elite, but the working class with 401K plans, etc. How would China, to whom we owe massive debts, react if we suddenly "shut them off" from North American oil? Maybe it would have a good effect -- they'd kick us out and we'd get manufacturing jobs back in North America again?

It is quite the mess we've made for ourselves. Just goes to show you that there is no black and white, right or wrong answer. Is nationalization even a remotely good idea or is it too narrowly focused? I think the idea should at least be floated about. Then the "fear mongering factor" might just work in our favor.

Heck, Kennedy scared the Steel Industry straight by threatening to Nationalize.

But then again, where's the steel industry in the states these days?

The upside to all this may be the emergence, finally, of alternative "fuels" and forms of energy generation, that previously fell flat because they were economically not viable. It'll take a while though. Even I'm not about to jump out and buy a new super-MPG car since I know it would take several years of driving to make up the cost of a new car in gas savings, versus running my Subaru into the ground. Buying a hybrid may give me "the warm fuzzies" thinking I'm doing something "Green" ... but "warm fuzzies" don't pay the bills!

So instead I try to drive less, combine trips to larger cities like Peoria and Bloomington (I won't go unless I have several reasons to), and I drive slower... i.e., the actual speed limit... 65 rather than 75. Its made about a 3-4 mpg difference (26 vs 22-23mpg), but my car is really touchy. I have a road trip planned for this weekend, and just for "fun" I'm going to take to the backroads doing 55 for a tank or two and see if I can break the car's previous record of 29.6mpg, which it achieved in its much younger days driving US-54 between El Paso and Dalhart, en route to a Kansas chase where I saw my first tornado. (And yes, I realize there's a slight contradiction when complaining about gas prices in one breath, and planning a road trip in the next.)

Glad to spew that load out of me...it was starting to get heavy!

 

[Scott Weberpal]

A local TV met up here has a blog and he references a guy who has done a near-flawless job of gas price predictions...

http://blogs.woodtv.com/?cat=1

Summer 2008 outlook from Patrick (and a little from Bill at the end):
Gasoline:
Gas reset to $4.19 Friday AM 5/30. Late May prices peak to $4.15+, slowly decline into early-to-mid June, perhaps as low as $3. Early July will have much of the same, people will be rejoicing when prices come under $3, but that doesn’t look entirely realistic as hurricane season approaches. Traders will begin focusing on any hurricane that develops, and starting in mid-August, we’ll see prices fluctuate quite a bit. If any Category 3 or higher hurricane strikes West of the Mississippi in the Gulf, expect gasoline to jump right back to Spring highs or even higher. If the 2008 hurricane season is a non-event, expect market fundamentals to kick in and we may see a large correction in gasoline prices. I think that with demand slowing late Summer and oil prices due to come back down, it will boost crack profit, which will entice refiners to make utilization rates climb all summer leading to a potential collapse in prices this fall/winter- perhaps as low as $2.50 starting in October and lasting through mid-November.

Well, this dude was right, but for the wrong reasons

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

We're screwed forever at this point. $134/barrel was huge yesterday.....today? $139

http://www.reuters.com/article/topN...?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true

It's funny when this big climb started a few months ago, some "good forecasting group" had to raise their outlook to a "whopping" $137 by 2012. That had to be less than 6 months ago I read that. $137/barrel was supposed to be nuts even that far off. I laughed when I read it, thinking yeah like it will take that long to get there...but jeez never thought it'd be there this fast. 2001 it was what, $29/barrel or something?

Indeed fun to look back at this now with oil down to $70/barrel with some experts picking it to completely bottom out as low as $20-40/barrel by next year.

Who could have known, though? These things always have a way of balancing out.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I'm not convinced that we're out of the woods yet. OPEC has indicated that it will cut supply to defend what they believe would be reasonable profits on their end.

If demand starts to rise too fast again, which it surely will, and a move towards alternative energy sources doesn't pick up steam, then eventually we'll see higher prices again. The speculation on the market could take another toll once the stock market rebounds.

 

[Shane Adams]

It doesn't take a genius to notice the decline in gas prices coincides quite curiously with the inflating urgency regarding the overall economy

 

[rdale]

But it does take a special person to imply that the petroleum giants are somehow behind the turn of events in our economy because they are worried about cheap gas...

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

 

[David Wolfson]

FWIW, it hasn't been much commented on by the media "experts" that US Public Law 110-246, eneacted June 18th (aka the 2008 Farm Bill) contains provisions in Title XIII that considerably tighten regulations on commodity futures trading. Energy futures prices peaked the end of June and have been steadily downhill since.

What a coincidence.